Investment

» Normxxx - Message from Hays

[Hay's last comment was Wednesday morning --before the big break. He wrote:]
"Stocks have now had four down days in a row, with two of them relatively big down days. That has helped our psychology indicators, but not where they need to be to turn the yellow "caution" light into a green "go" signal....
[Hays position was exquisitely nuanced:]
(1) Very short term optimism -- it's "highly likely that a short-term rally will come either today (Wednesday) or tomorrow, even despite the current negativity in the wake of the inflation news."
[Ouch! But there's always the day after the day after tomorrow— or is Friday it?]
(2) Medium-term pessimism. Hays writes: "The number of stocks making new highs and new lows is one of my favorite ways to 'feel' the internal action of advances and declines." He cites a study by Jason Goepfert of www.sentimentrader.com of the six occasions in the past four decades when the stock market indexes hit new highs, but within the next five days experienced at least 5% of NYSE stocks making new 52-week lows, which occurred on this past Monday. In every case the market was lower one month later, for an average loss of 5.1%. [And for just about every period over the next year!]
(3) Long-term optimism. Hays writes: "Inflation fears will cause big Fed worries, but if we are right we will see the core rate settle down 3-4 months from now. So that fits with market unrest here, and then the return of a healthier bull market in a couple of months."
We just have to get there first.

-- posted by Normxxx

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» Normxxx - 5/25/06 Hays on CNBC Interview

In response to 5/25/06 Hays on CNBC Interview posted by Kirk:

On technology companies he said the current PEs around 18 are very low on an historical and people are ignoring the good news from them about future outlook.

Problem is, he's using average PEs; but we are probably at peak earnings, which make these numbers quite high (even for techs). Hussman uses only peak PEs for statistical comparisons, and he thinks all PEs are way too high.

-- posted by Normxxx

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» Jas_Jain - That is what he said on May 10, 2005:

That is what he said on May 10, 2005:

“So I keep watching this secular trend that I certainly expect to go back AT LEAST to its mean level by 2008. That projects a move by the S&P 500 AT LEAST to 2600 by 2008.”

Rather than 2,600 by 2008, I predict 260 by 2008.

Hays is an old man who is also an American Dupe. Let us revisit this statement in 2008 when the US WILL BE in a depression.

Does anyone recall his giving birth to the Baby Bull in July of 2001?

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

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» Jas_Jain - 2/28/07 CNBC: SOX to Double

In response to 2/28/07 CNBC: SOX to Double posted by Kirk:

--
"Irin (sp?)"

Erin Burnett -- CNBC stole form Bloomberg.

-- posted by Jas_Jain

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» Jas_Jain - 2001 Record -- Re: Hays Predicts 1800 S&P500 this year (5/22/07)

In response to Hays Predicts 1800 S&P500 this year (5/22/07) posted by Kirk:

--
Jul 13, 2001 [SPX = 1215]
Article by Defman/Task
"Hays' bottom was April. Targets for this fall before his predicted fall are Naz 2800 s+p 1400 Dow 12600.We shall see. BTW he predicts final naz low to be in the 1000 area next year. TSC In a midweek report, Don Hays of Hays Advisory. Group in Nashville, Tenn., noted the 39-week moving average of the equity put/call ratio was at an all-time high."

Hays' Commentaries:

Aug 06, 2001 [SPX = 1200]
So we enter this mid-August slow period with no one happy on a short-term basis. But I urge you to keep the faith with the bullish case ... this potential upside break-out will prove to be a big GONG to turn the intense pessimism built up over the last ten months of a deteriorating economy to a more optimistic stance. When that pessimism that has driven trillions of dollars to the sidelines and the safety of money market funds starts to evolve into optimism, finally our patience will be rewarded with some nice upside gains.

Aug 22, 2001
So, with my psychology leg, and the monetary leg solidly on the ground, and the Valuation of the S&P 500 now back to a fairly valued stance, I am more positive about the next few years for the U.S. stock market than I have been since 1996.

Aug 27, 2001
In my opinion, in the next six months the Dow Jones Industrial Average will go to a new all-time record high. I believe in the next one year that the chart above will move up above the 80% zone once again. My target for the Dow, for what it's worth (which isn't much) is 12,600. I still believe that the NASDAQ has a good chance of moving up to the mid-2000's (maybe 2500 would be my new point estimate.)

September 04, 2001 [SPX = 1133]
...I believe as we look back on this juncture in the years to come, it will be very obvious that the period from October of 2000 until August 31, 2001 was a tremendous buying opportunity for the year ahead, and maybe (probably) the years ahead.

Sep 10, 2001 [SPX = 1092]
So yes, I'm nervous, but not even close to being ready to throw in the bullish towel. In fact, just the opposite. I have my critical decision points in place, and as always I will activate them to take a few positions off the table if they mandate me to, but even if they do I will be surprised if a very significant bottom is not being fashioned. I will be very surprised if these last 9 months will not, with the benefit of hindsight be shown to be one of the best buying opportunities in U.S. history.

-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-

Since July 2001, SPX total return has not beaten long-term UST STRIPS and for five years performed no better than the 3-Month US T-Bills.

The next 15 months are more likely to be like Jul'01-Oct'02 than what Hays is predicting. Of course, you would expect this from a bear.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

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» Jas_Jain - Comments On Hays’ S&P500 Target at 1800 By Yearend

--
May 22, 2007

Hays' S&P500 Target at 1800 By Yearend

I started to follow Hays' commentaries in 2001. I recall vividly that he was very bullish during July 2001 to 09/10/01. Appended are some excerpts from that period.

Since July 2001, SPX total return has not beaten long-term UST STRIPS and for five years performed no better than the 3-Month US T-Bills. BTW, the 3-Month T-Bills have out-perfumed S&P500 since its peak in 2000 by 15% despite a very impressive rally recently.

Let us examine Hays' comment of 09/04/01: "...I believe as we look back on this juncture in the years to come, it will be very obvious that the period from October of 2000 until August 31, 2001 was a tremendous buying opportunity for the year ahead, and maybe (probably) the years ahead."

Those who bought S&P500 "from October of 2000 until August 31, 2001" would under-perform 3-Month T-Bills for some 5 years! Now, that was anything but "a tremendous buying opportunity for the year ahead, and maybe (probably) the years ahead."

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

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» Jas_Jain - 2001 Record -- Re: Hays Predicts 1800 S&P500 this year (5/22/07)

In response to 2001 Record -- Re: Hays Predicts 1800 S&P500 this year (5/22/07) posted by Kirk:
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"You have to admit, buying in 2001 in the 1100s and 1200's looks awfully good now with the S&P500 now well above 1500."
"Awfully good" relative to what? At what future risk?
If you believe that stocks are under-valued to fairly valued today then it is one thing, but if they are over-valued, by all long-term historical measures they are, then staying bullish now might be lot worse than in 2001.

7% a year return for 5.75 years is not worth the risk, IMO. I got the same in my UST STRIPS that matures in 2017.

Hays is close to a perma-bull. Even AJC was cautious for a year or two during the past dozen years.
Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

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» Normxxx - A bear in Don Hays' crystal ball

There's a bear in Don Hays' crystal ball
Commentary: He's predicting bull market will end early in 2009 [¹]

By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch | 26 July 2007

NEW YORK (MarketWatch)-- Has the market stabilized? A famous superbull is confident, but what about 2009?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched upward Wednesday after Tuesday's big break.

Maybe it was just a blip.

First, a proprietary word. The Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI), which reflects the average stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at 44.5% Wednesday night.

That's exactly where it stood Tuesday night. After that, Mark Hulbert said that he viewed sentiment as positive from a contrary opinion point of view, because it was so much less enthusiastic than in the spring, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was some 2,000 points lower. See July 25 column

It takes time for the all the hotlines to come in. So it's significant that another 24 hours shows the letters unfazed by Tuesday's 200-point drop.

Second, let's check-in with a raging (but not berserk) bull.

Don Hays of respected institutional service Hays Advisory is a long-time superbull who has gotten over his periodic short-term hesitations, last seen earlier in the summer. See June 18 column

On the face of it, Hays is now as bullish as ever. Earliest this week, his e-service proclaimed "Welcome to the Last Half of this Bull Market." He noted, "The very spirited entrance of this bull market into the last half of its move, that will produce accelerating gains in these next 18-20 months."

For the first time that I recall, however, Hays has begun to suggest that the bull won't be around forever. It appears as throwaway lines "Nobody today is looking at March or April 2009, when our guesstimate is that this bullish stock market might be ready for a meaningful correction (i.e. cyclical bear market.)"

Meanwhile, an issue under the byline of Keith, Hays' son, succinctly summarizes the Hays Grand Strategy.

Inflation, in Hays' view, is currently held down by five factors:

"1. Demographics: An aging world implies lower interest rates and deflationary risks rather than inflation. You have to look no further than Japan as evidence.


2. Fed Obsessed with Inflation: Lived through previous inflation era and is obsessed with it.

3. Technology and the Internet: Internet alone has drastically reduced the cost of information, lowering the cost and improving the productivity of business decisions (Example: airline ticket low price search vs. 10 years ago).

4. Fiscal Policy Competition: U.S. pricing must compete with pricing of every free trade country & vice versa, keeping prices low.

5. Free Trade and Globalization (Glut of Labor): Labor makes up 65-70% of the final cost of goods and services. With a global glut of labor, workers lose their pricing power, putting another lid on inflation."

Or, in another Hays summary:

"
•   The Technology Revolution

produces

•   A Massive New Flat World

which ignites

•   A Spread of Democracy

which unleashes

•   A Huge Sponge of New Consumption,

which launches

•   The Greatest Economic Boom in the History of the World

which results in

•   Huge Stock Market Potential"

I don't immediately see why this happy situation would end as early as 2009.

But, meanwhile, here's Hays' recommended asset allocation:

• Long-term growth: 100% in stocks.


• Moderate growth: 85% in stocks, 15% in bonds.


• Conservative growth: 65% in stocks, 35% in bonds

Normxxx    
______________
The contents of any third-party letters/reports above do not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

The content of any message or post by normxxx anywhere on this site is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. Such is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should always consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Normxxx

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» Normxxx - A bear in Don Hays' crystal ball

In response to A bear in Don Hays' crystal ball posted by Normxxx:

Or, as in normxxx's counter-summary:

•   The Technology Revolution

produces

•   A Massive Counter Revolution

which ignites

•   A Spread of Dictatorships and Theocracies

which unleashes

•   Huge Wars Over Resources, Ethnicities, Religions, and Nationalities

which ends up

•   Destroying Everything in the World

which results in

•   The Greatest Economic Depression in the History of the World

which closes with

•   A Total Stock Market Wipeout and Total Wipeout.

But all in all, the population of the world is reduced by more than half (several billion), and there would then be plenty to go 'round, if we hadn't destroyed everything in the Resource Wars. Coda.

Oh, yeah. The cockroaches take over.

Recommended asset allocation:

• Long-term growth: 0% in stocks.


• Moderate growth: 0% in stocks, 0% in bonds.


• Conservative growth: 0% in stocks, 0% in bonds

Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we all die. (And, to hell with the grandchildren.)

Normxxx    
______________
The contents of any third-party letters/reports above do not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

The content of any message or post by normxxx anywhere on this site is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. Such is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should always consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Normxxx

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» Jas_Jain - Back in the Bull Ring

--
Please see (attached) the latest piece of bull poop from Don hays.

Let us see, Hays predicted S&P 500 to end 2007 at 1,800 juts few months ago. He gave birth to "the baby bull" in August 2001. He turned very bullish earlier in 2001:

06/15/01 Hays: significant buying opportunity is VERY close at hand

07/16/01 Hays Bullish with targets of 12,600 and 2500-2800 [Dow and NASTYQ!, respectively]

At the time the S&P 500 was in 1200s the same as in September 2005 when he "told clients to expect gains of 100%-plus in the next couple of years:"

"In late September [2005!], Hays told clients to expect gains of 100%-plus in the next couple of years, in part due to vast piles of individual and corporate cash being put to work amid "the reinvigoration" of the U.S. dollar and productivity. "The monetary liquidity floating around the world is so humongous, it is impossible to describe all the pockets overflowing and looking for a home," he said, adding that he believes U.S. GDP is on track to double to a 7% annualized rate, while inflation will remain in a 1%-to-2% range over the next decade."

http://www.thestreet.com/funds/supermode...

As you can see from the above, Hays is not a bull but an ass. I feel even better about my call of the Market TOP, made in real-time, on October 11, 2007, than I did before.

Jas

-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-

MONDAY, DECEMBER 3, 2007

Back in the Bull Ring
Don Hayes, chief investment officer, Hays Advisory Group
By SANDRA WARD

DON'T EXPECT CONVENTIONAL WISDOM from longtime market seer Don Hays. But count on his contrarian bent and uncommon skill in determining the direction of the stock market to make you money. For close to 40 years, Hays has been helping investors get the best read on important trends and subtle shifts in the economy and the market, through a variety of technical gauges he monitors at his Nashville, Tenn.-based Hays Advisory Group. Twice a week he provides colorful commentary and his own special take on the state of the markets. The firm also recommends sectors and individual stocks and manages $2 billion on behalf of clients. After a brief spell of caution in mid-October, Hays turned 100% bullish a few weeks ago and hasn't looked back.

Barron's: You, a longtime bull, turned cautious in mid-October. What's your stance now?

Hays: We developed a matrix in 1987 based on investor psychology, monetary conditions and stock valuations that we use exclusively in determining allocations. This is what determines how much cash we have. We don't argue with it. Right now, for long-term growth it points to 100% equities, zero cash and zero bonds. That compares with Oct. 15, when investor psychology signaled we should raise cash in our portfolio to 8%. But we put it all back in a few weeks ago.

...

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB1196...

-- posted by Jas_Jain

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