Investment

» Normxxx - Money Markets Become a Concern

Investor Safe Haven Money Market Funds Become a Concern
http://normxxxruminates.blogspot.com/200...

-- posted by Normxxx

» Normxxx - Credit Crisis Meltdown

Credit Crisis Meltdown Is a Prelude to Global Economic Depression
http://normxxxruminates.blogspot.com/200...

-- posted by Normxxx

» Normxxx - SIVs Hit Norway Towns

Citibank SIVs Hit Norway Townships
Several Norway townships are caught up in the international credit crisis.
http://normxxxruminates.blogspot.com/200...

-- posted by Normxxx

» permabear - Is Suite 101 investment really up and running again?

I clicked over to Suite 101 to find a link and discovered this site is up and running again. Can someone give me a quick update on what's going on? It looks like the site is still pretty inactive. I guess folks like myself will have to rediscover that it's active.

For a recap of the past couple months are things not playing out like myself, Norm, Jas and many other bears have been warning about for a while? Folks who have followed my posts know that I have stuck to my guns on the secular bear market thesis. Despite the goldilocks hullabaloo from all the bulls about how great things were, the stock market never could convincingly break through its old S&P 500 2000 highs in the 1550 range. I actually bought QID (shorting the NASDAQ) when it last tested the highs a month ago. Still holding for a nice profit.

In other areas the dollar continues to deteriorate just as I predicted. While gold has corrected a bit, precious metals have been one of the great investment stories in a very chaotic market of late. I sold my energy and commodity investments a little early, but still hold a bit. While folks like Jim Rogers are predicting a long term bull market in commodities, I really am uncertain about their prospects with the economy melting down. Normally commodities should get killed in a recessionary environment. So with my own uncertainty about prospects for commodities, I personally lightened up quite a bit.

I kind of feel like the stock market may be testing short term lows, and am getting a little tempted to take profits on the QID trade, but I remain convinced the longer term is going to be ugly. Short term trading has never been my forte. Any thoughts on short term action would be welcome.

In the larger economic front, the housing market continues to deteriorate as many of us have predicted for a couple of years. The credit market is obviously in very shaky shape. It remains to be seen if it totally melts down or can somehow stabilize. As a permabear I continue to bet on the meltdown scenario, with housing the catalyst.

As far as timing goes, Norm's prediction of a 2009 timeframe for the calamity remains a good possibility, although the way things are playing out, we could be seeing the first stages right now. If Norm is right the Fed and powers that be will be able to hold off the bad times for a while longer. I don't know if we're going to see that big rebound in stocks he's predicting. All the indices are breaking down the DOW theorists say we are back in a bear market.

Hey it's good to see this site back up and running. I continue to post on The Daily Reckoning. But with hundreds of posters over there, an individual can get lost in the muddle. With the small group posting here, every individual's opinions carry that much more weight.

-- posted by permabear

» Inya Ivkovic - Is Suite 101 investment really up and running again?

In response to Is Suite 101 investment really up and running again? posted by permabear:

Welcome back permabear and wishing you and everyone visiting Suite101 pages Happy Thanksgiving!

» allancoleman - Is Suite 101 investment really up and running again?

In response to Is Suite 101 investment really up and running again? posted by permabear:

As Inya said , permabear , welcome back . I'm still posting on the usual forums here and am presently out of the market waiting for Sy Harding's MACD buy signal to get back in . Excellent time to be on the sidelines watching MACDs continue their downtrend .

-- posted by allancoleman

» permabear - Is Suite 101 investment really up and running again?

In response to Is Suite 101 investment really up and running again? posted by allancoleman:

Allan and Inya,

Happy Thanksgiving to you and everyone else.

Allan, you've stuck to your guns staying out of the market. The bulls gave you heck about it, but in the end it may have been a very wise move with this volatile, directionless market we're seeing. The last few months have been very uncharacteristic of historical patterns with the market rising in Sept, Oct. and falling in November. I don't know how well Sy Harding's seasonal strategies are going to work in a market that is defying historical trends.

But like I say, I am no one to predict short term swings. I just have stuck to my convictions that we are in a secular bear market. I think Brinker really blew it when he called off his secular bear market call. If Brinker missed the start of the bear market, which I think he did, it will be very interesting radio on Saturdays and Sundays on Moneytalk. Brinker's screener is going to have to really stay on the ball to avoid all the angry Marketimer subscribers who take it on the chin following Brinker's long term bullish advice.

-- posted by permabear

» somedude3 - Is Suite 101 investment really up and running again?

In response to Is Suite 101 investment really up and running again? posted by permabear:

Happy T- day bear. What will a complete meltdown or calamity scenario look like? Will unemployment get to ten, twenty, thirty percent? Will the stock market go down eighty or ninty percent? Will we have soup lines? Will gold be the dominant form of currency? If the stock market, bond market, dollar and commodities no good where do you put you're wealth? Appreciate any suggestions.

-- posted by somedude3

» allancoleman - Is Suite 101 investment really up and running again?

In response to Is Suite 101 investment really up and running again? posted by permabear:

You'll like Inya , permabear . She's a nice lady .

You're right about the bulls giving me a difficult time , permabear , but sometimes the bull wins and sometime the bear wins . And right now I'm ahead of most of the indices year to date and getting ready to hit one of Warren Buffetts' fat pitch home runs .

Bob's still bullish and his November 5 newsletter is calling for mid - 1600's by next year . If I can pick up the S & P at anything around 1450 and get out around 1550 or 1600 , I won't be greedy and wait for the top . You're right , it'll be difficult to keep all of Bob's callers on track this weekend . Maybe Bob'll just skip and let Bill carry the ball for him .

-- posted by allancoleman

» eccm - Is Suite 101 investment really up and running again?

In response to Is Suite 101 investment really up and running again? posted by allancoleman:

Bob's still bullish and his November 5 newsletter is calling for mid - 1600's by next year . If I can pick up the S & P at anything around 1450 and get out around 1550 or 1600 , I won't be greedy and wait for the top . You're right , it'll be difficult to keep all of Bob's callers on track this weekend . Maybe Bob'll just skip and let Bill carry the ball for him .

I don't follow Brinker closely anymore. What does he mean by "mid 1600's by next year"? By Jan? (probably not.) By Year end? "Cyclically" speaking the peak should be just before the elections BUT that could just about equal the ~April/May peak after a summer dip. And just because he's bullish doesnt mean we can't go lower from here then bounce straight up for a few months. (That'd be so cool!)

-- posted by eccm