Investment

» allancoleman - GNMAs down today

As expected the nav prices of our favorite Vanguard GNMA funds ( VFIIX & VFIJX ) closed down to $10.35 today .

Observations :

VFIJX = 1.43% ytd with a 4.92% yield
VBTLX = 1.14% ytd with a 4.44% yield
VMMXX = 1.14% ytd with a 2.42% yield
VWEAX = + 0.76% ytd with a 8.43% yield and closed unchanged
VTSMX = ( - 4.18% ) ytd with a 1.93% yield
VFINX = ( - 4.24% ) ytd with a 2.06% yield

May come back later this evening and post my personal 401(k) performance if it's come down enough to make it worth my while . Needless to say though I think I will make up all my losses year to date , almost - $228k , and go on to breakeven and have a profit year to date by year's end .

-- posted by allancoleman

» allancoleman - 401(k) performance year to date

Made over $154k year to date since this correction began . Have over $74k left to go to break even on almost a $228k loss at one time .

Year to date 401(k) performance is ( - 4.2% ) which compares very well with the S & P 500 fund ( VFINX ) at ( - 4.24% ) ytd and the Total Stock market fund ( VTSMX ) at ( - 4.1% ) ytd .

It's a long hard slow slug but the trend is right .

-- posted by allancoleman

» allancoleman - Yields

Some yields changed overnite :

VFIJX increased to 4.93%
VBTLX increased to 4.45%
VMMXX stayed the same at 2.42%
VWEAX stayed the same at 8.43% making my average weighted yield between this and my GNMA fund 5.91%

It'll be interesting to track the money market fund and others after the Fed meeting next week to see where our yields might settle out .

-- posted by allancoleman

» allancoleman - Interest rate outlook

Most Fed watchers indicate a quarter point rate reduction from 2.25% to 2.00% this next Wednesday with some looking for either none or possibily a half . Most look for a pause . And surprisinly most look for a Fed funds rate at year's end ( 2008 ) to be 2.25% which might mean a rate hike before year's end . All of this means not much change going forward through year's end .

This would indicate that we may have seen the high for our GNMA funds at $10.55 and the low , $10.25 , established .

Surf calls .

-- posted by allancoleman

» allancoleman - Interest rate outlook

My Fed go - to - guy , Greg , confirms what I'm also reading from other sources on the expected Fed action later this week :

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/fed/fed...

This could very well mean we have seen a bottom in our money market yields ( VMMXX ) and the top in our GNMA nav prices ( VFIIX & VFIJX ) . I was looking for more rate cuts below 2% to give us new GNMA nav prices above the $10.55 we've already seen . However , this also means that GNMA yields may have also bottomed and will now rise back above 5% . . And the long term goal of most GNMA investors is the increased yields over money market or CD yields and not higher GNMA nav prices .

This still leaves the Fed with the problem of how to produce lower overall mortgage rates to ease borrowers monthly payments in the future and to make new buyers able to afford to buy up more housing inventory that's out there in the overbuilt housing market .

-- posted by allancoleman

» allancoleman - GNMAs up today ? ?

With the ten year treasury yields trading slightly lower today , the nav prices of our favorite Vanguard GNMAs could close higher today but I don't look for much change in GNMA prices this close to the Fed meeting on Wednesday .

Surf calls .

-- posted by allancoleman

» allancoleman - GNMAs up today

As expected , the nav prices of our favorite Vanguard GNMA funds ( VFIIX & VFIJX ) closed up to $10.37 a share today .

Observations :

VFIJX = 1.66% ytd with a 4.93% yield
VBTLX = 1.38% ytd with a 4.45% yield
VMMXX = 1.16% ytd with a 2.42% yield
VWEAX = 1.00% ytd with a 8.43% yield and closed up to $5.81 today

Stock markets closed mostly flat to slightly down today .

Last morning surfing was this morning . Will go to the beach again tomorrow morning before topping off my gas tank with high test and a can of Stabl - Fuel before running it through the car wash after leaving that particular beach for the last time before returning next fall .

-- posted by allancoleman

» allancoleman - Yields

All yields changed overnite :

VFIJX increased to 4.94%
VBTLX increased to 4.46%
VMMXX decreased to 2.41%
VWEAX decreased to 8.38%

Observations :

Looks like Vanguard's money market fund ( VMMXX ) is on it's downward path trend again .

My average weighted yield between my highest quality GNMAs and my High - Yield ( junk ) bond fund has decreased to 5.90%

-- posted by allancoleman

» allancoleman - GNMAs up today ? ?

With the ten year treasury yield trading lower again today , we could very well see the nav prices of our favorite Vanguard GNMA funds ( VFIIX & VFIJX ) close higher again today .

-- posted by allancoleman

» Arkhog - GNMAs up today ? ?

Moving more money back to Vanguard ,Do you think the high yield (junk) bond fund is a smart way to go in this economic enviroment ? All my bond holdings are in the Admiral GNMA and short term Corporate.
Thanks Arkhog

-- posted by Arkhog