Investment

» Jas_Jain - RE:RE: The WSJ - "Bush, Democrats Rush to Roll Out Stimulus

In response to RE: The WSJ - "Bush, Democrats Rush to Roll Out Stimulus Plan" posted by cpa61:
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Very very smart thinkig. But, you may chicken out.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Normxxx - RE: The WSJ - "Bush, Democrats Rush to Roll Out Stimulus Plan"

In response to RE: The WSJ - "Bush, Democrats Rush to Roll Out Stimulus Plan" posted by cpa61:

But you could do much better than to take the advice of someone who totally missed a 5-year BULL market!

As for Mike Alexander, he's still smarting because Mike had him kicked off the Longwaves site!

-- posted by Normxxx

» Jas_Jain - RE: The WSJ - "Bush, Democrats Rush to Roll Out Stimulus Plan"

In response to RE: The WSJ - "Bush, Democrats Rush to Roll Out Stimulus Plan" posted by Normxxx:

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XXX: "But you could do much better than to take the advice of someone who totally missed a 5-year BULL market!"

You are guilty of hiding the whole truth and telling half-truths. I started to give advice publicly in July 1998 -- to avoid Scams -- and the S&P 500 is up, RIGHT NOW, a sum total of 6.5% in 9.5 years with a yield of roughly 1.5%. That is a pathetic performance by any standards.

You are a Bad Loser because the Big One did begin in 2007 and not in 2009 as you were claiming for some two years. You lost and get with it. Or, is it hard for the trained psychologists to deal with a loss?

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Inya Ivkovic - The WSJ - "Fears of Recession Spark Global Selloffs"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB12009628...

» Jas_Jain - The WSJ - "Fears of Recession Spark Global Selloffs"

In response to The WSJ - "Fears of Recession Spark Global Selloffs" posted by iivkovic:

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It IS the reality, and the fear, of the recession that is sparking the global selloffs. Crooks, including the Fed, keep lying about recession and recession odds.

The markets have now priced 75-80% odds of a recession when, in fact, it is 100% already. So. the global markets have more to go down.

Later this year, the markets will start to price depression in the US.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Inya Ivkovic - The WSJ - "Stocks Show Classic Bear Signals, Impact Global"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB12010494...

» Normxxx - Bon Appetit

Bon Appetit
Bargains On Wall Street

http://normxxx.blogspot.com/2008/01/bon-...

-- posted by Normxxx

» permabear - Bon Appetit

In response to Bon Appetit posted by Normxxx:

About 40 companies in the S&P 500 now trade below book value, which often can provide a floor underneath stock prices. Nearly all the major home builders, for instance, are trading below book. Lennar (LEN) and Pulte Homes (PHM) now fetch about 50% of book value, while Toll Brothers (TOL), the high-end specialist, trades for 80% of book.

A housing recovery could be a year or more away, but the home builders seem to be discounting a dire financial outlook given their current share prices. The combined market value of eight big home builders, Lennar, D.R. Horton (DHI), Toll, Centex (CTX), NVR (NVR), Pulte, KB Home (KBH) and MDC Holdings (MDC) stands at less than $20 billion, down from $80 billion at the peak in 2005.

Regional-bank shares have been pummeled in the past year, falling an average of 35%. The result is that dividend yields on many bank stocks are 5% or higher. Big regionals like Wachovia Bank (WB), at 30.80, yields 8.3%; Wells Fargo (WFC), at 25.48, yields 4.7%; and giant Bank of America (BAC), at 35.97, yields 7%.

I can see a short-term rally, but recommending home builders and banks in the current environment is a real stretch:

Merrill Lynch says U.S. nationwide home prices may fall 30%

By Chris Oliver
Last update: 10:12 p.m. EST Jan. 22, 2008Print RSS Disable Live Quotes

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Merrill Lynch forecasts nationwide U.S. home prices could decline 25% to 30% over the next three years, as new supply and weak demand weigh on the market. "This sounds dire... but would only reverse part of the unprecedented 130% price surge from 2000 to 2006," wrote economist David Rosenberg in a research note released Wednesday. Rosenberg added the S&P 500 may decline an additional 20% to 25% to breach the 1,100-point level if the market follows historical precedents at times when the U.S. economy is in recession.

-- posted by permabear

» Inya Ivkovic - The WSJ - "Where Have Buybacks Gone?"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB12011394...

» Normxxx - Bon Appetit

In response to Bon Appetit posted by permabear:

Banks I dunno about. But for homebuilders, the nadir for their stocks is usually about 2 years before the start of their sales recovery. So, you have to do some gambling- just make sure you don't buy one that's likely to BK. Or, you could buy a homebuilder's ETF: http://www.exchangetradedfunds.cc/

Personally, I agree it's probably too early- but not to start nibbling.

Remember, the apéritif precedes the entré.

-- posted by Normxxx