Investment

» axolotl - There are always problems on the horizon

....Demorats are not the people that are better at government and economics. I saw problems ahead back in 06, but not the size. Size is like C will have a $35 billion write off rather than a mild $5 billion. Isn't C where the demorat genius Rubin works? I think that Bernanke has been too sloooooooow and that may be the reason a recession develops and there may be a no. of banks that cannot take a recession on top of the mortgage problem. However, I predict that any recession will be relatively mild and short. Bernanke said the "subprime" was not going to spread and he has said that the economy was only slowing............maybe we should expect the opposite of his predictions?

-- posted by axolotl

» permabear - There are always problems on the horizon

axolotl,

It sounds like you watch a lot of CNBC. I admit to it myself. Just about all the positions you posited I hear endlessly on CNBC from early morning on. To address some of your major points:

I think that Bernanke has been too sloooooooow and that may be the reason a recession develops and there may be a no. of banks that cannot take a recession on top of the mortgage problem.

Bernanke is being set-up as the fall guy for the recession and stock market fall for being too slow and "behind the curve". The problem is that Fed action in the past coming to the rescue of the economy every time it began to hiccup is a big part of the problem we face today. There is a reason that the U.S. economy hasn't faced a serious recession in 30 years. Every time that the economy began to experience recession, the Fed would come in with big rate cuts and liquidity injections to artificially stimulate the economy by creating new bubbles to replace old bubbles. The longer that excesses were allowed to fester the deeper the American consumer became steeped in debt, the more the American economy depended on foreigners to fund its government and private excesses, and the more imbalances were allowed to build.

However, I predict that any recession will be relatively mild and short.

I hear this all the time. Just like I heard how the housing prices would never fall, because they never did before nationally, just like the housing market was hitting bottom and would turn up soon, just like the American consumer would never falter because he/she has been robust for so long, etc. etc. This is the conventional Wall Street view that lives in total denial. The reality is that the housing and credit problems are the deepest since the great depression. The banks have never faced the problems they do today since the Great Depression. The consumer is in the deepest debt since the Great Depression. The American government and economy is more in debt to foreigners than ever in history (during the Great Depression the U.S. was a creditor nation not the biggest debtor nation on earth as it is today). In short, the problems the U.S. economy faces are not of the minor variety. They are deep doodoo problems. And CNBC analysts who say that it will all be rosy by the second half are living in a dream world.

Bernanke said the "subprime" was not going to spread and he has said that the economy was only slowing............maybe we should expect the opposite of his predictions?

You think? Now you're finally on the right track.
Getting back to your very first point and to correct one last fallacy.

Democrats are not the people that are better at government and economics.

Sorry to break it to you, but the stock market has performed better under democratic presidents than it has under republican presidents.

-- posted by permabear

» permabear - Stock market performs better under the democrats

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/colu...

Using the Dow Jones industrial average as the benchmark, Stock Trader's Almanac shows a $10,000 investment compounded during Democratic presidencies since 1901 would be worth $279,705 after 48 years. The same $10,000 investment during 56 Republican years would have been worth just $78,699. If you adjust for inflation, the value of a $10,000 investment under Democratic presidents is $33,426. The inflation-adjusted value under Republican presidents is $26,145.

-- posted by permabear

» axolotl - Stock market performs better under the democrats

In response to Stock market performs better under the democrats posted by permabear:

The stock market is not the economy and I prefer the "Super Bowl" indicator over the "demorat" indicator. Bernanke, according to Permabear, has no clue but is being set up to be the fall guy? Maybe he deserves to be the fall guy. I got it - demorats = good and Repubs = bad?

-- posted by axolotl

» Jas_Jain - Re: Stock market performs better under the democrats

In response to Stock market performs better under the democrats posted by permabear:

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The former stock market (and the Scam Market since 1995) and the economy always do better when conflicts of interests (COI) between the workers and the capital are resolved in the favor of the workers and do poorly when capital gains the control! The Capitalistic Crooks kill and eat the golden goose.

What allows Capitalistic Crooks to get the upper hand over the workers? Pushing Debt! Pushing of Debt makes Capitalistic Crooks of America evildoers. They get rich via their evil deeds. Unfortunately, both parties today are controlled by the Capitalistic Crooks of America. Crooks know the value of owning the govt. Let us face the simple fact: American People are impotent, politically. I have no interest in theories; I limit myself to the practice, as it exists.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» permabear - Re: Stock market performs better under the democrats

In response to Re: Stock market performs better under the democrats posted by Jas_Jain:

Jas,

Sometimes you have a way of saying things that sound so extreme that you probably turn a lot of folks off. But I think the thesis of your message is accurate. The rich and powerful have used government for their own ends and not necessarily in the better interest of the larger American people or nation as a whole. The whole political system is corrupted by money. Special interests rule Washington. And while it is true that the democrats are very guilty catering to the powerful interests as well, I feel it is inherent in the republican antiregulation, pro-corporation philosophy to favor the powers that be even more than the democrats. This is why the imbalances and downside of free market capitalism get accentuated when republicans have the reigns of power. This is why the stock market performs better under democrats. This is why republican party power leads itself to Great Depressions.

But I do agree, democrat or republican, the whole system needs an overhaul. To begin with we need public financing of campaigns.

-- posted by permabear

» Jas_Jain - Slaughter of America Pigs...

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See:
http://investment.suite101.com/discussio...

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» permabear - Key supports have been broken

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickch...

If the stock market losses hold today, key supports will have been broken to the downside. S&P 500 1370 was the low for August 2007. These lows have just been violated. While a bear market is defined as losses of 20 percent, I don't see how folks can deny that the bear market is officially underway.

-- posted by permabear

» Jas_Jain - Re: Key supports have been broken

In response to Key supports have been broken posted by permabear:

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Bear markets, when induced by recessions, take down the market 25-50%. However, we are heading straight into the depression before 2009, a favorite date for XXX for the party to continue before the Big One, we are taking about much bigger haircut than 50%. There are no supports in the quicksand.

Slaughter of America Pigs will be merciless. And why not!

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - Re: Stock market performs better under the democrats

In response to Re: Stock market performs better under the democrats posted by permabear:

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"Jas, Sometimes you have a way of saying things that sound so extreme that you probably turn a lot of folks off. But I think the thesis of your message is accurate."

Truth is extremely displeasing to Americans who love humor over truth any minute of the day. America's ruling Crooks know this fact. They entertain Americans while fleecing them at the same time. There must be benefits to breeding dopes!

I know the ugliness of the American system inside out and the true picture is horrifying. Americans take solace in entertainment. American Idol! Whores of all kinds are necessary to entertain and provide cheap thrills.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain