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InvestmentUS Stock Market
« Previous 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 Next » » axolotl - NASTY DAY - MARKET ACTS LIKE BEFORE In response to NASTY DAY - MARKET ACTS LIKE BEFORE posted by axolotl:
-- posted by axolotl » Normxxx - Retail Sales: Not A Happy Story Retail Sales: Not A Happy Story http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
In early 2000, the peak in the actual retail data we prefer to use coincided almost directly with the peak in the S&P retail sector. In like manner, the bottom in 2003 for real retail trends coincided with the bottom for the stocks that represent the sector. The point being that stock prices followed industry fundamentals. As of the end of October, the S&P retail index is barely off of the summertime August closing lows. So far this year, the retail index peaked in May and June at around 536 and is now around 461. Price response of the retailers post the second rate cut in late October? The S&P retail index couldn't even muster a mildly positive day. The retailers are telling a story to those who choose to listen. Additionally and quite importantly, at least as has been true historically, in monetary easing cycles past, top equity sector performance has been seen in the financials and the consumer discretionary stocks (the retailers). So far in our current rate cutting cycle, the financials and the consumer discretionary stocks are in an all out race for dead last in terms of relative S&P sector performance. This is clearly a major divergence with past macro equity market response in prior monetary easing cycles. And so we're to believe this is a normal Fed rate cutting cycle where the domestic economy is stimulated, borrowing and spending increases in response to lower rates, and everyone lives happily ever after? At least for now, the collective message found in these glaring divergences of the moment is that the equity market itself begs to differ. -- posted by Normxxx » axolotl - JIMMY ROGERS ON THE MARKETS The most annoying (to me) commentator on the markets appeared on Bloomberg. The bowtie one says he moved to Singapore but he is still a citizen? He keeps appearing on American tv (is he paid?) and obviously wants to sell his new book and get publicity. He said Bernanke is a nut. He admitted that he was wrong about the Indian market but he favors China because he has a book and his whole thesis is about the China "century" ahead. The outside world sees China as cheap labor, period. Within China, the story is the economy changing from the Mao communist model to free markets. Jimmy just continues to annoy and put his head in the sand over the negatives and problems of China. He urges investing in the Chinese currency by using an online account that pays no interest so that you will be dependent on appreciation of the Chinese currency - he says it will go up several times over the next decade. Uh, Jimmy, just buy Berkshire Hathaway - it is just as likely to go up over the next decade too. Final annoyance - he says that he is the world's worst short term trader but that he will have to cover his Citi short on Mon. if the CEO is ousted. I would love to appear with Jimmy so that I could point out his many contradictions and other annoyances. -- posted by axolotl » Normxxx - Kass: Bear Sees Year-End Rally Kass: This Bear Sees a Year-End Rally http://normxxxruminates.blogspot.com/200... -- posted by Normxxx » Normxxx - He Called Enron. Now? The Man Who Called Enron: What He's Saying Now http://normxxxruminates.blogspot.com/200... -- posted by Normxxx » Normxxx - A Whisper From London City Gurus A Whisper In Your Ear From City Gurus http://normxxxruminates.blogspot.com/200... -- posted by Normxxx » Jas_Jain - Earnings – Very Bad News for Scam Lovers -- Glossary: Scam Lover = stock market bull (stock market exists to allow scamming of the public) Earnings - Very Bad News for Scam Lovers David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch; 11/23/07: "The earnings recession is here -- The earnings recession is here and, without pulling any punches, the news is bad: With 90% of companies reporting, 3Q operating EPS fell 8.5% year-over-year. This compares to +9.6% in 2Q and +11.6% a year ago, and is the worst showing since 4Q01... "Financials now represent 30% of the total profit pie -- There is considerable temptation to strip financial-related earnings out of the pie to show how wonderful it is in the other parts of the market (though consumer discretionary isn't faring that much better). But the reality is that financial-related "What has been more shocking is reported earnings -- Against this backdrop, what has been more shocking so far in the third quarter earnings season has been the "reported" numbers, which unlike the operating earnings do not strip out the charge-offs incurred. Here the results were even more abysmal as reported EPS plunged 28% YoY, which was the worst print since the fourth quarter of 2002... And, the folks at S&P tell us that the worst is not yet behind us. This is key because in the final analysis, it's nice to talk about "operating" earnings, but it is "reported" earnings that investors pay for. For one, it is hardly clear that these current charge-offs are going to be "non-recurring" - Freddie Mac's writedown is a sign that nothing has really been "kitchen sinked". 3Q goes down as the fifth worst third quarter since 1945... "When doing the valuation analysis on reported earnings, under the proviso that we see a typical recession/write-down scenario, then the historical record suggests that investors are looking at forward P/E multiple closer to 25x... Moreover, the current $15.29 estimate for reported EPS is the lowest level of earnings since the fourth quarter of 2004. And where was the S&P 500 trading at that time? Answer: It averaged 1,162 that quarter - just in case you were thinking of buying this dip." 2008 is shaping up to be the year of "Slaughter of America Pigs, China Bulls, and India Goats" to begin in earnest. Are Scam Lovers sacrificial lambs? That question would be fully, and unambiguously, answered by 2010 in the depth of depression. Jas -- posted by Jas_Jain » Normxxx - What to Ask Mr. Market What to Ask Mr. Market [Barron's] http://normxxxruminates.blogspot.com/200... -- posted by Normxxx » Jas_Jain - Bad News for Scams -- 3-Year US Treasuries Are Closing In On 3% -- NOTE: Under the upcoming deflationary depression scenario, Good News for Treasuries is Very Bad News for Scams. 3-Year US Treasuries Are Closing In On 3%. Scam Lovers are the biggest dupes in the world. A UST bond lover for 15 years and a Scam hater for ten years, Jas PS: I have also loved gold and Swissie for the past ten years. Nothing wrong in having few mistresses. -- posted by Jas_Jain » Normxxx - Dead Men Walking Surreality Check... Dead Men Walking http://normxxxruminates.blogspot.com/200... -- posted by Normxxx « Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 Next » Please follow the guidelines set forth in the Suite101 Posting Etiquette when adding to the discussion. |
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