Investment

» Normxxx - Pay Drops for College-Educated Workers

In response to Pay Drops for College-Educated Workers posted by Bill_Duffy:

It gets worse. Suppose you want to be a thoracic surgeon. That's 4 years of college, 4 years of med school, and 6 years of internship/residency. But you are expected to begin paying back your loans by 4 years past medical school—
so, you still have 2 years of residency to go! Small wonder that many such residencies are coming up short (about 20% of vacancies were unfilled last year) and we should have a real shortage of thoracic surgeons in the not too distant future.

Neurosurgery requires at least 7 years of internship/residency.

-- posted by Normxxx

» Normxxx - Pay Drops for College-Educated Workers

In response to Pay Drops for College-Educated Workers posted by Kirk:

Residents should be paid better so the transition from medical school to unsupervised surgeon with 8 years residence behind them comes with better pay each year.

Residents are no longer paid "starvation wages." However, as you can see below, it's not exactly largesse. (The going average net income for a cardiothoracic surgeon in the D.C. area is around $450,000.)

Residents get enough to live on— but hardly enough to begin paying off their debts.

House Staff

Yale-New Haven offers its residents a comprehensive benefits package. The following is a summary of the various house staff benefits offered at Yale-New Haven Hospital.

Financial Support (2002-2003)
PGY1 $40,100
PGY2 $41,750
PGY3 $44,000
PGY4 $45,400
PGY5 $47,400
PGY6 $48,750
PGY7 $50,200

Administrative Chief Residents receive an additional $3,000.00, or a portion of it if shared with other Administrative Chief Residents.

Vacation: 2-4 weeks, at the discretion of the department and its needs.

Professional Leave: Professional leaves are determined at the discretion of the department on an individual basis due to need.

But, any substantial increase would have to be passed on to the patient and/or his third party payers, such as medicare...

As to how long it takes to get there, I misspoke; it can take from 6 to 8 years.

Training

After four years of medical school, these highly-trained doctors spend from six to eight more years in specialized training. A cardiologist receives three years of training in internal medicine and three or more years in specialized cardiology training. A pediatric cardiologist receives three years of training in pediatrics, and three or more years in specialized pediatric cardiology training. A cardiac surgeon must complete five years of training in general surgery before starting a two-or three-year cardiothoracic training program. Some cardiac surgeons have additional training to perform pediatric or transplant surgery.

Normxxx    
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The contents of any third-party letters/reports above do not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

The content of any message or post by normxxx anywhere on this site is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. Such is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should always consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Normxxx

» seneca194 - Full of crap...

Kirk,

You're so full of crap, it isn't funny...

-- posted by seneca194

» muckdog - Possible Future?

In response to Possible Future? posted by Kirk:

As Jim Cramer says, there is always a bull market somewhere.

Kirk did you have a large weighting in small cap, bond, and REIT holdings during the bear market from 2000-2? Those did well.

-- posted by muckdog

» hickfish - Full of crap...

In response to Full of crap... posted by seneca194:

Seneca, this is pretty weak. Probably says a lot about you.

Someone needed to say it.

-- posted by hickfish

» Normxxx - Presidential Elections & Market Bottoms

In response to Presidential Elections & Market Bottoms posted by Kirk:

Note: None of the bottoms occurred in the last two or first three months of the year— with the exception of March, 1978 of the 1977 - 1980 cycle, which was a somewhat strange cycle, and December, 1987 of the 1985 - 1988 cycle, which was a maximally strange cycle. Of the remaining 14 bottoms, six were in October, two each in each of the months May, June, and August, and one each in May and September. Note that July (actually the best net return month of the summer for the S&P 500 since 1950) also had no bottoms.

Looking ahead, a negative July increases the odds of a negative August and/or September. But, on average since 1950, August has had a 0.00% return for the year, but September was easily the worst month of the year over that period (the only negative month) for a net return of -0.67%. Since October clocked in at 0.86% (average is 0.73%), the traditional October low is more often not in the latter part of the month. The strongest month is November, at 1.78%, closely followed by December at 1.71%, and January at 1.38%.

The only bottom years not in the off-presidential election year were the bottoms in 1949 - 1960 and, of course, in that weird cycle 1985 - 1988.

Normxxx    
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The contents of any third-party letters/reports above do not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

The content of any message or post by normxxx anywhere on this site is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. Such is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should always consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Normxxx

» Normxxx - Re-consider...

Re-consider

On July 11 I made the observation that:

• "If the SPX makes a new low or even challenges the June closing low of 1223 in the latter part of July, then we may very well fall straight down from there.
• "However, if weakness and new lows are NOT seen in the latter part of July, then history suggests that


• "a rally is likely to persist through August and into September, and that a (weak and failing) test of the May highs will occur in that time frame, and
• "a sharp decline (but one that is contained by the summer lows) should follow in the latter part of September that lasts into October."

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The contents of any third-party letters/reports above do not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

The content of any message or post by normxxx anywhere on this site is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. Such is intended for purposes only. Individuals should alwaysconsult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Normxxx

» allancoleman - Re-consider...

In response to Re-consider... posted by Normxxx:

Hello Normxxx ,

hope your observation is correct . look to sell out next week and buy back into the market at Sy's favorable season later this fall .

as a personal observation on Sy's investing strategy , after having stayed out of the stock market the last couple of summers and not trying to catch a summer rally , Sy unfavorable season ; and now in the mist of trying to catch a summer rally , i'm not so sure i'll try it again next year .

it seemed easier just following Sy and selling in May and going away and not even thinking about the stock market levels until much later in the fall . course there's this middle east war , mid - term election correction , and inverted yield curve , that's made this summer problematical , but still it might have been easier to have just followed Sy and stayed out .

-- posted by allancoleman

» Normxxx - Re-consider...

In response to Re-consider... posted by allancoleman:

it seemed easier just following Sy and selling in May and going away and not even thinking about the stock market levels until much later in the fall.

You're right! Remember Taleb's warning: the more closely you follow your results— the more unhappy you will be (and the more 'noise' you will see). His recommendation was to check only once a year! I am still following Sy's advice, and I don't believe the market got much above the point of exit, and is certainly lower now. I swing trade with play money.

I believe the risk is to the down side this year because we need to factor in how the market will react to a possible/probable change in the House after the elections! Assuming that happens and the Dems immediately empanel impeachment hearings, next year could be quite interesting.

Normxxx    
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The contents of any third-party letters/reports above do not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

The content of any message or post by normxxx anywhere on this site is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. Such is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should always consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Normxxx

» allancoleman - Re-consider...

In response to Re-consider... posted by Normxxx:

well , you and Taleb are certainly correct about following the markets too closely and hearing / seeing the noise . and you're also right about the market being about where it was earlier this spring .

after having such a successful last two years returns following Sy in 2005 and 2004 , i thought i'd get better returns by jumping on a summer rally . might still increase my performance this year ( 2006 ) over the last two years ( 2005 - 2004 ) , but not sure it's worth the risk and work .

was alot easier just concentrating on my real estate sales summers in Alaska that have been going very well as in past years and staying out of the market and going back in the stock market in the fall when i was in Kailua-Kona surfing every morning and just looking at the market returns after i got back to the condo to shower and eat alittle lunch and nap in the noon day heat and walk around Kailua village in the cooler afternoons and evenings after the glorious sunsets and watching my halau ( group - club ) practice their hula .

then all i had to do was pick a point to get out after i made enough money . like Warren Buffett , i usually sold too soon and was happy .

appreciate all your book recommendations and work here , especially your introducing me to Sy Harding . gives one a different way to look at the market . he still has the best and simplest explanation of MACDs i've ever read in that little book of his . looking forward to Taleb's latest work when it finally gets published .

-- posted by allancoleman