Investment

» oldtown4 - Possible Future?

In response to Possible Future? posted by Kirk:

1350 Oct 1 2006
1400 Jan 1 2007
1450 April 1 2007
1500 July 1 2007

What do we win if right? lol

-- posted by oldtown4

» summertime03 - Prediction

I don't know what Bob will predict but I believe in the Presidential strategy.
1999 and 2003 were great up years because they were right before a Presidential election year. Thus 2007 will be a great year because it is right before a Presidential election year. The Bear will return in full force sometime in 2008.
We will see lows worse than 2001.
However before then we will have wonderful new highs (2007).
BUT we are in a short rally mode and will have the usual fall swoon in Sept-Oct before having a pleasant rally as always in Dec-Jan.
I do use most of my funds to time the market, how else will I make back my $3 million before I'm too old to enjoy it? I use the Rydex 2x funds.
Good luck to all.
Summertime 03

-- posted by summertime03

» seneca194 - Possible Future?

Kirk,

Interesting...so it sounds like you are saying the same as Brinker basically..a rally to 1350 to 1450, then downside?? Perhaps you are thinking we will only get a correction from these levels rather than a return to the secular bear (which I think Brinker would say then would include a two to three year span of a greater than 20% decline from the high)??

Could you elaborate?

Thanks...

In response to Possible Future? posted by Kirk:

-- posted by seneca194

» azxcvbnm - Possible Future?

In response to Possible Future? posted by seneca194:

I think everything still depends on earnings and earnings growth. When people talk about a secular bear market, many think of a huge crash or a Japan like scenario. I believe that this secular bear market is about P/E contraction. We've already seen P/E's come down to around 16-17, reported P/E. The market will continue to go up, but not as fast as earnings, and I think that at the end of it all, we'll see P/E's come down to 14 or so and that'll be the end of the great bear market of the 2000's. We still have a few years before that happens, but I don't see a huge decline, and I think the 2002 lows will NOT be tested.

Can you imagine the S&P500 at 850 with these earnings? We're talking about a P/E of 10! Major buy time! Too many people would jump in before then. I still have powder left to fire and I know many people do also.

-- posted by azxcvbnm

» jamesj24 - Possible Future?

In response to Possible Future? posted by azxcvbnm:

Can you imagine the S&P500 at 850 with these earnings? We're talking about a P/E of 10! Major buy time! Too many people would jump in before then. I still have powder left to fire and I know many people do also.

You're point about compression of the P/E ratio is a valid one, especially considering the uptrend in interest rates.

Playing devil’s advocate, however, many high tech, high growth stocks showed multiples of around 10 during the last bear market. It is well within the realm of possibility that the broad market would return to such P/E’s if various fundamentals, particularly regarding expectations, change for the worse. Japan is a good example. Foremost of these factors is the likely possibility that a new investment generation appears who has little or no desire for stocks because of the risks that accompany them. That is the pre- and post-retirement baby boom generation who collectively believe that it is in a "secular bear" market.

The logic you use, which assumes that investors will grab up stocks at a certain level has proven many investors wrong, leaving them with great losses.

-- posted by jamesj24

» lcha - IPv6

Kirk, do you see significant investment implications in the move to IPv6?

I read the federal govn't is requiring the move for govn't offices to be done by 2008. Seems like this would be a BIG boon for Cisco(or companies that make electronics for Cisco) but I haven't heard much about this event.

-- posted by lcha

» lcha - IPv6

In response to IPv6 posted by Kirk:

I'm packing for a Vegas trip so this will be short.(Gotta make my fortune somewhere eh?)

I don't know a whole lot about the IPv6 thing but I do know this is a BIG change. It will require new hardware. Routers, switches, etc...It's not just a S/W fix. Which is why it is taking so long to implement. It has been said the change will make Y2K upgardes seem like kids stuff.

I'll do some more research when I get back.

-- posted by lcha

» Normxxx - IPv6

In response to IPv6 posted by Kirk:

"Transitioning from IPv4 to IPv6 will be expensive, although overall deployment costs are hard to estimate. Given the magnitude of the project and the lack of specific deadlines, hardware and software designers, network providers, and users are generally approaching the conversion from IPv4 to IPv6 judiciously to avoid costly missteps. From our perspective, it appears that the marketplace is working— providing for continuing support of IPv4 applications but preparing for an eventual transition to a native IPv6 network." [from COMMENTS OF MICROSOFT CORPORATION to the DoC]

"It will be necessary to study different interoperability approaches and how to ensure backward compatibility between IPv6 equipment and legacy systems - particularly where enhanced features are desired. Lockheed Martin notes that IPv6 is already backward compatible with IPv4 and that the real cost with respect to interoperability between these two protocols rests with the manufacturer's conversion of the silicon to being IPv6-enabled, and then revising the product." [from COMMENTS OF LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION to the DoC]

See also:

"Cisco Hardware
Cisco IPv6 solutions are packaged in a feature set that is supported on specific platforms and applications packages. On Cisco IOS Software platforms, Cisco Feature Navigator (http://www.cisco.com/go/fn) dynamically updates the list of supported platforms as new platform and features support are added.
IPv6 services are part of Cisco IOS Software releases, and any router that runs IPv6 must conform to the minimum memory size required by the selected Cisco IOS Software release and feature set.
As on IPv4, high-end routers and Layer 3 switching may implement assisted hardware acceleration for IPv6. Cisco devices that benefit from IPv6 hardware forwarding are indicated in Table 2.
To obtain updated information about platform support for IPv6, access Cisco.com or contact your local Cisco sales team.

Note: Not all hardware supports all features. Consult the release notes to determine which hardware platform receives features from a particular IOS release train." [from Cisco IPv6 Solutions document]

IPv6 Deployment Challenges and Risks

IPv6 (Hardware) Basics

Support IPv6 Now Or Later?

-- posted by Normxxx

» Normxxx - Pay Drops for College-Educated Workers

In response to Pay Drops for College-Educated Workers posted by Kirk:

So, now what jobs do we re-train displaced workers for? I guess we can't outsource bootblacking and garbageman, er-r-r, 'sanitation engineer.'

-- posted by Normxxx

» Bill_Duffy - Pay Drops for College-Educated Workers

.
Seems to me there is a labor surplus in just about every field that lacks a serious barrier to entry.

Back in the good old days before the internet, when college degrees were relatively scarce, just about any degree was a ticket to the middle class.

From my college-educated children, I now hear lots of stories about engineers waiting tables, journalism grads doing minimum-wage data entry, and community college AA grads living with mom.

I'm more worried about deflation than inflation. When I hear stories about aging boomers expecting to retire on the equity from their million dollar stucco boxes, I think, who in the next generation can afford to buy? The high school grads can't afford it and the under-employed college grads are drowning in student loan debt.

-- posted by Bill_Duffy