Investment

» Normxxx - Where is this market going this week? Opinions? Guesses?

In response to Where is this market going this week? Opinions? Guesses? posted by Kirk:

The "three peaks and a domed house formation" is a hugely bearish formation!

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/...

Also, you didn't read the note in your original blogger's graph which projects the Dow to 9800!

And here's Tim Wood's alternate count— which shows the high as having been made for this cycle— but not the low!

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/...

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The content of any message or post by normxxx anywhere on this site is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. Such is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should always consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Normxxx

» Jas_Jain - racist BS again

[Kirk's Editor Comment: Personal attack post deleted. Please refrain from making more of these or we’ll not allow you to post here. My decision is NOT open for debate here. If you have any further complaints, put them in writing and email them to me. Include a link to the offending post, highlight what you found offensive and what you want done about it. I will then forward it to Suite101 management so they can decide what to do. ]

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Normxxx - Where is this market going this week? Opinions? Guesses?

In response to Where is this market going this week? Opinions? Guesses? posted by Kirk:

The bears are always bearish, so I think they always predict lower in the long term.

Well, but they are right! In the long term, we'll all be six feet lower!

-- posted by Normxxx

» Singlengle - Missed by $0.00000

In response to Missed by $0.00000 posted by Kirk:

Didn't know where to ask, but was wondering about you and if that was you or a friend that was the windsurfer stranded in SF bay the other day.

Hope all is well and the wind is at your back.

-- posted by Singlengle

» lcha - Big Ben Rang Da Bell Today

In response to Big Ben Rang Da Bell Today posted by Kirk:

Great. I don't borrow money very often. And I've gotten used to the 5% MM rates again. Now BB is going to pull my punchbowl before I've even finished my first glass.

-- posted by lcha

» allancoleman - Possible Future?

In response to Possible Future? posted by Kirk:

since you asked , your predictions and plan sound good to me . and i do " time the markets " with " more than the explore part of ( my ) portfolio " . and i'm attempting to do it in with both the stock portion AND the bond portion of my portfolios .

thanks for the education share here on suite101 . lots of good stuff here for all .

-- posted by allancoleman

» runner26 - Possible Future?

In response to Possible Future? posted by Kirk:

Back from Chicago where I rode out a heat wave to return to the CA central valley to anoter historical heat wave 112-113-113-111(today's prediction). Whew!

From what I am seeing, that sounds like a HOT forcast to me. Now that I am near my target allocation leading to retirement, I will be using rebalancing between $1350 and $1450, with possibly a bit of overfudging to achieve the same objective. Same on the downside.

-- posted by runner26

» tjg911 - Possible Future?

In response to Possible Future? posted by allancoleman:

Well Kirk, as I have mentioned in the past, this is the type of thread I like.

Twice I have given my thoughts on the near term from late June/early July to the Aug. 8th FOMC meeting and then thru the late October time frame based upon what the Fed does. Some of what I expected is on going - 2nd quarter earnings are strong but the sucker rally (sucker cuz I thought the Fed's would raise rates and kill all the gains) I expected based upon that is not occurring. We go up really big just to give it all back over the next several days. Again yesterday a big day, we'll see where this goes. It is really frustrating we can't get some upward movement, the reports are strong, the economy is strong but we just go sideways. I am using the pull backs to DCA from my 401k's Stable Value fund back into mutual funds. I also have made 2 contributions to my Roth for 2006. These are buying opportunities.

I agree with the huge rally you mention but only if the fed stays put on the over night rate. If they raise rates again, I see a huge sell off, that was the sucker rally I expected 3-4 weeks ago after great earnings reports in July. Now, it seems they may halt, we'll see. The end to the ongoing rate hikes should be a huge stimulus that brings money off the side lines and into the market. Events such as Israel defending herself, Iran nukes et al, hurricane season, oil production in the world and how that effects crude prices can all skew this optimistic view of a rally should the Fed not raise rates. I don't have any idea whether we test lower or higher lows re the correction later this year. I'd expect a good rally in November/December as that time of the year traditionally is very good but who knows. Sorry I'm not specific but I view the market movements as trends rather than events that have a more defined time frame. I sorta sound like Bob hedging my words (!) but that's not it cuz I am not trying to sell a newsletter but I'm rather trying to juice my 401k. If I get that result it doesn't matter to me if it occurs next month or in the winter, if it lasts 3 weeks or 6 months. I am optimistic for the next 6-12 months for growth but the lead up to the 2008 elections (March-October) may be ugly. Like in 2004, I expect the markets to stagnate prior to 10/2008 then to rally just because the presidential election will be over and that uncertainty will be behind us. A division of power may be better, having the opposite party in the White House vs controlling congress may be a good thing. Clinton had a Republican congress and that controlled him and the economy did well. I have heard that historically that situation has been good for the stock market. I do see the S&P 500 getting up to 1350 and I'd expect it to go to 1400 perhaps 1425 before this bull market ends or has a serious correction again. I question if it would continue, it's already the 5th longest in history.

I have a dollar amount in my 401k that I am aiming for and when I get there I'll just move it all to the Stable Value fund, declare critical mass is met and then be happy. I want to roll over that money into Vanguard funds for growth and income. My 401k doesn't have all the various types of investments I want to be in for retirement that is why that dollar amount is important to hit. I can't live off the Stable Value/fixed income in retirement but having the proper amount will allow me to diversify in Vanguard while leaving enough in the 401k Stable Value to live off until I am able to tap my 401k IRA rollover at age 59 1/2.

Tom

-- posted by tjg911

» Normxxx - Possible Future?

In response to Possible Future? posted by Kirk:

See http://investment.suite101.com/discussio...

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The content of any message or post by normxxx anywhere on this site is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. Such is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should always consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Normxxx

» celtics33 - Possible Future?

In response to Possible Future? posted by Kirk:

Kirk - Good chart.

I dumb this down (easier on my brain!) and focus on the earnings * multiple. 2006 operating earnings estimates seem to range in the low-mid 80's (Bob's admitedly conservative estimate is 81, S&P is predicting 85.75). On balance earnings appear to be solid despite the well publicized misses (AMZN!).

The 'wall of worry' is compressing the multiple which makes the market very attractive IMHO even after this week's small rally, and slowing growth may temper new enthusiasm to cause multiple expansion. This market has and will likely be driven by 'wow it's cheap' rather than bullish optimism. The media loves to talk down the economy.

Bob's opinion is that the multiple should "approach 18" based on inflation/rates. Seems reasonable.

My guess for this year is 83*17 = 1411. I think an Aug fed pause (if it happens) and/or optimism before the holidays will stimulate strong moves near 1400 if it's not there already. I also think 1250 will be really strong support now and wouldn't be surprised if we don't test it again.

Bottom line - I completely agree with your 1350-1450 range. And I hope we're right because I'm fully invested

cheers.

-- posted by celtics33