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© Howard Bryan Bonham

Kirk's Market Thoughts

  1. lmanfield
  2. Beartoes
  3. Jas_Jain
  4. Normxxx
  5. Beartoes
  6. BoltonCT
  7. hickfish
  8. allancoleman
  9. Beartoes
  10. stocktiger

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61.   Jun 11, 2006 4:23 PM

» lmanfield - Intermittent ColdFusion Error

In response to Intermittent ColdFusion Error posted by Kirk:

Hi everyone,

Just a note to say that you may encounter some
technical issues with the site over the next few days.
The new design has been launched in select IP addresses
as a test, and some glitches have been occurring in
both the new and old sites as a result. If you do
encounter errors, try refreshing your page, or logging
out then back in. If the error persists, please let us
know what error message you are getting so we can pass
it on the to the tech powers that be.

Cheers,
Lisa

-- posted by lmanfield


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62.   Jun 11, 2006 6:41 PM

» Beartoes - test

SPX chart using 10 pt scale

 
1345  | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1345
1340  | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1340|
1335  | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1335|
1330  | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1330|
1325  | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1325|
1320  | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |5|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1320|
1315  | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| |X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1315|
1310  | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | |X| |X| |4| |X|O|X|O| | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | 1310|
1305  | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | 1305|
1300  | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| |O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | 1300|
1295  | | | | ||| | | | | |X| |3| |X|O| |O| |O|X| |•|O| | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | 1295|
1290  | | | | |X| | | | | |X|O|X|O|X| | | | |O|X|•| |O| | | | |X| |•| | | | | | | Med|1290|
1285  | | | | |X|O|X| | | |X|O|X|O|X| | | | |O|•| | |O| | | | |X|O| |•| | | | | | | | 1285|
1280  | | | | |X|O|X|O| | |X|O| |O|X| | | |•|•| | | |O| | |X| |X|O| | |•| | | | | | | 1280|
1275  | | |X| |X|O|X|O| | |X| | |O|X| | |•| | | | | |O| | |X|O|6|O| | | | | | | | | | 1275|
1270  |X| |X|O|X|O|X|2|X| |X| | |O| | |•| | | | | | |O|X| |X|O|X|O|X| | | | | | | | | 1270|
1265 O|C|O|X|O|1|O|X|O|X|O|X| | | | |•| | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | 1265|
1260 O|X|O|X|O|X|O| |O|X|O|X| | | |•| | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O| |O|X|O|X| | | | | | | 1260|
1255 O|X|O| |O|X| | |O| |O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | |O| |O|X| | |O| |O|X| | | | | | | 1255|
1250 O| | | |O||| | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | |O| | | | | |O|X| | | | | | | 1250|
1245  | | | | ||| | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O|X| | | | | | | 1245|
1240  | | | | ||| | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O| | | | | | | | 1240|
1235  | | | | ||| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1235|
1230  | | | | ||| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1230|
1225  | | | | ||| | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1225|
1220  | | | | ||| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1220|
1215  | | | | |||•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1215|
               0                                                                     
               6

how did that look kirk?
beartoes

-- posted by Beartoes


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63.   Jun 12, 2006 7:49 PM

» Jas_Jain - Bullish Percentage vs SPX

In response to Bullish Percentage vs SPX posted by Kirk:

--

"The bottom is probably being made by those who bought at 2004 and 2005 tech peaks bailing now before they go into the red again…. "

Best proof that we are in a Secular Bear Market. Looks like the Cyclical Bull ended in May.

Forget about October, lot of money will be lost before that bu all those who are adding to their positions at the worst time for the economy. What part of "as good as it gets," for the economy, don't you get, Kirk?

Housing, economy, Scams, all are headed for a disastrous year, or two.

The Broken Clock,

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain


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64.   Jun 14, 2006 11:53 AM

» Normxxx - When the "elephants dance" ...



Forget "normal" When the "elephants dance" ... —especially when they are in harmony (very rare!)

For more on When the "elephants dance" ..., see
http://investment.suite101.com/discussio...

Don't expect more than a robust rebound. This is likely to be a bad year, at least going into October.


______________


The contents of any third-party letters/reports above do not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

The content of any message or post by normxxx anywhere on this site is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. Such is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should always consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Normxxx


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65.   Jun 14, 2006 3:11 PM

» Beartoes - Strippers?

Kirk,

What is this C%$# about strippers?? That belongs on a finance site? I was just wondering...

-- posted by Beartoes


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66.   Jun 14, 2006 3:41 PM

» BoltonCT - Amazing how the human mind selects information.

All the bears select the worst news and the bulls select the best news. Then the herd get moving up the canyon ridge and eventually over a cliff.

After the cliff the bears get clobbered if they don't recognize the market has bottomed for the next cycle up.

-- posted by BoltonCT


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67.   Jun 15, 2006 10:24 AM

» hickfish - My Sell High and Repurchase Low Worked Again

In response to My Sell High and Repurchase Low Worked Again posted by Kirk:

This is an unsolicited reply to Kirk's message, though I am a suscriber.

I began subscribing to Kirk's newsletter sometime between Brinker's QQQ debacle and the October 2002 market low. This was shortly after I found this site while searching the web for commentary relative to Brinker's performance. I have been a regular lurker here since then as well.

I was very skeptical of a lot things after the QQQs. This includes Kirk's stock purchases when the market was in such a nose dive. However, I learned Kirk's lessen while watching his stocks skyrocket and him taking profits along the way. When I finally did have the gumption to start buying his receommendations there has been no looking back.

His method is quite simple, yet can be somewhat gut wrenching from time to time. Even if you don't like his stock selections (though you should) his method works for any long term equity position.

Kirk, hopefully you did gain another suscriber. For anyone considering it, please do it. I happen to be younger and quite a bit more aggressive, hence my year to date gains are astounding, all based on learning from him. This is even after the recent skull caving since May. Knock on wood, of course.

Thanks Kirk!

-- posted by hickfish


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68.   Jun 27, 2006 11:40 AM

» allancoleman - Inflation Report from Maui

In response to Inflation Report from Maui posted by Kirk:

i can back up Kirk's report from Maui . when i was on the Big Island last month ( May ) , most establishments had ' for hire ' signs permanently displayed in their windows . and the wages in Hawaii are higher than Federal minumum wage for the most part . plus usually all Hawaiian employers are required to provide health care as a part of their employment . the hotels decided to raise their rates because they were fully booked .

and i just checked the fares for my return flight in October and the fares are up quite a bit . paradise isn't cheap , but it's still paradise . happy

-- posted by allancoleman


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69.   Jun 27, 2006 2:33 PM

» Beartoes - Bullish Percent Nasdaq says bottom is in....

In response to Bullish Percent Nasdaq says bottom is in.... posted by Kirk:

Hey Kirk,
I was looking at this post and then went over to the charts to take a look. This is just another opinion, and we will just have to wait and see what happens. You may be right that the bottom has been put in since it did get pretty washed out at 28. But anyway here goes.
The BP is a great indicator and one that I use frequently. For those who don't know, what it is, one stock, one vote. So once a stock gives, say a PnF buy that is its vote. It could have 10 more buys, but it has already voted. The only time it gets to vote again is when it gives a sell signal, and that would be its vote. For example...you have 100 stocks and 50 of them are on PnF buy signals, you would divide the 50/100 and then multiply by 100 to get a % and you have 50%. This is then plotted on the chart.
So how does this compare to the DOW, NASDAQ or S&P. It doesn't compare. All of these indexes are either CAP weighted or PRICE weithted...In the DOW the higher priced stocks have more votes and the other 2 the stocks with the largest CAPITALIZATION weight have more votes. So in these indexes an handful of stocks can move the indexes a lot.
So in the charts below, I see the NDX making new highs ever since say OCT (A) of 2002. Beautiful pattern. Followed that trend line all the way up. Higher highs and higher lows.
What I see when I look at the BPNDX I see this making lower highs since June (6) of 2003. This meaning that fewer and fewer stocks were going on buy signals and the index was moving to new highs. Not to good of a thing.
The BPNDX did move below 30 in O's, which indicates a some what of a "washed out" condition. That could be the bottom.
We did see the reversal back into X's in June (6) of 2006. Will it keep moving higher. Will see... We really need to hold that trend line that we are flirting with right now. It needs to hold that 1500 level on the 25 pt chart. 1475 would not be a good thing.
We may have to retest that 30 level again on the BPNDX one more time buy we shall see.
The NDX is in beginning stages of what is called a shakeout pattern. If it holds and does not move lower at 1525 the 3 box reversal to 1600 would indicate a buy signal. That would start the shakeout pattern. The reversal to me is what we need to go long here.
Here are the charts...
First the 25 pt NDX chart and second the BPNDX chart. 2 pts per box.

 1850  | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1850
1825  | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1825|
1800  | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1800|
1775  | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | TOp|1775|
1750  | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | |X| |X| | | | | | | | 1750|
1725  | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | |1|O|4|O| | | | | | | 1725|
1700  | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | |X|O|X|O| | | | | | | 1700|
1675  | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | |X|O|X|5| | | | | | | 1675|
1650  | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | |X|2| |O| | | | | | | 1650|
1625  | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | |X|||8| |X| | |O| | | | | Med|1625|
1600  | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | |C|O|X|O|B| | |O| | | | | | | 1600|
1575  | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | |X|O|7|O|X| | |O| | | | | | | 1575|
1550  | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | |X|1|X|A|X| | |6| | | | | | | 1550|
1525  | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | |X|O|X|O||| | |O| | | | | | | 1525|
1500  | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X| |X| |B|O|X| ||| | |•| | | | | | | 1500|
1475  | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | |1|O|X|O|6|O|X|3|5| ||| |•| | | | | | BOt|1475|
1450  | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |B| |C| |X|3|4|O|X|O|A|4|X| |||•| | | | | | | | | 1450|
1425  | | | | | | | ||| | | | | |X| |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|7|X|O|X| |•| | | | | | | | | | 1425|
1400  | | | | | | | ||| | | |X| |A|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|5|X|O|9|O| |•||| | | | | | | | | | 1400|
1375  | | | | | | | ||| | | |X|O|X|O|X|O| |O|||O| |O| |O|X|||•| ||| | | | | | | | | | 1375|
1350  | | | | | | | ||| | | |9|O|X|O| | | | ||| | | | |8|X|•| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1350|
1325  | | | | | | | ||| | | |X|O| | | | | | ||| | | | |O|•||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1325|
1300  | | | | | | | ||| |X| |X| | | | | | | ||| | | |•|•| ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1300|
1275  | | | | | | | ||| |7|O|X| | | | | | | ||| | |•| | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1275|
1250  | | | | | | | ||| |X|O|X| | | | | | | ||| |•| | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1250|
1225 •| | | | | | | ||| |6|8| | | | | | | | |||•| | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1225|
1200  |•| | | | | | ||| |X| | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1200|
1175  | |•| | | | | ||| |X| | | | | | | | |•||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1175|
1150  | | |•| | |C| ||| |5| | | | | | | |•| ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1150|
1125  | | | |•| |X|O||| |X| | | | | | |•| | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1125|
1100  | | | | |•|X|O|X| |4| | | | | |•| | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1100|
1075  | | | | | |X|O|1|O|X| | | | |•| | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1075|
1050 X| | | |X| |X|O|X|O|X| | | |•| | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1050|
1025 X|O| | |B|O|X|O|X|O|3| | |•| | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1025|
1000 X|O| | |X|O|X|O|||O|X| |•| | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1000|
975  X|O|X| |X|O| | |||O|X|•| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 975| 
950  X|O|X|O|X| | | |||2|•| | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 950| 
925  X|9|X|O|X| | | |||•| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 925| 
900  X|O| |O|X| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 900| 
875   | | |O|X| | |•||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 875| 
850   | | |O|X| |•| ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 850| 
825   | | |A|X|•| | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 825| 
800   | | |O|•| | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 800| 
775   | | |•| | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 775| 
750   | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 750| 
725   | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 725| 
700   | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 700| 
675   | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 675| 
                     0                       0             0     0                   
                     3                       4             5     6                        
                                                                                          
98  | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | 98
96  | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | 96| 
94  | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | 94| 
92  | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | 92| 
90  | | | | | ||| |X| | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | 90| 
88  | | | | | ||| |X|O| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | 88| 
86  | | | | | ||| |X|O| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | 86| 
84  | | | | | ||| |6|O| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | 84| 
82  | | | |C| ||| |X|O| | |X| | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | 82| 
80  | | | |X|O||| |X|O|X| |X|O|X| | | |X| | | | | |X||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | 80| 
78  | | | |X|O||| |X|O|X|O|9|O|X|O| | |X|O| | | | |C|O| | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | 78| 
76  | | | |X|O||| |X|O|X|O|X|A|X|O| | |X|O| | | | |X|O| | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | 76| 
74  | | | |X|O||| |X|7| |8|X|O| |B|C| |X|O| | | | |X|1| | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | 74| 
72  | | | |X|O||| |X| | |O|X| | |O|X|O|1|2| | | | |X|O| | |X| | | | | | | | | | | | | 72| 
70  | | | |X|O||| |5| | |O|X| | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | |X|O| | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | 70| 
68  | | | |X|O||| |X| | |O|X| | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | |X|O| | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | 68| 
66  | | | |X|O|1| |X| | |O| | | |O| |O|||O| | | | |X|O| | |1|O|X| | | | | | | | | | | 66| 
64  | | | |X|O|X|O|X| | | | | | | | | |||O| | | | |X|O| | |X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | 64| 
62  | | | |X|O|X|O|X| | | | | | | | | |||O| | | | |X|2|X| |C|O|X|O|3| | | | | | | | | 62| 
60  | |X| |X|O|||O|X| | | | | | | | | |||3| | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O| |2|X|O| | | | | | | | 60| 
58  | |X|O|X| |||O|X| | | | | | | | | |||O| | | | |X|3|7|O|X| | |O|X|O| | | | | | | | 58| 
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               0                       0             0     0                            
               3                       4             5     6

Something to think about..
beartoes

-- posted by Beartoes


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70.   Jun 30, 2006 7:23 PM

» stocktiger - racist BS again

Kirk and other forum moderators!

This is crossing the line into stupid Racisim just like JJ did!!!!!!!! Is this person JJ under a different name? Are you going to allow this racisim to continue?

I and I'm sure several others find this disgusting, appalling, and downright ignorant. This is an investment forum not a forum for white supremicists or racist bigotry.

Please do something about this ASAP!!!!!

This Rommel person is crossing the line bigtime.
Either do something about it or its time for the rest of us to take off the kid gloves.

-- posted by stocktiger


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