Investment

» noggin - DOW Bull Flag?

In response to DOW Bull Flag? posted by Kirk:

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Hello Kirk, I sold some yesterday also - I sold in the morning because the Sox was acting poor. I shut the computer down and walked away for a few hours then I saw that the Sox had really sold off(about 3%) so I sold some more.

Don Wolenchuk had some interesting things to say starting here, but going on for many posts:

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_...

I posted some of the juicy stuff on the D.W. thread here - but it didn't show on the discussions update area.

-- posted by noggin

» noggin - DJIA Changes

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Kirk, I thought you might find this useful - I believe you were refering to it a while back:

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2006/0...

from:

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_...

-- posted by noggin

» noggin - DJIA Changes

In response to DJIA Changes posted by noggin:

Never mind

Sorry !!

I misread the chart.

-- posted by noggin

» SteveT - Long Live Cable, Phone

Kirk, any comments?

TECHNOLOGY TRADER
By BILL ALPERT

OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS, shares of cable and telephone companies have sagged amid fears that subscribers will get television shows and movies directly off the Internet, or from rival technologies such as WiMAX and broadband-over-power line. In the past year, for example, the stock of Comcast (ticker: CMCSA) has dropped to 26.56 from 34.50, while that of Verizon Communications (VZ) has remained flat at around 35. Comcast shares trade for just six times next year's cash flow per share, according to the estimate of Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett.

But fears about cable and phone disintermediation are looking less warranted lately. Congress seems unenthusiastic about requiring cable and phone companies to offer the same service for all content -- a proposal generally known as "net neutrality." The capacity to carry high-definition TV programming looks like it will be a stretch for even the upgraded networks of such companies.

Recently, Moffett joined several other Wall Street apparatchiks in warning the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation that net-neutrality proposals would hurt cable and phone companies and consumers. Web businesses such as Google (GOOG) have lobbied in favor of those proposals, to prevent carriers like AT&T (T) from charging Web firms a premium for "fast lane" service that would speed traffic such as TV programming and multiplayer games. As of now, Google Video and Apple's iTunes store get free rides when consumers download TV shows.

In his testimony and a series of research reports, Moffett argued that cable and phone operators will need expensive upgrades to carry video traffic. If they can't recoup some of that investment from content owners -- say, CBS (CBS) or Yahoo (YHOO) -- consumers will have to cover the costs. Moffett says one high-def movie is comparable in bulk to 2,300 iTunes songs and would take all day to download over today's DSL links.

The large telcos -- Verizon and AT&T -- are in the midst of well-publicized programs to upgrade their loops with optical fiber. The upgraded links would just about have the capacity to carry streaming video, which requires 3 million to 5 million bits per second for standard television and 9 million to 20 million for high-def. Yet, the current upgrade to fiber will reach only about 40% of telco customers in its first decade. After the March 14 Senate committee hearing, at least a few of the senators sounded like they appreciate the challenge of raising the capital needed to bring Internet TV to everyone.

Nascent technologies like WiMAX and powerline broadband don't look like they'll have the capacity to offer streaming video to dense populations, either. So the duopoly of cable and phone probably will remain unchallenged for the foreseeable future.

Moffett has been bullish and bruised for a long time on Comcast, but things could yet turn out right for the cable and phone companies.

URL for this article:
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB1143...

-- posted by SteveT

» axolotl - CNBC SQUAWKBOX CONTEST - WIN AN EXPENSIVE CAR

You might be interested, Kirk. Too time consuming for me - I think it is free - just pick some short term big winners.

-- posted by axolotl

» Jas_Jain - Why Outsource Research to India?

In response to Why Outsource Research to India? posted by Kirk:

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If I were running Scams, I will outsource to India too.

Scams On the Cheap! An idea whose time is Here And Now. Who knows how long this can be exploited.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» lcha - What a GREAT Quarter!

In response to What a GREAT Quarter! posted by Kirk:

I notice on Bigcharts, the Oil and Gas sector is up 140% since 12/31/1998. You even beat the oil barron's.

-- posted by lcha

» allancoleman - What a GREAT Quarter!

In response to What a GREAT Quarter! posted by Kirk:

congradulations of your 8.0% ytd performance Kirk . my ytd performance isn't quite so good at 7.18% . this was fueled mostly by my 41.9% increase in my real estate evaluation over last year . and i don't expect to see that in future years .

my present asset allocation is 2.289% in the stock market , all of it in the Fidelity Magellan fund . the rest of my asset breakdown is as follows :

51.24% in deferred accounts ( 401k & IRAs )
22.14% in Roth accounts - includes my Magellan fund
22.10% in real estate
4.50% in a bucket number one for living expenses .

-- posted by allancoleman

» allancoleman - re: What a GREAT Quarter!

In response to re: What a GREAT Quarter! posted by Kirk:

it may not ' normal ' in the crowd you travel with that pretty much only has equity in their own home or possibile a second vacation home to count real estate in your personal return numbers . but for me since my personally owned real estate accounts for almost a quarter of my Total portfolio and is owned totally with NO debt . and has funded all of my living expenses since i retired in 2000 , AND funded ALL of my Roth conversions thus far . it would be irresponsibile of me to not count it . i'm still on a ' liquidation ' process selling all of my real estate while i continue pulling ' doubles ' in my deferred and taxfree accounts .

my deferred and Roth money , except for my Magellan fund , is pretty much in fixed income in the form of money markets and a stable value fund . so my return there is small . i realize that counting real estate in one's performance numbers , especially when i'm on a permanent strategy of selling most of it , won't last forever . but my performance ytd shows there is more than one way to make money . and my real estate money spends just as well as your stock market money . with a lot less risk too i might add .

later when my real estate portfolio is depleted and i turn back to my deferred and taxfree portfolios for future living expenses , my critical mass will have pulled another double or two . i'm just showing there is more than one way to make money . and my Total portfolio that includes my real estate also always includes my total living expenses todate so i consider it very accurate .

-- posted by allancoleman

» allancoleman - Performance measurement

thank you , by the way , Kirk , for calling me an ' advocate for market timing here ' in your post . market timing has not only to do with the stock market , but also the fixed income or bond market and also the real estate market .

i began selling my personally owned real estate before i retired in 2000 when i began to sense a shift to buyers showing ' no fear ' . since that time i've sold two condos , three houses , and four individual pieces of property / building lots . and i hope to continue that process going forward until most of my real estate is depleted . and your statement in your post that , " noise level and commission and closing fees and costs swamp out anything meaningful " shows a not altogether full understanding of the real estate market . . all but ONE of my sales was ' for sale by owner ' at very small advertising expenses and shared closing costs with the buyer and their lender . the one sale that was through a broker was a personal friend of mine and i wanted to give him the opportunity to earn a commission from me if he earned it . and although all the future real estate sales will be offered by me , i definitely think that realtors earn their money and wouldn't mind working with another one in the future . realizing , of course , that they and their buyer have to pretty much bring me full asking price and handle all the details of the deal to have them handle any sale for me .

just as i sensed in mid - 1999 that there was a coming shift in the stock market that meant that i got out prior to bob brinker's sell signal , i also sense a coming shift from this cyclical bull market to the second leg down in this secular bear market . and i fully realize i may be as early on this call as i was on that prior call . i pretty much sold out of the stock market toward the end of last december realizing i wasn't following bob to his projected high of the 1350's of the S & P 500 . but i also felt there is the beginning of another market timing call in fixed income setting up toward the end of this year or the beginning of next year .

as for my " honest performance in my deferred accounts and Roths " , i can only offer you my results from last year where in my ' invested ' portfolio , NOT counting real estate and living expenses , my performance was 10.57% . lead by my only timing vehicle , my 401(k) , of 13.4% . and this was being OUT of the stock markert for over half of last year . which of course lessens my risk by quite a bit . since 1991 i have pulled a double every six to seven years and am still on track to continue that performance going forward .

my performance last year in my Total portfolio , counting real estate and living expenses , was 9.259% . i realize that last year was my best year yet since retiring in 2000 and although i don't expect to do that well this year ; i'm certainly starting out of the gate with a bang this first quarter . keeping in mind we are still in the early innings of this year's game . i still have three more quarters left this year to use the services of Norm3x , your ' technical analysis ' forum members , and yourself and others here to make this year my best yet . and i thank you for that .

-- posted by allancoleman