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InvestmentInflation/deflation
« Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Next » » Normxxx - A Crisis to Shatter the World A Crisis to Shatter the World http://normxxxruminates.blogspot.com/200... -- posted by Normxxx » Normxxx - U.S. Inflation …. Or Deflation? U.S. Inflation .... Or Deflation? http://normxxxruminates.blogspot.com/200... -- posted by Normxxx » Normxxx - Dollar Collapse? The Dollar's Decline: From Symbol Of Hegemony To Shunned Currency Saudi Minister Warns Of Dollar Collapse http://normxxxruminates.blogspot.com/200... -- posted by Normxxx » octavian2 - Guru Foresees Falling Inflation In response to Guru Foresees Falling Inflation posted by SteveT:
-- posted by octavian2 » Jas_Jain - Inflation/Deflation + Rise of Intellectual Dishonesty In America December 03, 2008 Rise of Intellectual Dishonesty In America The following are comment and reply from a forum: Original Comment: "US 30 YEAR YIELD -- Very little is written about deflation today, most are concerned about inflation, when was inflation a leading indicator? Prechter predictions about deflation are so ridiculed today you have to ask yourself will he be finally right, and most will not believe him. So ask yourself what is the long end of the bond market not worried about inflation, (see attached long term bond market) is it not the most sensitive to inflation, what is it telling us? The long term trend from 1982 is intact with interest rates probably bottoming in the 2010-2016 time frames. 2016 would be the perfect fit since there have been three other long term fall in interest rates in the US since 1800 have they have averaged about thirty five years. The bond market has it right for this reason; it is debt that is the greatest threat to the global financial system, not inflation, not commodities, not peak oil because once debt deflation overwhelms the system all other problems will take a long needed breather." Reply: "Completely concur. What amazes me is how many analysts expect eps growth of 8-9% next year, even fin'ls. Once again, many here in the US are intellectually dishonest." Not only I agree with the original comment, from an e-friend, but no one has more consistently and clearly been on this message than yours truly. As to the reply, dishonesty - a combination of deception, fraud and manipulation - has been on the rise in America, especially over the past 13 years of the twin bubbles, with the power of the Propaganda Machine. The reason is very simple - It pays big! It also helps that Americans are bred to be dopes so that they will support the gains from dishonesty in the name of free markets, or free speech, and such. Their justifications are caveat emptor and no one is putting guns to the heads of the victims of the dishonest practices. Yeah, a good way to create a dog-eats-dog society. Let us take a very simple example. Goldchain Silverknife, the Wall Street firm that employs the highest paid Americans and the American Establishment, lowered it price on Freddie Mac from $71 to $24 last week when the Scam was already trading below $30. Today, it raised the price from $24 to $27 after the Scam was trading above $35. The person who did that, I am sure, gets paid more a million dollars a year. There is no value to these price targets other than propaganda and allow traders within the firm to profit from them from time to time. The sole reason for my long-term bearishness on America is American People, who are bred to be dopes, and their leaders, who are dishonest more than at any time in American history. I get daily confirmations of my observations about Americans and their leaders. It Is the Morality, Stupid! (Serious lack of which will take America down). Jas -- posted by Jas_Jain » Jas_Jain - Money Supply and Inflation ---- December 19,2007 Money Supply and Inflation I watched part of the Q&A of ECB President Trichet by EU parliament members. It seems that there was an ECB study out that concluded that M3 says nothing about the inflation rate or inflation pressures, but it says more about asset prices and bubbles. Only indirectly does it impact inflation when people spend the "wealth effect" from the asset prices. Inflationists were having a field day, or a field year, by claiming that the "reconstructed" discontinued M3 in the US was growing at double-digit rate and hence the real inflation was double-digit, or much higher than reported. M3 was useless, is useless, and I am glad some of our taxpayer money is being saved by junking it. M1 and M2 have whatever relevant information can be gleaned from the money supply numbers. As it turns out, long-term, of all the M's M1 has the highest correlation with the CPI. Guess what is the growth rate in M1? It IS where it was in September of 2004 (no misprint here). So, get ready for falling inflation once the recession is in full force (inflation rate peaks in the first few months of a recession). Once again, I want to emphasize that money supply is an effect and not the cause. Debt, growth or decline, is the cause and when household debt growth slows to below 5% annual rate, led by mortgage debt, we have the recession (the Q4 data wouldn't come out until March 2008) and I believe that we are there. Jas -- posted by Jas_Jain » Jas_Jain - Who Is Afraid Of Inflation? -- February 20, 2008 Who Is Afraid Of Inflation? Not the long-term US Treasury market! Bruce: "Did the LW Downwave resolve in '02-'06 with the bottoming of trend CPI?" NO. "Has the LW Upwave begun with trend CPI set to exceed 4.4% over the next 20 yrs. or more?" NO. "Or, is CPI about to decelerate with global recession below the 3.26% and back to the 1% area or lower?" By galley, Bruce, you got it! PEOPLE GET MISLED BY VARIOUS LAGS IN THE ECONOMY - INFLATION IS A BIG-TIME LAGGING INDICATOR. (Of course, Employment is the laggiest of the lagging indicators). Propagandists have a field day with the public not able to understand the lags. Let me repeat a historical fact: Inflation, as measured by YoY change in CPI, often peaks several months into a recession and then it falls precipitously. For all you commodity bulls, 70%+ of CPI is labor based and most of the service economy cost is labor cost. Businesses are not able to pass on most of the commodities price increases due to slackening demand. Inflation rate will go below zero with such speed that banksters wouldn't be able to do anything to stop it. What would be needed are job losses and they are coming. Jas -- posted by Jas_Jain » Normxxx - INflation AND DEflation!?! In response to RE: Treasury Bond Massacre... posted by permabear:
It's not money per se that's contracting; it's the credit that we are using in lieue of money and which is not measured by anyone, to my knowledge. Something on the order of half a $QUADrillion worth of derivatives are currently imploding! Money supply is actually increasing by leaps and bounds; the Fed and ECB have added well over $600 TRillion to the market so far- a drop in the bucket! BUT CONTRARY TO WHAT OTHER PUNDITS ELSEWHERE ON THIS BOARD MAY PREDICT, THIS WILL BE LIKE NO OTHER DEFLATION OR INFLATION IN HISTORY! Among other things, we have never had a major deflation when the CBs have opened up the spigots wide!! That's why some pundits (elsewhere) are predicting a 'hyperinflation!' They are failing to see the implosion/contraction in the derivatives market!?! (The CP market alone has all but closed down to 'rollovers' or 'new' money.) We are actually in virgin territory!?! One possibility I have raised is that we will see waves of inflation and deflation (in the broad economy), or maybe inflation in goods prices and deflation in credit, as we are currently experiencing! -- posted by Normxxx « Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Next » Please follow the guidelines set forth in the Suite101 Posting Etiquette when adding to the discussion. |
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