Investment

» GROUNDZERO - stocktiger...

In response to doctorj2... posted by stocktiger:

I buy March futures contracts of the U.S. Dollar...

GZ http://xrl.us/SpiralProfits
DISCLAIMER: My comments, replies, and opinions are general in nature, they are not meant or intended as specific investment advice to anyone, and certainly do not represent the opinion of anyone but myself. Individuals should consult with their professional advisors for specific investment advice. The spiral model is strictly experimental in nature and should not be used for trading purposes except by those individuals who have a fluent working knowledge of its abilities, mechanisms, and limitations.

-- posted by GROUNDZERO

» permabear - U.S. Dollar Rally Starting...

In response to U.S. Dollar Rally Starting... posted by GROUNDZERO:

You folks are all the short term traders. I don't even try to predict the short term. But in order for your prediction to be right on a strengthening U.S. dollar, we would need to see more strength short term in the U.S. economy and for the trade gaps to narrow. The only two reports that have shown strength in the U.S. economy recently have been the employment report and ISM services report. Housing is on the decline. Manufacturing is on the decline. Consumer confidence is on the decline. We'll see how retail spending is this week. So basically what I'm saying is that the experts are bearish on the dollar for a reason. The U.S. economy is weakening. Europe and Asian economies are trending stronger. Interest rates are projecting to go down in the U.S. and up in Europe and Japan. The data favors a lower U.S. dollar. What I will give you is that (short term) things often go against predictions. Long term I'm very confident the U.S. dollar is going lower.

-- posted by permabear

» US55 - U.S. Dollar Rally Starting...

In response to U.S. Dollar Rally Starting... posted by permabear:

What you say fundamentally is true, but I personally expect a violent counter
move. The currency market is also geopolitical and when an exit strategy
is announced for Iraq, ther may be a
quick celebration for the dollar haters
cashing in on long term shorts.

-- posted by US55

» hickfish - U.S. Dollar Rally Starting...

In response to U.S. Dollar Rally Starting... posted by GROUNDZERO:

What would a bull rally on the US dollar do to International stocks? I do understand this is a very general question, any insight will be greatly appreciated.

-- posted by hickfish

» US55 - U.S. Dollar Rally Starting...

In response to U.S. Dollar Rally Starting... posted by hickfish:

I believe that international stocks held as ADR's in the US would decline.

-- posted by US55

» GROUNDZERO - permabear, U.S. Dollar Rally Starting...

In response to U.S. Dollar Rally Starting... posted by permabear:

Respectfully, you may be 100% right about your assessment, but I was speaking strictly on a technical basis, the U.S. Dollar chart pattern has given an outside key reversal after a significant decline in prices... this typically signals a reversal in market trend... so, we'll see... I also realize that the markets seem to look ahead, so perhaps this chart is telling us something... all I know is that I took a long position in the U.S. Dollar and also a short position in the March Euro Currency last night on the Globex...

Here's the U.S. Dollar chart:

http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?sy...

Here's the Euro Currency chart:

http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?sy...

Also, FWIW, the spiral has issued a buy signal on the weekly chart for the U.S. Dollar... I could easily be wrong, but I believe it's a low risk trade...

GZ http://xrl.us/SpiralProfits
DISCLAIMER: My comments, replies, and opinions are general in nature, they are not meant or intended as specific investment advice to anyone, and certainly do not represent the opinion of anyone but myself. Individuals should consult with their professional advisors for specific investment advice. The spiral model is strictly experimental in nature and should not be used for trading purposes except by those individuals who have a fluent working knowledge of its abilities, mechanisms, and limitations.

-- posted by GROUNDZERO

» US55 - permabear, U.S. Dollar Rally Starting...

In response to permabear, U.S. Dollar Rally Starting... posted by GROUNDZERO:

Speaking on CNBC, currency commentary suggested bonus being paid traders for being short the dollar which supports my theory. This not could but will create a
sharp reversal to the upside.

-- posted by US55

» permabear - permabear, U.S. Dollar Rally Starting...

In response to permabear, U.S. Dollar Rally Starting... posted by GROUNDZERO:

http://www.chartsrus.com/chart.php?image...

I don't doubt your charts at all. The dollar is at key supports in the 82 to 83 range. The long term bottom of the dollar index is just below 80. Every time the dollar index has approached these levels in the past, it has bounced. So you've got history on your side. As a permabear I believe the economy and stock market are headed lower; I just don't know when. If the economy goes into recession in '07 as some predict, it will be difficult for the powers that be to keep the dollar from coming down further with the huge trade deficits and debt in the system. 80 is a key level. If you look at the very long term chart above, you notice how strong and important that 80 level is. If it breaks, all heck could break loose in the international economy.

-- posted by permabear

» keerti - permabear, U.S. Dollar Rally Starting...

In response to permabear, U.S. Dollar Rally Starting... posted by GROUNDZERO:

How do you place the spiral? Thanks.

-- posted by keerti

» GROUNDZERO - permabear, out of the Dollar trade...

In response to permabear, U.S. Dollar Rally Starting... posted by permabear:

Boy, was I ever wrong!!! This was only an experimental trade, but the market ran to the max I was willing to risk on this trade, so I'm now out of the currency trade just about as quickly as I got into it... oh, well... no big deal... besides, I don't want to argue with Greenspan, who said today that the Dollar will move lower for the next few years... what a statement coming from him... egads!!!

GZ http://xrl.us/SpiralProfits
DISCLAIMER: My comments, replies, and opinions are general in nature, they are not meant or intended as specific investment advice to anyone, and certainly do not represent the opinion of anyone but myself. Individuals should consult with their professional advisors for specific investment advice. The spiral model is strictly experimental in nature and should not be used for trading purposes except by those individuals who have a fluent working knowledge of its abilities, mechanisms, and limitations.

-- posted by GROUNDZERO