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» Normxxx - Waiting for a confirmed Hindenberg Omen

Waiting for a confirmed Hindenberg Omen

I have given up on the Hindenberg. Over the last couple of years, we have had many Hindenbergs with no crashes. I believe this 'Omen' has had it; remember, it really signals abnormally high volatility, but with prices this high overall (compared to when it was concocted) and the high volatility of the markets since the uptick rule was abolished, I doubt it has much significance anymore.

While the world bubble has burst there is unprecedented FED cash everywhere which is igniting inflation and that will offset apparent losses but not inflation adjusted losses.

However; the huge runup in liquidity was mainly fueled by the derivative/debt IOU explosion (at about 10x fiat 'money') being used in lieu of money. But derivatives are now contracting way faster than the world CBs are adding fiat money! Still, I expect inflation is selected areas- say, energy, food and other commodities, and raw materials. Continuing (relative) DEflation in labor (but NOT services, e.g., medical costs, etc.), manufactured goods, etc.

-- posted by Normxxx