Investment

» BoltonCT - Dilution

If you have something bad, dilute it so it becomes good.

Since it is May Day most financial markets are closed in Europe.

Asian markets are mixed with china up and India and Japan down.

American market futures are mixed at the moment with the DJI down 49 and the NASDAQ and S&P up 4 and 3 points respectively.

With the FED setting rates at 2% now and real inflation over 7% but quoted at about 4% the FED has now put us deeper than the hole the Japanese have been in for 18 years. We are in a hole of somewhere between -2% to more than -5% real interest rates. That is one great incentive for going deeper in debt and one cushy bed for every incompetent banker in the world. Now the elderly cannot get a living rate on the bonds they own. We are robbing the elderly with inflation and low rates. Some people may remember the 60 Minutes program in the 1970s that showed that some of the elderly were buying dog food and it wasn't for pets. Dilute the dog food in with the spinach and it is real gooood.

The incentive to invest has now been destroyed by the FED. Gambling and get rich quick scams are becoming a major problem. Dillution of the dollar is real goooood for gaming and scams.

The incentive for politically correct sub-prime scams is greater than it has ever been before. By being politically correct, for instance being touted as helping the poor, taxpayers can be fleeced for a good cause. They are giving the indigent million dollar homes. That is right... now they want the cap on federally backed mortgages raised to cover more than half a million-dollar mortgages. Redistributing wealth to the rich is real gooood for those advocating this.

But the next really big politically correct scam will be in saving the planet from global warming. Billions will be lost to corporations that essentially do CO2 dances. Remember all those companies that dug out old oil tanks and charged an arm and a leg to have the oil contaminated soil incinerated? Well it was not incinerated, it went into the dump and the oil supposedly evaporated. Remember all the other asbestos products and lead products that were removed because they were over the contamination standards? They are in you local landfill too. They just mixed them in with other waste so they are below the "dangerous" levels. Just dilute it and it is real goooood. It is part of the shell game the environmental profiteers started decades ago of cleaning one contaminated site while creating another in your neighborhood. Dilution is real goooood.

Until Fed rates get above 4% to 7% we will be stuck like the Japanese in an economy where doing nothing useful is rewarded because you can leverage it with other people's money. Dilution of the dollar is real gooood for the people advocating it.

-- posted by BoltonCT

» BoltonCT - WS can fool some of the people all of the time.

WS can fool some of the people all of the time.

Oil prices bounced back above $113 a barrel in volatile trading as short sellers panic again. The same can be expected soon for gold and other commodities. Speculators are all betting against the effects of inflation and they are destined to lose their shirts. The wages of inflation will be bankruptcy of the currency and ruin for those shorting commodities.

What has saved us so far has been world linkage of other currencies to the dollar. That allows us to export our inflation and thus maintain relative stability. But Europe has become independent and Japan is becoming independent and as soon as China, S. Korea, and India are independent of the dollar, the dollar will become literally worthless. It will plummet and gold, energy, food, all other commodities and solid currencies will sky rocket relative to the dollar. Those people shorting commodities will panic before they go bankrupt.

Most of you know why the dollar will become worthless but for those of you who have never heard the reason, here it is. When the world went off the gold standard they gradually went on a dollar standard. It was much more convenient to hold reserves in dollars. In addition America used to have at least one political party that was fiscally responsible. So for many years nations learned that when they bet against the USA that they lost because we had financial people with good intellect and sound policies. They found their nations did well keeping the dollar as their reserves rather than gold because the dollar appreciated more than gold and the little bit of monetary expansion kept other national economies expanding without the need for inflation. No one bet successfully against what became known as American ingenuity. But that has all changed now.

Now we have two Banana Republic political parties who are making the USA into a financial banana republic. Our financiers up until now successfully pretended they were so sophisticated that they no longer needed to clearly explain what they were doing. But now they are becoming recognized as world class financial morons. They are emperors with no clothes who don't even have the intelligence to be able to explain or understand the value of what they are doing with their financial derivatives. Why use a banana currency when Gold and the EURO are now so much better for reserves. So as soon as nations start to get rid of their dollar reserves the dollar will plummet because all those dollars that are locked up in bank vaults will flood the market. Gold and commodities will go right through the roof in terms of dollars but will remain stable in terms of EUROs. All these years since 1970 nations have accumulated dollars. With our FEDs policy of subsidizing the Wall Street morons and con men we are bankrupting our economy and undermining confidence in what used to be American ingenuity.

American market futures are up now based on this absurd report. According to the Labor Department, there was a net loss of 20,000 jobs in April which is lower than forecast by Briefing.com. As a result, the unemployment rate dropped to 5% from 5.1% in the Labor Department March report. Now does that make sense to you? We had a net loss of 20,000 jobs in April and the percentage unemployed went down. They did not say that 20,000 people lost their jobs and 40,000 people got new jobs. They are saying 20,000 people net lost jobs but we increased our employment from 94.9% to 95%. That is quite absurd!!

This proves the FED, the Labor Department, the financial reporters and Wall Street advisors are morons doesn't it?

How do you lay off another 20,000 people and really really really increase employment by 0.1%? Come on... give us a break! We had better all get out of the stock market and just buy EUROs and gold quickly. This is nonsense and drivel news that now runs Wall Street!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...

But Asian markets were up and it looks like a good day in Europe too. WS can fool some of the people all of the time.

-- posted by BoltonCT

» walkerman_2007 - WS can fool some of the people all of the time.

In response to WS can fool some of the people all of the time. posted by BoltonCT:

Bolton

I am glad I get my financial advice from Bob Brinker (Americas most trusted financial advisor) and not Courtney Schlisserman whoever he is. Brinker has said no recession and he as been right. There has been no data confirming negative economic growth. Brinker is fully invested and bullish. So am I. His advice has made me a great deal of money over the years. If you act on the advice of this clown Schlisserman you are going to lose money.

-- posted by walkerman_2007

» Normxxx - WS can fool some of the people all of the time.

In response to WS can fool some of the people all of the time. posted by BoltonCT:

FWIW: The joblessness data has an acuracy of about ±100,000! I don't know what the standard error is on % employed. Anyways, they don't count those "no longer seeking employment" as unemployed- as near as I can figure it, those who have run out of benefits (out of sight, out of mind).

-- posted by Normxxx

» Normxxx - Growth In The Spring?

Investment Strategy:
"As Long As The Roots Are Not Severed... There Will Be Growth In The Spring." ... Chauncey, 'The Gardener'

By Jeffrey Saut | 28 April 2008

http://normxxx.blogspot.com/2008/05/grow...

-- posted by Normxxx

» BoltonCT - Suckers Rally?

`Suckers' Rally' signaled after S&P 500 April surge
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...

People are beginning to protect their retirement funds. Fidelity is trying to stem the tide of 401 retirement money being moved out of First Eagle Funds puts a 2% fee on withdrawals made with 90 days of purchase. In a coordinated effort advisors like Motley Fools, Warren Buffet, and others on Wall Street all said it is better to ride a depression out than protect your retirement. Better for them no doubt. Most advice in these days of no regulation and rampant corruption is self-serving.

We see the recession as potentially much more damaging abroad as long as outsourced manufacturing and not USA service industries bear the brunt.

The Institute for Supply Management's index of service businesses, which make up almost 90 percent of the USA economy, eased to 49.1, from 49.6 the prior month, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. A reading below 50 means a contraction in services. Builders, retailers and mortgage lenders are reeling from the worst real estate recession since the depression as property values fall and foreclosures rise. Job losses, surging fuel prices and tougher loan rules signal continued pressure as demand weakens.

All the American market futures are down at present.
Asian markets were mixed last night with China and Japan up and India, Hong Kong, and Taiwan down.

All of Europe is down this morning with the exception of Britain which is up significantly.

Oil prices continue to rise.

Yahoo! Inc., the Web company that spent three months fighting a takeover by Microsoft Corp. tumbled in early morning trading after the Microsoft scrapped the bid because Yahoo executives were greedy. The heck with the investors, Yahoo management thought they deserved a diamond studded golden parachute.

Metals Surge as Power Rationing Turns Out Lights in World's Biggest Mines

Hedge Fund Fees Shrink as U.S. Pensions Make Direct Investments
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...

-- posted by BoltonCT

» BoltonCT - The crystal ball

The cystal ball is cloudy today as always.

U.S. Stock-Index Futures Decline as Cisco declines before reporting earnings on network equipment.

Oil climbs to new high near $121

Asian markets were again mixed with distinct looks of being carefully regulated last night and therefore not revealing any trend.

Europe is in a fairly sharp downtrend on the order of 1% at the moment.

As soon as one publishes an historical market theory it seems the market sets out to refute it. To us it looks like the market is trying to undo Sy Harding's theories again. As we enter his "bad" summer season it looks more like the market could rally soon. Sy declared his "good season" last November just as the market began to collapse. Sy was right about gold declining though but is still wrong on his commodities bubble collapse prediction.

Bob Brinker must be feeling a lot better though because his long-term record is still quite good. The world is awash with cash with no safe or advantageous place to put it. In the past inflation was bad for the stock market but since everyone knows that it seems that little piece of historical knowledge is no longer useful and the market rally has cut some of its losses.

It looks more and more like Norm and Permabear will be the winners and TEOTWAWKI will be coming in 2009 as they predicted five or six years ago. TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It) is when all the world markets collapse together as inflation turns to depression. It is the final judgement day for economic excesses. Usually people say the market goes up when Democrats are elected so just to confound Sy Harding's history based predictions... this time the market probably will collapse.

Using history to predict the future as Sy does is like trying to steer a boat by looking back at its wake. You keep crashing into unexpected reefs. But he gives a lot of good and interesting advice along the way.

-- posted by BoltonCT

» Normxxx - Suckers Rally?

In response to Suckers Rally? posted by BoltonCT:

Watching Ringside For Round Two

http://normxxx.blogspot.com/2008/05/watc...

-- posted by Normxxx

» BoltonCT - April fools?

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig said ``serious' inflation pressures may prompt the central bank to raise interest rates and retail sales in Europe dropped by a record in March.

U.S. stock-index futures fell slightly as investors speculated a report on pending home sales would show that the housing slump is deepening, and as oil prices trade near a record high.

Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates said in Tokyo that the company put "a lot of effort" in the talks with Yahoo and has decided the two should pursue "independent paths." Yahoo lost the deal and now faces yet anther competitor.

Asian markets closed down last night after a general rally that lasted a few days. European markets are up about half a percent at this time.

John P. Hussman thinks there were a lot of fools in April and that the worst is yet to come.

-- posted by BoltonCT

» BoltonCT - Our "New" indicator testing update

India and Japan were down more than a point yesterday while most of the other Asian markets were only fractionally lower.

Most European markets started down about 1% but have at the moment recovered half that loss and they are just half way through their day.

Apparently the credit crunch is over because a few multi billion dollar buyouts are in play again just like a frothy stock market top when companies use their inflated stock values. Only now they can use negative (real) interest loans. This is a wonderful example of how the FED can help destroy the health and solvency of an economy the Japanese way trying to prevent a blip in unemployment. We are going into the Japanese quagmire now by bailing out and increasing debt just when we need to lean down and shore up our solvency problems.

You know we are in trouble when the Wall Street press is praising the FED... and they have been doing that for over a month now. First they frightened the fed with a crisis they manufactured and now they praise the FED for covering their debauchery with cash.

The old MACD continues to be bullish and the old Spiral (Parabolic SAR) appears close to a sell signal.

Our "New" indicator testing continues:
The New Spiral indicator has been telling us to cherry pick back into the market since early April and while the New MACD is confirming the cherry picking it has not confirmed that we have seen the low yet. However the trend still is near-term positive. It has not declared April a fool's month nor has it declared it a bottom just yet. It just says cherry pick in.

Personally, I would have liked to see the economy straighten itself out even if it meant with a little recession. I am concerned the FED is destroying our growth and productivity by encouraging more financial manipulation and gimmicks rather than fiscal and corporate responsibility. In their present mode they seem to guarantee us a financial TEOTWAWKI down the road.

-- posted by BoltonCT