Investment

» Jas_Jain - RE: JJ's Sorry (Broken) Record

In response to JJ's Sorry (Broken) Record posted by Normxxx:
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""[ Normxxx Here: I'm still betting we get through 2007 relatively unscathed. ]"

Are you denying the above? Have we gotten "through 2007 relatively unscathed?"

By attacking me you want to deny your own prediction made very recently? Evry time you want to go back 5 years ago or whatever?
Your desperation in mudding the water in our positions held, 2007 versus 2008-09 as turning points for the Scam Market and the economy, is obvious.

2008-09 would be the two worst years in a very long time, much worse than 2001-02. And if that happens you lose in our debate on identifying the Longwave winter turning point.
Scam Market and the economy peaked in 2007Q4. Got it?

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Normxxx - An Asymmetrical Unwind

Looks like we DID get through 2007 unscathed- the markets were up for the fifth year in a row, and there were no negative GDP quarters. Now for 2008...

An Asymmetrical Unwind Of The Great Credit Bubble Of The 21st Century

http://normxxx.blogspot.com/2008/01/asym...

-- posted by Normxxx

» axolotl - An Asymmetrical Unwind

In response to An Asymmetrical Unwind posted by Normxxx:
If 4th quarter growth is negative, it must be the first time in history that growth went from 4.9% down to zero in one quarter with the FED cutting during the same time. Christmas sales apparently were not great, but not a disaster. I retired my crystal ball in favor of flipping a coin and it says any recession will be mild.:-)

-- posted by axolotl

» Normxxx - A Vicious Cycle Sets In

As Consumers Pull Back, A Vicious Cycle Sets In

http://normxxx.blogspot.com/2008/01/vici...

-- posted by Normxxx

» Jas_Jain - Re:A Vicious Cycle Sets In

In response to A Vicious Cycle Sets In posted by Normxxx:
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This is a news to only those who weren't paying attenetion to how the Housing Bubble became the sole support fro the economy from falling into recession-to-be-followed-by-depression.

This Vicious Cycle will make all the cycles before look tame in comparison. Fasten your seatbelts!

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Inya Ivkovic - Browsing the morning papers

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB12005147...

» permabear - We've run out of bubbles

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Inv...

The view expressed in the above commentary reflects my own view that the government and especially the Fed has artificially boosted the economy and eliminated the downside of the business cycle. By putting off recession year after year and even decade after decade, they have created huge imbalances (budget deficit, trade deficit, massive buildup of consumer debt) that can only be remedied by recession. Because the natural flow of booms and busts has been suppressed, when the long overdue bust comes, it will unfortunately be a doozy.

-- posted by permabear

» Normxxx - We've run out of bubbles

In response to We've run out of bubbles posted by permabear:

...

that can only be remedied by recession.

Try Global DEpression!

-- posted by Normxxx

» axolotl - We've run out of bubbles

In response to We've run out of bubbles posted by permabear:

The current budget deficit is not too bad, but it will increase in a recession - spending will increase and tax revenue will decrease. Some of the demorats are talking TAX CUT here to help the economy. I think that we should try the free enterprise system and cut the world's highest corporate tax. The income tax needs to be eliminated or drastically changed. Next, those social programs that are part of the $54 trillion pie in the sky are going to have to be cut cut cut.

-- posted by axolotl

» permabear - We've run out of bubbles

In response to We've run out of bubbles posted by axolotl:

The reason that the budget deficit shrank for the past couple of years is because of the growing economy, which was artificially stimulated by Greenspan's housing bubble and yes Bush's tax cuts to some degree. But this shrinking deficit was always a temporary phenomenon. And as the economy goes into the tank, as you say the budget deficit is just going to explode.

Charlie Rangel is leading the charge on lowering the corporate tax cuts. But the democrats will only go along with this plan as long as they get something in return- namely tax cuts for the middle class and elimination of a lot of tax loopholes for both large corporations and the rich.

I agree with you that the entitlement programs will have to be slashed, because there won't be the money to pay for them with a reduced tax base. Nonetheless I predict that some day there will be a national health insurance plan that covers all Americans. It will only be implemented after the U.S. goes into Jas and Norm's depression. When so many people are out of work, penniless and without healthcare, there will be a public outcry for it. And in the end it will end up costing a lot less than the wasteful bureaucratic mess of a health care system we have now. As for Social Security, it ain't going anywhere. They are going to raise the retirement age, cut the COLA and raise the cap on the wealthy who today get a big break when it comes to Social Security taxes.

-- posted by permabear