Investment

» Normxxx - Doug Casey Files

Doug Casey Files: This Week In 'The Room'

http://normxxx.blogspot.com/2008/05/case...

-- posted by Normxxx

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» shallam - recession ? Definition ?

Are we in a recession ?

If you believe so, what definition do you use to make that conclusion ?

Why do you believe that the 2 quarters of negative GDP definition is inadedquate ?

-- posted by shallam

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» permabear - recession ? Definition ?

In response to recession ? Definition ? posted by shallam:

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) actually determines when a recession occurs. According to their own definition, GDP is not the final arbiter of recessions. Rather expansion and contraction of the economy is.

http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.ht...

According the Martin Feldstein, leader of the NBER, the U.S. has been sliding into recession since early in the year:

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idU...

There obviously is some recovery in the credit markets due to the flooding of money into the banks and financial institutions by the Fed. You've also got a dramatic drop in Fed Funds interest rates, and you have the rebate checks coming out this month. Probably all that stimulus is going to contribute to a bounce in the economy. The question is how sustainable is all this stimulus and is the economy going to be able to continue to grow with $120 oil prices, a housing market in the worst decline since the Great Depression, and consumers facing more debt than at any time in history. Already we have four straight months of contracting jobs and a 26 year low in consumer confidence. Personally I think the stock market rally is a bear market rally whose time is running out.

-- posted by permabear

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» Normxxx - Recession!?!

No one knows if we're in one or not. The 'two quarters of negative growth' is just a rule of thumb. The official pronouncement is by the NBER (based on a number of factors, not just GDP), and generally comes many months after the event!

-- posted by Normxxx

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» Normxxx - The Continuing Crisis

Thoughts On The Continuing Crisis

http://normxxx.blogspot.com/2008/05/cont...

-- posted by Normxxx

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» Normxxx - Lies And Other Statistics

Lies And Other Statistics

http://normxxx.blogspot.com/2008/05/lies...

-- posted by Normxxx

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» Normxxx - 2009: The 120-Year Cycle Trough Begins?

2009: The 120-Year Cycle Trough Begins?
Economic Collapse In September?

http://normxxx.blogspot.com/2008/05/2009...

-- posted by Normxxx

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» Normxxx - Confessions Of A Short Seller

Barron's Interview: Confessions Of A Short Seller

http://normxxx.blogspot.com/2008/05/barr...

-- posted by Normxxx

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» permabear - 2009: The 120-Year Cycle Trough Begins?

In response to 2009: The 120-Year Cycle Trough Begins? posted by Normxxx:

Interesting to see this degree of pessimism from Cliff Droke. He's probably been the biggest bull on all the bearish web sites for the past couple years. I don't know about that secret House meeting where TEOTWAWKI was discussed, but the rest of the article sounds more possible.

-- posted by permabear

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» Normxxx - 2009: The 120-Year Cycle Trough Begins?

In response to 2009: The 120-Year Cycle Trough Begins? posted by permabear:

I don't know about that secret House meeting where TEOTWAWKI was discussed, but the rest of the article sounds more possible.

I agree. Bush would never agree to letting the whole congress be privy to this! But, I have always had a weak spot for cycles. although they never seem to play out when you expect them to- but they have done remarkably, historically!

-- posted by Normxxx

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