Investment

» Buyorsell - Re: WLI Growth Rate Following the Scam Market Up

In response to Re: WLI Growth Rate Following the Scam Market Up posted by Jas_Jain:

Much appreciated. Sounds like ECRI is not forecasting recession, at least not yet.

Agree on the mo, saw the same thing in the tech exuberance.

US GDP growth sure appears to be slowing, I think your forecast should be right on target, save that it may get pushed out somewhat as US consumers look to the rise in equities to shore up their balance sheet after the fall in the value of their homes and this may give them a little more fuel than many expect.

Cheers!

-- posted by Buyorsell

» Q_out - WBBM-AM Interview

Anirvan Banerji was on WBBM this hour and stated that we are currently in a split economy. Manufacturing has been declining since mid-summer but the service sector is still growing. Because services predominate, the economy continues to grow and the risk of recession is diminishing.

In fact, he believes that the bond market has overestimated the risk of recession and the inverted yield curve is throwing out a false signal this time. Without a significant risk to recession, the Fed will not need to cut interest rates, but as inflationary pressures also ease, they will not need to raise them either.

Overall, Anirvan sees a period of "below trend" growth in the coming year.

Q_out

-- posted by Q_out

» Jas_Jain - WBBM-AM Interview

In response to WBBM-AM Interview posted by Q_out:

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"In fact, he believes that the bond market has overestimated the risk of recession and the inverted yield curve is throwing out a false signal this time."

Yes, we all know that economists have a better record of predicting recessions than the bond market and the Yield Curve.

You have been warned!

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» SteveT - U.S. inflation pressures rose in November - ECRI

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http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinv...

NEW YORK, Dec 8 (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures rose in November, pushed up by inflationary moves in measures of commodity prices, interest rates, and job and vendor performance, a report said on Friday.

The increase was partly offset by a disinflationary move in a measure of home loans, said the report by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

Its U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, which is designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 119.4 in November from a revised 118.8 in October, revised down from 119.9 in October.

"Despite its November uptick, the USFIG remains well below its October 2005 high," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI. "Thus, underlying inflationary pressures remain in a cyclical downtrend."

The index's annualized growth rate, which smoothes out monthly fluctuations, rose to minus 3.4 percent from a revised minus 5.1 percent in October, revised down from 3.7 percent in October.
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-- posted by SteveT

» SteveT - Gauge of U.S. economy rises in latest week - ECRI

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http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinv...

NEW YORK, Dec 8 (Reuters) - A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest period on stronger housing activity, lower jobless claims and higher commodity prices, a report showed on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 138.7 in the week ended Dec. 1 from 137.1 in the prior week.

Annualized growth in the week ended Dec. 1 rose to a 26-week high of 1.8 percent from 1.5 percent in the prior period.

"WLI growth has been recovering slowly but steadily from its summertime lows and is now at a 26-week high, thus the growth outlook for the U.S. economy, while still lackluster, is improving gradually," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The gauge rise was marginally offset by lower stock prices, Achuthan said.
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-- posted by SteveT

» Jas_Jain - Vow! Blast Off!!

For the week of 8 Dec 2006
Weekly Leading Index 140.8 +2.8%

All systems go for the Scam Market and the economy.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - Beware Of the Current ECRI Growth Rate

December 15, 2006

Beware Of the Current ECRI Growth Rate

Past Growth Rate at the current levels:

Date Index WLI growth

13-Jul-73 70.5 2.9
20-Jul-73 70.4 2.6
27-Jul-73 70.7 2.5
3-Aug-73 71.0 3.0
10-Aug-73 70.3 2.5

Recession began in November 1973.

Guess why?

Residential Fixed Investment was falling sharply. Very similar behavior to today's.

Housing is lot more important than what "soft landing" gurus are telling you.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - WLI Points to Not Just Soft Landing, But Re-accelaration

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15-Dec-06 139.7 +3.4%

Scam Lovers must be right about 2007H1 if WLI is a meaningful signal. I, of course, think that both are going to be proven wrong when the housing collapse becomes obvious during the Spring home-selling season (the last hope for sellers and those in denial).

It will be FAST & FURIOUS.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» SteveT - Gauge of U.S. economy falls in latest week - ECRI

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Fri Dec 22, 2006 10:30 AM ET

NEW YORK, Dec 22 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week, while annualized growth hit a 30-week high, a report said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 139.7 in the week to Dec. 15 from a downwardly revised 140.7 in the prior week, thanks to higher interest rates and lower commodity prices.

Annualized growth in the week ended Dec. 15 rose to 3.4 percent from 2.8 percent in the prior period.

"With WLI growth at a 30-week high, the U.S. economic growth outlook, while still restrained in the short term, is improving gradually," said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI.

Occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average, according to ECRI.

-- posted by SteveT

» Jas_Jain - An Easy Prediction -- WLI Will Fall

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For the week ending 12/22/06. Mortgage Applications' COLLAPSE and Scam Market being down are more than sufficient indicators.

is: ECRI Will NOT be able to predict the next recession 6 month before its onset. This is because it is already too late.

The Housing Collapse in the Spring of 2007 will settle the debate. Until then there is still some lingering hope for the bulls.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain