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» Jas_Jain - ECRI’s Rogue Economist Achuthan Now Forecasts a Mild Recession

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ECRI's Rogue Economist Achuthan Now Forecasts a Mild Recession

After failing to forecast the recession. (He only made a confirmation last week that we ARE IN A RECESSION).

The sad part is blind faithful of Lakshman Achuthan don't know the real record of ECRI and Achuthan, in particular. Did anyone know that the forecast date for the 2001 recession to start was "end of 2001" after predicting in late March 2001 that "recession was unavoidable?" (The March 2001 "call" was a forecast for the recession to begin some time later, hopefully, 6-8 months later in keeping with the claim of forecasting ahead of time).

June 2001 Edition of Pools & Spas:

"ECRI's Anirvan Banerji disagrees [with Conference Board's Ken Goldstein], noting in a recent Business Week article that almost all of his institute's leading indicators point to a national recession by the end of 2001. The key figure is unemployment, which has begun to creep up after
more than half a year at 4 percent. As unemployment rises and consumer confidence further erodes, a recession will occur, Banerji says. "A recession this year no longer appears to be avoidable," he says."

Please not the language. In march 2001 ECRI never said that the economy is in a recession; only that "a recession will occur." As we know "by the end of 2001" the recession was over. I believe that in 2002 ECRI and Banerji were still struggling with when in 2002 the recovery would begin. Most people don't have time to verify claims made by economists about their real past record in forecasting recessions.

Jas
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Bloomberg TV

25-March-2008

(Bloomberg TV) - This morning, ECRI managing director, Lakshman Achuthan, spoke with Bloomberg TV's Carol Massar in New York about ECRI's U.S. recession call, how it could have been avoided, and why the decline in GDP may be limited.

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?cli...

-- posted by Jas_Jain