Investment

» ECRI - WLI Edges Up

NEW YORK, Oct 6 (Reuters) - A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth edged up in the latest period, a report showed on Friday, with its annualized growth rate also up.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 136.4 in the week ended Sept. 29 from a nine-month low 135.1 in the prior week.

"While WLI growth has stabilized since the summer, it is still near its lows in spite of the rally in stock prices, suggesting that U.S. economic growth will continue to ease for the time being," said Lakshman Achuthan, a managing director at ECRI.

The index level declined due to higher stock prices, lower interest rates and higher commodity prices, Achuthan said.

Annualized growth in the week ended Sept. 29 rose to minus 0.6 percent from minus 0.9 percent in the prior period.

-- posted by ECRI

» ECRI - U.S. FIG Ticks Down

NEW YORK, Oct 6 (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures fell in September due mainly to disinflationary moves in measures of commodity prices, home loans, and vendor performance, a report on Friday said.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, which is designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, fell to 120.3 in September from 121.7 in August, which was downwardly revised from 123.1.

"For some time, the decline in underlying inflationary pressures has been pervasive and persistent. With the USFIG now at a 14-month low, the down turn has also become somewhat pronounced," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director for ECRI.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smoothes out monthly fluctuations, dropped to minus 3.4 percent from a downwardly revised minus 1.2 percent in August.

-- posted by ECRI

» ECRI - Eurozone FIG Update

LONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation pressures edged slightly lower in August but remained high, supporting expectations of more interest rate hikes this year in the euro area, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said on Friday.

ECRI's Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge, which forecasts cyclical turns in inflation across the 12-nation bloc, slipped to 104.6 in August from 104.7.

"The EZFIG slipped in August, but remains relatively high, suggesting that inflation pressures in the Eurozone have not yet come off the boil," ECRI said in a statement.

A Reuters poll of economists carried out after the European Central Bank on Thursday raised interest rates to 3.25 percent showed another quarter point hike to 3.5 percent is on the cards by the end of the year.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's comments that the bank would "monitor very closely" all developments to ensure price stability and that inflationary pressures persisted despite a sharp full in oil prices helped harden those expectations.

ECRI said easing inflation pressures in Germany, France and Italy were almost fully offset by a rise in Spanish inflationary pressures.

Despite some slippage, ECRI said inflation pressures remained elevated in Germany, France and Italy, the bloc's three largest economies.

The euro zone gauge uses a weighted average of ECRI's indices for Germany, France, Italy and Spain. It includes measurements of bonds yields, loans, raw material prices, employment and business activity.

-- posted by ECRI

» SteveT - Just Curious

.
Lakshman, when you have some free time I sure would appreciate any consideration you would care to give my curiosity. I realize revisions are constants with economic data. At times I've "anecdotally" noticed some of the ECRI numbers get rather large revisions. Are larger than normal revisions something that crop up randomly or are they more prone near turning points? Thank you.
.

-- posted by SteveT

» ECRI - WLI Edges Down

NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest period in response to weaker housing activity and rising job claims, a report showed on Friday. Its annualized growth rate also edged down.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 135.6 in the week ended Oct. 6 from 136.4 in the prior week.

"With WLI growth stuck in the doldrums, U.S. economic growth is likely to continue easing for the foreseeable future," said Lakshman Achuthan, a managing director at ECRI.

The index level declined due to slower housing activity, higher jobless claims and lower commodity prices, marginally offset by higher stock prices, Achuthan said.

Annualized growth in the week ended Oct. 6 fell to minus 1.0 percent from minus 0.6 percent in the prior period.

-- posted by ECRI

» Jas_Jain - Looks Like WLI Growth Rate IS Still In Negative Territory

--

That doesn't look good for bulls.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - Bad Bad New For Bulls

--

"While not forecasting a full-blown recession, Banerji warns "the slowdown is likely to be more serious than most people in the consensus are predicting.""

The market seems to be behaving very much like early 2001 and the WLI very mich like late 2000:

5-May-00 126.3 1.1
12-May-00 125.4 0.4
19-May-00 126.0 0.3
26-May-00 124.9 -0.3
2-Jun-00 125.8 -0.5
9-Jun-00 125.4 -0.5
16-Jun-00 125.2 -0.8
23-Jun-00 124.9 -0.7
30-Jun-00 125.5 -0.8
7-Jul-00 124.6 -1.1
14-Jul-00 125.8 -0.8
21-Jul-00 125.5 -0.6
28-Jul-00 125.2 -0.7
4-Aug-00 125.6 -0.3
11-Aug-00 125.2 -0.5
18-Aug-00 124.6 -0.9
25-Aug-00 125.1 -0.9
1-Sep-00 125.7 -0.8
8-Sep-00 126.2 -0.5
15-Sep-00 125.9 0.0
22-Sep-00 126.0 0.2
29-Sep-00 126.3 0.4
6-Oct-00 125.0 -0.1

This is eerily similar, Kirk. No?

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - Does Anyone Know When ECRI Forecasted Housing Slowdown, or Decli

--

Does Anyone Know When ECRI Forecasted Housing Slowdown, or Decline?

Using their Future Housing...

TIA,

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - Re: Does Anyone Know When ECRI Forecasted Housing...

In response to Does Anyone Know When ECRI Forecasted Housing Slowdown, or Decli posted by Kirk:

--

Thanks, Kirk. Do you have a date on the forecast?

The Houinng Sales and Prices broadly peaked during Aug-Sep'05. No? So, are you saying that ECRI predicted housing downturn in 2005Q1?

BTW, Housing Scams peaked in July'05 and Homebuilders Index some time last year.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - WLI Growth Rate Following the Scam Market Up

It is finally in the positive territory, but for how long?

18-Aug-06 135.1 -1.7
25-Aug-06 135.1 -1.7
1-Sep-06 135.6 -1.3
8-Sep-06 136.6 -0.8
15-Sep-06 135.5 -0.8
22-Sep-06 135.1 -0.9
29-Sep-06 136.4 -0.6
6-Oct-06 135.7 -0.8
13-Oct-06 136.5 -0.5
20-Oct-06 136.4 -0.1
27-Oct-06 -0.3
3-Nov-06 137.5 0.3

Growth rate of 0.3% is nothing to write home about.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain