Investment

» Jas_Jain - Achuthan (on Boob-berg) Keeps Getting Himself Deeper In Hole...

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Achuthan (on Boob-berg) Keeps Getting Himself Deeper In Hole With Double Talk

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?cli...

He claims that the process, or 'downturn," that could lead to recession has already begun but the recession can be averted. So, recession can happen and it may not happen?

What sort of dope has any confidence in this guy's ability to forecast recession ahead of time?

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - US growth index at 2001 recession level-ECRI [But NO Recession F

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US growth index at 2001 recession level-ECRI [But NO Recession Forecast!]

"A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth edged down in the latest week, while its annualized growth rate reached recession-area readings not seen since November 2001, a research group said on Friday."

In November of 2001 the economy had been in recession for 8 months. And now misleader-in-chief at ECRI is still not forecasting recession.

http://www.reuters.com/article/economicN...

US growth index at 2001 recession level-ECRI
Fri Feb 15, 2008

NEW YORK, Feb 15 (Reuters) - A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth edged down in the latest week, while its annualized growth rate reached recession-area readings not seen since November 2001, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index inched down to 133.4 in the week of Feb. 8 from 133.5 in the prior week.
The WLI fell due to higher interest rates, lower stock prices and weak housing, with the fall partly offset by lower jobless claims, said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.
The index's annualized growth rate skidded to minus 9.1 percent from minus 7.9 percent, reaching its lowest reading since the week of Nov. 9, 2001, when it was negative 9.2 percent.
"WLI growth is at recession-area readings, consistent with ongoing contractions in the financial and construction sectors," said Achuthan. "However ECRI's leading indexes for the manufacturing and non-financial services sectors have yet to confirm recessionary conditions." (Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Dan Grebler)

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - Why I Find Achuthan of ECRI So Disgusting?

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Why I Find Achuthan of ECRI So Disgusting?

Watch the video in the link:

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/...

and decide for yourself. Is the guy an economist or a politicians? He even gives bad name to politicians.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - Feldstein vs Achuthan On Recession

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Related comments:

http://investment.suite101.com/discussio...

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - US economy may still avert recession - ECRI

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And I "may still" become the Pope.

Jas

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http://www.reuters.com/article/economicN...

US economy may still avert recession - ECRI
Fri Feb 22, 2008 10:30am EST

NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) - A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week, and even though its annualized growth rate has reached readings seen in a recession, there might still be a chance to reverse it, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 132.3 in the week of Feb. 15 from 133.1 in the prior week, which was revised from 133.4.
The index fell due to higher interest rates and slower housing, offset in part by a rise in money supply and stock prices, said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.
The index's annualized growth rate plunged to minus 10.2 percent from minus 9.2 percent, reaching its lowest reading since the week of Oct. 26, 2001, when it was minus 11 percent.
"With WLI growth deep in negative territory, due mainly to weakness in the financial and construction sectors, the U.S. economy is on the verge of a recession," said Achuthan. "However, due to unusual factors affecting the manufacturing sector, it may still be possible for quick stimulus to avert a recession." (Reporting by Rodrigo Campos, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - Guru Lakshaman Has Painted Himself In a Corner

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See:

http://investment.suite101.com/discussio...

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» sam1000 - Guru Lakshaman Has Painted Himself In a Corner

In response to Guru Lakshaman Has Painted Himself In a Corner posted by Jas_Jain:

ECRI and Lakshman seems to have gone into hibernation for more than a week. I think they are probably going to announce that US is in a recession next time they go public.

-- posted by sam1000

» Jas_Jain - Rogue Economist, Lakshman Achuthan, Throws In the Towel and Says

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Rogue Economist, Lakshman Achuthan, Throws In the Towel and Says That Economy Is In Recession.

Please see the appended article. What happened to all the claims of being able to forecast recession 6-8 months, or "several quarters," in advance? Just like the last recession in 2001 when ECRI only called the recession AFTER it had already begun.

A month or so ago Achuthan claimed, vehemently, that if the stimulus package is passed the recession would be averted. The stimulus package was passed in record time and nothing has changed in that regard for quite some time and yet Achuthan ignored ECRI's indicator, WLI, that has been screaming recession for several months. I call such economists who deny that recession will occur, or is near, even after the economy is already in recession rogue economists. The Conference Board and UCLA Anderson School fall in that category too. These people are not scientists, but propagandists who keep misleading the public until they no longer can (after the recession is confirmed).

IMO, the economy would have been declared to be in recession since November 2007. If that is the case, Guru Achuthan is late by 5 months rather than forecasting recessions 6-8 months ahead of time. Such people are disgusting.

Jas
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http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/20/news/eco...

Slowdown could have been avoided
A well-respected economist says the U.S. is now in a recession...and that Congress and the Federal Reserve could have stopped it.

By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: March 20, 2008: 12:39 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Congress and the Federal Reserve missed their chance to keep the country from falling into recession by acting too slowly, according to a well-respected economist.
Lakshman Achuthan, the managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, said the economy has now fallen into what he calls "a recession of choice."
He argues that the economic stimulus package passed by Congress this year is too late to help many consumers and businesses and that the Federal Reserve was too timid when it started trimming interest rates last fall.
Since then the Fed has aggressively cut rates, most recently lowering them by three-quarters of a percentage point at its meeting Tuesday.
Financial pain hits close to home
"If they had done all this in the fourth quarter, I think we'd be having a different discussion," he said. "We might not have had Bear," he added, referring to the fire sale purchase of brokerage firm Bear Stearns (BSC, Fortune 500) by JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) that the Fed helped arrange over the weekend to avoid a collapse of Bear Stearns.
The ECRI, which forecasts a number of key economic readings such as employment, inflation and production from various business sectors, had been reluctant to join the rising tide of economists arguing that the economy has fallen into a recession. But it changed its call Thursday.
Achuthan said the tipping point for his firm's recession call was when its leading index for non-financial services, a sector of the economy that accounts for 62% of jobs, turned negative.
Although Achuthan said he saw weakness in the U.S. economy last fall, he did not make a recession forecast at that time because he thought it was possible the government could have done something then to prevent a recession.
He said low business inventories at the end of last year gave policymakers a chance to avoid the recession, because any spur to spending by businesses or consumers would have resulted in a quick pick-up in production.
"There was an opportunity that was wasted by policymakers because they didn't understand those dynamics," he said. "That is one aspect of how the policymakers have goofed and why this recession is a choice, not something that happened by bad luck and chance."
He added that the more decisive action taken so far this year by Congress and the Fed has come too late to stop the economy from falling into recession.
Congress passed a $190 billion economic stimulus package, but the biggest part of that legislation - tax refunds of about $600 per taxpayer, won't be in the hands of consumers until May at the earliest.
"It was a good idea that was horribly executed," he said. "Policymakers said time was of the essence. Unfortunately, they didn't understand what that really meant. They just do not understand how the business cycle works; it is not going to wait around for stimulus some months down the road.
And while the Fed has slashed interest rates by a total of two full percentage points at meetings in January and March, its initial cuts in September, October and December last year totaled only one percentage point.
Achuthan's forecast comes on a day that some other readings show the economy possibly heading into recession.
The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators fell 0.3% in February, and its January reading was revised lower. The latest report is the fifth straight month the indicator has fallen, the first time that has happened since 2001, the year of the last recession. A prolonged decline in this index typically signals a recession.
In addition, the latest weekly reading on initial jobless claims rose sharply, pointing to an increased likelihood that March will be the third straight month of job losses for the U.S. economy.

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - FW: US leading index slips, ECRI calls it recessionary

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http://www.reuters.com/article/economicN...

US leading index slips, ECRI calls it recessionary
Thu Mar 20, 2008 10:30am EDT

NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is "unambiguously" in a recession, a research group said on Thursday, as a weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell, marking a nine-month decline.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 130.8 in the week of March 14 from 132.1 in the prior week, revised down from 132.2.

"With the WLI having dropped more than 13 points in the last nine months, it is exhibiting a pronounced, pervasive and persistent decline that is unambiguously recessionary," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The WLI fell due to unfavorable moves in most of the components including lower stock prices, higher jobless claims, higher interest rates and weaker housing, said Achuthan.

The index's annualized growth rate was unchanged at minus 10.4 percent. (Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by James Dalgleish)

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» permabear - Rogue Economist, Lakshman Achuthan, Throws In the Towel and Says

In response to Rogue Economist, Lakshman Achuthan, Throws In the Towel and Says posted by Jas_Jain:

Blaming the Fed as Achuthan does, as well as Bob Brinker on his radio show, is a cop-out for missing the signals of recession. The signs have been there for just about anyone to see.

-- posted by permabear