Investment

» Jas_Jain - More On ECRI -- From Horse's Mouth

--
My apologies to horses, who are lot smarter than Achuthan, not to mention lot more useful. -- Jas

http://www.reuters.com/article/economicN...

Gauge of economy falls, recession looms: ECRI
Fri Feb 1, 2008 10:44am EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell hard and its annualized growth rate plunged to a six-year low, a research group said on Friday, indicating the risk of recession is very high.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 131.1 in the week to January 25 from 135.7 in the prior week, revised down from 135.8.

The WLI fell due to higher jobless claims, weaker housing activity and lower stock prices, said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The index's annualized growth rate plunged to minus 7.1 percent from minus 6.0 percent.
"WLI growth has dropped back to the six-year low seen in early January," Achuthan said.

"While the economy and employment did continue to grow through the end of 2007, the window of opportunity to avert a U.S. recession is about to slam shut."
(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by James Dalgleish)

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» permabear - ECRI’s WLI Further Confirms That Economy Has Been In Recession &

In response to ECRI’s WLI Further Confirms That Economy Has Been In Recession & posted by Jas_Jain:

Jas Jain isn't the only person who believes that a recession is already in place.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jh...

-- posted by permabear

» Jas_Jain - FWC: [ECRI] Recession Watcher's Rx: Stimulus Now!

--
"But Achuthan still holds out hope that a stimulus package from Washington could save the day."

So, now his forecast for a recession is based on what politicians do and not on economic data? Do you see why I call his a propagandist? If you read his statements for the past year you will conclude that he is a rogue economist/forecaster.

Jas
-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/...

Recession Watcher's Rx: Stimulus Now!

U.S. News & World Report

1-February-2008

(U.S. News & World Report) - Lakshman Achuthan, who predicts recessions over at the Economic Cycle Research Institute, is gearing up for his latest call.

His weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth sank, and the ECRI's annualized growth rate forecast plummeted back to a six-year low last seen in early January. In short, economic growth that managed to continue through the end of 2007 may be experiencing its last gasps.

"The window of opportunity to avert a U.S. recession is about to slam shut. This isn't good," he says.

Achuthan's opinion is worth a listen, as it comes with one of the better track records around. His group successfully predicted the last two U.S. recessions and managed to avoid a good chunk of false starts over the past couple of years, which is why his heightened concerns are another bit of bad news in a week when a host of reports showed weakness on everything from jobs to consumer spending.

But Achuthan still holds out hope that a stimulus package from Washington could save the day.

He reminds us that recessions rarely happen without the factory sector throwing in the towel. Today's report from the Institute of Supply Management showed some surprising resilience in the sector that could continue if-and only if-consumer demand doesn't fall off a cliff. The only way that will happen, he says, is if they get that extra infusion of government cash in the form of the $150 billion stimulus package making its way through Congress. And they need it now.

"That may give us this moment to sneak something in before the window slams shut," he says. "You could do something later this year, and it'll have nothing to do with averting a recession. You have to be doing something today. Or yesterday."

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» permabear - FWC: [ECRI] Recession Watcher's Rx: Stimulus Now!

In response to FWC: [ECRI] Recession Watcher's Rx: Stimulus Now! posted by Jas_Jain:

If in fact the U.S. is already in recession than ECRI has already missed the call. ECRI totally missed the housing downturn from day one repeatedly saying housing was near a bottom month after month after month. The economic headlines give you all the information you need. Employment losses, manufacturing contraction, housing meltdown, retail store after retail store showing declining sales, profit declines, the financial industry in turmoil. Even the GDP report for the last quarter showing growth of .6 percent....that's as close to recession as you get.

-- posted by permabear

» Jas_Jain - FW: Re -- ECRI Weekly Leading Index

--
Sent: Friday, February 08, 2008 7:38 AM
Subject: ECRI Weekly Leading Index

JB: "The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) rose to 133.5 for the week ending February 1 from an unrevised 131.1. The smoothed, annualized growth rate, however, decreased to -7.9% from an unrevised -7.1%. After having appeared to stabilize several weeks ago, the ECRI growth rate has resumed its downward trend."

B: "Still no recession "forecast" . . .?"

OK, guys, here is my take:

December 24, 2007 press release from ECRI: "The ECRI leading U.S. index's growth rate has hit a 5-year low of -4.8%. Typically a -5% to -6% reading is needed for a recession."

Amazingly, the growth rate skipped -5.0 to -6.0% range. From -4.8% it went below -6.0%. Hence, no recession call!

Achuthan ignored the low growth rates during Dec'00-Feb'01 and then made the recession call in late March AFTER the economy was already in recession. This time he would be late by at least 3 months.

BTW, from July'07 the long-term bonds have out-performed Scams by 30%!!!! If Guru Lakshman had called the cycle turn ahead of time, as he claims, his followers would have been able to "Beat the Cycle." Now, the Cycle is beating the crap out of his followers.

I have downgraded Lakshman Achuthan from a propagandist to a charlatan. He is a certifiable agent of the Crooks and his job is to keep born-and-bred dopes in Scams. And I know Scam Lovers who are cult followers of guru Lakshman.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» sam1000 - FW: Re -- ECRI Weekly Leading Index

In response to FW: Re -- ECRI Weekly Leading Index posted by Jas_Jain:

I wonder if ECRI is not catching accurately the jobless claims as there are now many jobless self-employed (not part of initial unemployment claims) who are in large numbers in the US economy as compared to the previous cycles and so the WLI is not falling as sharply as it should?

Hence they are probably inaccurate in forecasting recession yet?

-- posted by sam1000

» Jas_Jain - A Far Better and HONEST Recession Indicator

--
SEE:
http://investment.suite101.com/discussio...

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Normxxx - Lakshman Achuthan on FOX TV

Lakshman Achuthan on FOX TV on the 'threatening' recession.

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/...

-- posted by Normxxx

» permabear - Lakshman Achuthan on FOX TV

In response to Lakshman Achuthan on FOX TV posted by Normxxx:

Lakshman looks a little "behind the curve" to me.

-- posted by permabear

» Jas_Jain - More Evidence on Achuthan of ECRI + A Culture of Deception

--
I just read Norm's post and Perma's comment. My take...

Recession Forecasting: More Evidence on Achuthan of ECRI + A Culture of Deception

From ECRI website: "On Friday ECRI's managing director, Lakshman Achuthan, spoke on Fox Business Network about the fact that a recessionary downturn has begun..."

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/...

And yet he, or ECRI, has NOT YET made a "call," or forecast, of a recession! It appears that he already has a premeditated plan to blame the policymakers when the recession does become an accepted reality way before he makes the call. What would end up happening is that Achuthan will claim that the recession began in late 2007 because policymakers were too slow to act in 2008 and the economy knew that fact in advance and went into recession anticipating the delays by policymakers!

A Culrure of Deception

Those who enjoy economic discussion among a bimbo, Liz McDonald of Forbes (a bigger bambo, Dennis Kneale, was shipped from Forbes to CNBC to help out), a charlatan, and two talking heads in-between should take the time to watch the Fox Business News video at the above link. Forbes is a good production factory for bambos and bimbos. Propaganda is lot easier with bambos and bimbos because they don't need to consciously lie.

Please keep in mind that all economic commentary is about people's behavior. The worst behavior, in terms of lack of honesty or knowledge, is to be found among those who are frequently on financial TV. Breeding economics and political dopes is the goal of America's ruling economic elite (Forbes being very much a part of it) and they have the money and necessary resources.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain