Investment

» Normxxx - Recession in 2007?

Whatever happened to that recession in 2007?

-- posted by Normxxx

» Jas_Jain - Re: Recession in 2007?

In response to Recession in 2007? posted by Normxxx:

--

You missed it, XXX? It has been here already. As you know, the official announcement takes 7-10 months.

Yup, I have been saying for the past three months that the US economy IS already in recession. And it IS.

IF I am proven to be correct do you admit defeat in our forecasting debate for almost two years? AS far as the Scam Market peaking is concerned it is extremely likely that I have already won with THE TOP on 10/11/07.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» sam1000 - The Latest ECRI’s WLI Flashing RED

In response to The Latest ECRI’s WLI Flashing RED posted by dr_mohan:

Lakshman refers to "WLI's recent decline is not based on pervasive weakness among its components".

Does anyone know how many weeks is required to satisfy "pervasive weakness"?

-- posted by sam1000

» Normxxx - The Latest ECRI’s WLI Flashing RED

In response to The Latest ECRI’s WLI Flashing RED posted by sam1000:

Does anyone know how many weeks is required to satisfy "pervasive weakness"?

At least one more than any of the WLI components have been weak.

-- posted by Normxxx

» Jas_Jain - RE: The Latest ECRI’s WLI Flashing RED

In response to The Latest ECRI’s WLI Flashing RED posted by sam1000:

--
"Does anyone know how many weeks is required to satisfy "pervasive weakness"?"

It HAS BEEN pervasive for several months except that ECRI was working with KNOWN bad data on Mortgage Applications for at least 8 months. What I mean by this is that due to the Mortgage Crisis the relationship between applications and actual purchases and refis broke down. Do you understand what I mean or it is confusing?

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - Achuthan IS a Propagandist and a Bubble-Meister

--
Anyone who thinks that he will make a recession call before the recession begins is dreaming. He will be late anywhere from 2-6 months rather than be ahead by 6-8 months as he has been claiming all these years.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - Evidence Keeps Mounting...

--
Evidence Keeps Mounting...

That Achuthan is a propagandist.

Weekly Leading Index 136.6 Growth Rate -6.7% 4 Jan 2008

There 100 independent confirmations, if we include reports from companies that supply to consumers, that the economy is in recession.

As I have been claiming for a long time that Achuthan will never forecast the recession until after the economy is found to be recession. People sell themselves for money all the time and Lakshman is a perfect example of that. Unfortunately, the Propaganda Machine has the money to buy anyone who has influence, or has blind followers. Kirk has been a fine example of a blind faithful of Lakshman. And he will pay dearly for his blind faith.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - The Latest From ECRI

--
01/11/08: "WLI growth has now dropped to a new six-year low. Even so, it is still possible for prompt policy action to help avert a recession," Hubman said.

01/08/08: ""A lot of things are teetering on the edge of tipping toward a recession," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute..." "If these downward trends in the leading indicators continue for much longer, we will end up with a recession," Achuthan said.

This explains why Lakh was looking so down, almost depressed, on Friday on boob-tube. He will have lot to be depressed about over the coming months.

Jas

-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews...
US leading index growth rate at six-year low -ECRI
Fri Jan 11, 2008 10:30am EST

NEW YORK, Jan 11 (Reuters) - A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth rose slightly on lower interest rates and higher commodity prices but its annualized growth rate fell to a low not seen since the 2001 recession, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 136.6 in the week of Jan. 4 from 135.1 the prior week.
The positive effect of lower interest rates and higher commodity prices was offset by lower stock prices, said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI.

WLI annualized growth rate fell to minus 6.7 percent from minus 6.3 percent, revised down from minus 6.2 percent. It was last that low on Nov. 16, 2001, when it hit negative 7.6 percent according to revised ECRI data.

"WLI growth has now dropped to a new six-year low. Even so, it is still possible for prompt policy action to help avert a recession," Hubman said. (Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by James Dalgleish)

--------------------------------------------------
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/arti...

Economy Teetering Near A Recession; Stocks Sell Off Hard
January 08, 2008: 08:05 PM EST

Jan. 9, 2008 (Investor's Business Daily delivered by Newstex) --
Don't bet against the U.S. consumer, economists usually caution. But a lot of people are betting on a recession this year.
Online traders put the odds of a U.S. recession at 62%, up from 46% a month ago, according to Intrade, a unit of Dublin, Ireland-based Trade Exchange Network.
The forward-looking pending-home sales index fell 2.6% in November, the latest sign that housing has yet to find a bottom.
Other economic data also suggest darker days ahead. Unemployment has spiked to 5%, manufacturing is contracting, oil has hit $100, holiday sales were sluggish, and business spending has stalled.
The R-Word
"A lot of things are teetering on the edge of tipping toward a recession," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
Stocks reflect the gloom, with heavy selling on Tuesday after AT&T (NYSE:SBT) (NYSE:T) warned of weak consumer demand. The Nasdaq has fallen 14.7% from its October peak, while the S&P 500 is down 11.8%.
The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped 25 basis points to 3.78% on sentiment that the Federal Reserve will keep cutting rates.
Futures traders unanimously expect at least a 25-basis-point cut to 4% at the central bank's Jan. 29-30 meeting, with most expecting a half-point 13ove. The Fed has already slashed borrowing costs by a full percentage point 19ince September.
"I think if we move from where we are today by another 100 basis points during 2008 it would probably be a good thing for the economy," said Martin Feldstein, head of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of U.S. business cycles.
Feldstein, citing a "serious risk" of recession, also told CNBC he would like a fiscal stimulus package to bolster the economy.
President Bush has said he's mulling a stimulus plan, but he offered no details.
While a recession is typically defined as two straight quarters of the economy contracting, NBER defines it more broadly as a "significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months."
NBER often takes several months, even years, to call the start and end of recessions.
Evidence that the slowdown is spreading beyond the long-suffering housing sector has grown.
Last week, the Institute for Supply Management's factory index slumped below 50, signaling contraction. Export orders, which have helped offset the drag from housing, also slowed amid signs of economic head winds in Europe, Canada and elsewhere.
Employers added just 18,000 jobs in December, the lowest in more than four years. The jobless rate jumped to a two-year high of 5%.
Some economists say the rise in unemployment in recent months heralds a recession.
But others argue the data aren't weak enough to call an end to the six-year expansion just yet.
"The recession talk has gotten a bit ahead of itself," said Mark Vitner, an economist at Wachovia. (NYSE:WB)
But, he said, "Clearly the economy is struggling. If we avoid a recession, as we expect to, we'll still have very weak economic growth."
Some observers worry that a Fed rate cut could fuel inflation, which is already running hotter than the Fed would like.
The National Federation of Independent Business said Tuesday that 16% of small-business owners reported higher selling prices in December vs. 9% in September. Meanwhile, the number of businesses planning to raise prices rose to 26%.
"The percent of owners reporting higher prices suggests that inflation will be showing some new, unwanted viability," said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg.
But many say the slowing economy will naturally cool prices, giving the Fed plenty of room to cut.
The NFIB's overall small-business optimism index edged up in December, but just off a 14-year low.
The ECRI's leading U.S. index ticked higher in the latest week. But the annualized growth rate fell to -6.2%, the weakest since Nov. 16, 2001, at the end of the last recession.
The index's components include housing activity, job growth, interest rates, investor confidence, money supply growth, corporate profits and productivity.
"If these downward trends in the leading indicators continue for much longer, we will end up with a recession," Achuthan said.

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - FWC: Gauge of US economy up, economy still vulnerable - ECRI

--
"The weekly index's annualized growth rate rose to minus 6.5 percent from minus 7.1 percent, which was a six-year low.""

"Minus 7.1 percent" and no recession call yet? And six years ago the economy, even though technically just out of recession, and the Scam Market were in horrible shape. Jobs were being lost at the fastest rate in years.

Lakshman forgot to mention the "stronger housing activity" for the gain in WLI for the week ending January 11, 2008. The Mortgage Applications indexes were flying into the stratosphere that were the basis of "stronger housing activity during Jun-Nov'07.

What makes Lakshman a propagandist, and not a scientist, is that he claimed that ECRI only makes the forecast of recession being extremely unlikely or highly likely. However, "economy still vulnerable" doesn't fall in either category. New language from ECRI almost every week and never putting a number on the odds for recession within the 6-8 month lead time window that he claimed for a very long time.

Most honest people know that the economy is already in recession or will be in recession lot sooner than 6 months lead time for ECRI to make the recession call. Both the Federal reserve and the Federal Govt have panicked and that is the best indicator that we are in a recession and they just want the stimulus to get the economy out of the recession. The 2001 stimulus created one +ve quarter between two -ve quarters.

Jas

-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNe...

Gauge of US economy up, economy still vulnerable - ECRI
Fri Jan 18, 2008 10:30am EST

NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters) - A weekly gauge of future U.S. growth rose slightly, as did its annualized growth rate -- but the rate remained near a six-year low, underscoring the economy's vulnerability, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) rose to 137.4 in the week of Jan. 11 from 136.2 in the prior week, revised downward from 136.6.
The index rose on lower jobless claims and higher industrial commodity prices, which were partly offset by lower stock prices and higher interest rates, said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's managing director.
The weekly index's annualized growth rate rose to minus 6.5 percent from minus 7.1 percent, which was a six-year low.
"Despite its latest uptick, WLI growth remains near its worst readings since the 2001 recession, underscoring the economy's heightened vulnerability," Achuthan said. (Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)

"Despite its latest uptick, WLI growth remains near its worst readings since the 2001 recession, underscoring the economy's heightened vulnerability," Achuthan said. (Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - ECRI’s WLI Further Confirms That Economy Has Been In Recession &

--
February 01,2008

ECRI's WLI Further Confirms That Economy Has Been In Recession & Indicates Depression Ahead

JB: "The ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) fell to 131.1 for the week ending January 25 from a downwardly revised 135.7 (previously 135.8). The smoothed, annualized growth rate, however, decreased to -7.1% from an unrevised -6.1%. This ends two straight weeks of improvement for the growth rate."

The CRASH in WLI level to 131.1 from 135.7 is not just another confirmation that the economy has already been in recession but the first confirmation of my forecast of this recession sliding easily into a depression. How so? It is a growing series and it is back to where it was 50 months ago. This behavior was last seen between 1970-1982, a period of very bad recessions and deep recessions. In 2001, it was seen in September when the economy was already in recession for 6 months (the worst of WLI is always seen after the recession and during the early period of a recovery!). Tells you how leading the indicator really is; as a matter of fact, it has been turned into a lagging indicator by back-adjusting (or back-testing)!

Once and for all, Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI would be proven to be a bubble-meister and a propagandist and not a scientist. Dismal science has a lot to do with human behavior of economists and not due to anything inherent. Most of the economists that have access to the public via MSM are employed by businesses for the purpose of propaganda, e.g., NAR and CAR.

Never look to an economist for the forecast of recessions and depressions!

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain