Investment

» Jas_Jain - Getting Worse and Worse

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Week ending 30 Nov 2007:

Weekly Leading Index 138.7 -2.7

This despite huge gains in Scams and gangbuster increase in Mortgage Aopplications. So, something is wrong and we know what that is -- problems in the credit markets.

It Is the Debt, Stupid! (That drives the US economy).

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - More of the Same -- WLI Growth Getting Worse and Worse and Worse

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Weekly Leading Index 138.0 -3.8 7 Dec 2007

ECRI econ-meisters are sleeping at the wheel and refuse to call recession when the data confirm recession based on my analysis.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - Latest ECRI data and comments

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Latest ECRI data and comments at:

http://investment.suite101.com/discussio...

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - ECRI Inching Towards Recession, But Still Hedging

December 24, 2007

ECRI Inching Towards Recession, But Still Hedging

"The ECRI leading U.S. index's growth rate has hit a 5-year low of -4.8%. Typically a -5% to -6% reading is needed for a recession."

Cutting too close? I think so. If you look at the long-tern trend of WLI, it is lot worse than the yearly growth rate of -4.8%.

Jas
-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-
http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/...

Nov. Spending Hot, Outlook Cloudy

Investors Business Daily
24-December-2007
(Investors Business Daily) - Dec. 24, 2007 (Investor's Business Daily) -- Americans spent at their fastest pace in two years in November, the Commerce Department said Friday, easing concerns about a near-term recession.
Spending jumped 1.1% from October, the biggest gain since July 2005 and easily beating forecasts.
Incomes rose 0.4%, below the expected 0.5% rise. But wages were up a healthy 6.1% from last year.
Many analysts had expected the economy to slow sharply or even fall into recession amid severe housing and credit woes. But decent job and wage growth have so far bolstered consumer spending.
"You can bet there are a lot of Wall Street economists revising their fourth-quarter GDP forecasts," said Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research. "This economic party makes recession talk laughable."
He said he may boost his fourth-quarter growth target to a 2% annual rate from the current 1.7%.
"The bottom line is that Americans are fully employed and they're earning solid incomes and they spend," Yamarone said.

Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute, agrees that "doomsayers" who predicted a recession in 2007 have been proved wrong.
"But looking forward at 2008, we've got problems," he said.
The ECRI leading U.S. index's growth rate has hit a 5-year low of -4.8%. Typically a -5% to -6% reading is needed for a recession.
Housing is getting worse, he says, and "we're starting to see layoffs."

Jobless claims have picked up, with the 4-week average climbing to a 2-year high in the latest week.
Still, stocks rallied on the spending data and strong earnings from Research In Motion. (NASDAQ:RIMM) The Nasdaq rose 1.9% and the S&P 500 1.7%.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 12 basis points to 4.17%, in part due to worrisome inflation data.
The income report's PCE deflator rose 0.6% from October and 3.6% vs. a year earlier -- both the highest since late 2005.
The core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.2% vs. a year earlier. That's the most since March and above the Federal Reserve's 1% to 2% comfort zone.
"This could limit Fed rate cut actions going forward unless the economy is weak enough to offset inflation risks," Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., said in a note.
But other economists don't think the Fed's hands will be tied.
"The inflation outlook is not too scary," Achuthan said. "There's more room for policy action than people think. That's why I say recession is not inevitable."

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - Latest Quotes From ECRI and My take

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Latest Quotes From ECRI and My take:

http://investment.suite101.com/discussio...

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - ECRI’s WLI Growth Rate, -5.2%, Falls In the ECRI’s Recession Ran

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http://investment.suite101.com/discussio...

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - ECRI’s Unrelenting Mantra of “stronger housing activity” During

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ECRI's Unrelenting Mantra of "stronger housing activity" During 07/06/07-11/16/07

Nov 16, 2007: "The effect of higher rates and jobless claims was partially offset by stronger housing activity and higher stock prices, said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI."

"NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) - A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth edged up due to higher stock prices, lower interest rates and stronger housing activity..."

"NEW YORK, Aug 10 (Reuters)...The fall in the index was partly offset by stronger housing activity, Achuthan said."

"NEW YORK, July 13 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week due to measures of stronger housing activity, lower jobless claims and higher stock prices..."

"NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth edged up in the latest week due to lower interest rates and stronger housing activity..."

Talk about clueless economists, or dismal scientists. Where they blind to the reality or were they purposely misleading the public?

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» permabear - ECRI’s Unrelenting Mantra of “stronger housing activity” During

In response to ECRI’s Unrelenting Mantra of “stronger housing activity” During posted by Jas_Jain:

To say that the housing market is stronger is absolutely absurd. Housing is in total meltdown mode and has been for over a year. Those who are predicting a bottom in early '08 are the same ones who predicted a bottom in early '07. As I said before ECRI carries a positive bias and I have a hard time believing they are going to predict it when they are so blind about the reality of the housing situation.

New-Home Sales Plunge by 9 Percent
By JEANNINE AVERSA - 1 hour ago

WASHINGTON (AP) - Sales of new homes plunged last month to their lowest level in more than 12 years, a grim testament to the problems plaguing the housing sector.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that new-home sales tumbled by 9 percent in November from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 647,000. That was the worst showing since April 1995, when the pace of sales was 621,000.

-- posted by permabear

» Jas_Jain - ECRI’s Unrelenting Mantra of “stronger housing activity” During

In response to ECRI’s Unrelenting Mantra of “stronger housing activity” During posted by permabear:

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"As I said before ECRI carries a positive bias and I have a hard time believing they are going to predict it when they are so blind about the reality of the housing situation."

You are giving them the benefit of the doubt by calling them blind to facts. I read their comments during 2000-01 and I have concluded that they purposely mislead the public to serve their corporate client base. Their recent comments about "stronger housing activity" fully confirm my conclusion that they cannot be trusted.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - Bubble-meister Refuses to Give Recession Odds

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Bubble-meister Refuses to Give Recession Odds

January 02, 2008

Bubble-meister Lakshman Achuthan appeared on Boob-berg early this morning (before the ISM report came out). He was asked about what are the odds for a recession. He said, "we don't give odds." We only forecast is recession is highly unlikely or very likely. We can safely assume that he thinks that the recession is highly unlikely.

We shall find out in months to come because the economy is already in recession.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain