Investment

» Zmrkt - Re: Recession? Response to Jas

In response to Re: Recession? posted by Jas_Jain:

If I understand you correctly than we are agreed, and I clarify, this downturn may be steeper than a recession and here I was referring to the possibility of a depression. As per the current conditions, in my op that was the work of excess liquidity and the subsequent extinction of risk premia. This created the bubbles in most asset classes but more importantly in leveraged assets which we are beginning to see affected by the rise in real rates. In regards to the generals, etc., I am not sure what you mean here, but suffice to say even George and not W but Custer is well known for his stand. And of recession forecasting, I don't care if they back test the data, use regression or a crystal ball, I would just hate to be buying on the dips when the bulls start to look like Little Bighorn. Good luck with your investing and do be careful.

-- posted by Zmrkt

» Jas_Jain - Re: Recession? Response to Jas

In response to Re: Recession? Response to Jas posted by Zmrkt:

--
"If I understand you correctly than we are agreed, and I clarify, this downturn may be steeper than a recession and here I was referring to the possibility of a depression."

Yes, it is going to be a whopper with triple meat and quarduple cheese. No needs for any vegetables.

The market is first going to wound the bears seriously and then slaughter the bulls.

Those who playedsafe since 1998 would come out ahead.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Zmrkt - Re: Recession? Response to Jas

In response to Re: Recession? Response to Jas posted by Jas_Jain:

I would agree that the probability exists for a market surge given the cooperative injections of liquidity by multiple central banks as well as the heightened chance that the fed lowers the ffr, but I suspect you are correct that the bears will have their day.

-- posted by Zmrkt

» Fahrenheit451 - Lakshman Returning?

I wonder if Lakshman is going to come back?
.
One advantage of this place is that it ought to get more readers, on account of not requiring registration to read posts.

-- posted by Fahrenheit451

» Zmrkt - Lakshman Returning?

In response to Lakshman Returning? posted by Fahrenheit451:

It is awfully quiet out there? Thoughts? Here are a few, the Maestro is saying less than 50% chance of recession (some are reading into it thinking it's going to be worse). I think Jim Rogers and the better known Buffett are in the recession camp. And it sure feels like there's a Helicopter overhead with the fall of the greenback... and given that the housing slowdown is nowhere close to over, looks like more liquidity....I hope everyone has some gold...

Cheers and good investing

-- posted by Zmrkt

» runner26 - Lakshman Returning?

In response to Lakshman Returning? posted by Fahrenheit451:

He has posted where Kirk moved.

-- posted by runner26

» Jas_Jain - Precipitous Fall In ECRI’s WLI Growth Rate

--
Precipitous Fall In ECRI's WLI Growth Rate

WLI = Weekly Leading Indicator

From ECRI comments:

July 27, 2007: ""Despite market jitters, WLI growth is holding near three-year highs, providing reassurance about the resilience of the U.S. expansion," said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI."

Nov 21, 2007: "Leading index growth rate at a 63-week low: ECRI"

From "three-year highs" to "63-week low" in less than four months, if that is not precipitous fall then what is. I have maintained for quite some time that ECRI will NOT forecast the next recession 6-8 months ahead as their econ-meisters claim. I can almost guarantee that they will predict the recession after it begins.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Jas_Jain - ECRI’s WLI Confirms Recession

--
November 30, 2007

ECRI's WLI Confirms Recession

ECRI's WLI:
Date Index Growth Rate

23-Apr-04 136.0 +9.4%
20-Jan-06 138.3 +3.8%
08-Jun-07 143.7 +6.7%
23-Nov-07 138.1 -1.8%

Index is deteriorating fast over the past 6 months and we know why. Please note that WLI is a growing series, like the real GDP, long-term, and no growth for 22 months is a big negative sign. Also, 1.5% growth over 43 months is the lowest, except for periods following recessions (most series and growth rates bottom after the recession is over).

Don't expect the economists at ECRI to make the recession call until months after the recession has already begun. They are in propaganda business.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» permabear - ECRI’s WLI Confirms Recession

In response to ECRI’s WLI Confirms Recession posted by Jas_Jain:

Agree with you Jas. While ECRI's numbers may be pointing negative, I will be amazed to actually here Lackshman utter the word "recession". I don't care who you are, everyone carries a bias of one sort or another. Jas and I clearly have a bearish bias. Every time I see Lackshman interviewed or posting over here, he always has an optimistic (bullish) bias to his views. We'll see if he and ECRI can actually cross that line to make a recession call.

-- posted by permabear

» Jas_Jain - ECRI’s WLI Confirms Recession

In response to ECRI’s WLI Confirms Recession posted by Jas_Jain:

--
Bud Conrad: "Lacksman Alcuthan (sp?) (ECRI economist) nicely provided data for talks in years gone by. I looked in detail at historical data and found that they made major revisions well after initial publication. As you say, they are in the propaganda business."

Hello Bud,

It is Lakshman Achuthan. Achuthan & Co claim that ECRI has predicted every recession in advance since 1970s. It is a lie. They would have predicted the recessions when back-tested! What this means is that they have adjusted the index so that it would have predicted the recessions. The only recession that they predicted in advance, to the best of my knowledge and search, is that of 1990-01. The founder, Geoffrey Moore, predicted 2/3 probability of recession during 1995-96. The recession of 2001 was predicted by ECRI in late March 2001, after it began. It is fascinating to read their shifting commentaries during 2000-01. They always use vague language (I have read or heard more than 30 terms for the economy's future!) and NEVER give a number for the probability of recession. When ECRI fails to forecast the current recession, a cinch, its fraudulent claim of predicting recession 6-8 months in advance will be exposed. Yes, they are in propaganda business. That is where the money is!

"The indications of the economy slowing are everywhere except in the government number for GDP at 4.9% last quarter. They used 1.7% as their measure of inflation. I think it is 6% to 10 % or so giving a (8% - 1.7% = 6.3% less growth). Applying that to the 4.9% real GDP turns the result into minus -1.4% GDP. Bud"

On this subject we disagree. Inflation numbers reported are the best we have and guesses by inflationists are wishful thoughts at best. The recession began no earlier than September 2007.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain