Investment

» Jas_Jain - Re: WLI Slips

In response to WLI Slips posted by Kirk:

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5-Jan-07 141.7 4.1
3-Aug-07 142.0 5.2

A very little move over the past 7 months. If it falls to 138.3 then we will be back to Jan'06. Looks like the liquidity is drying up and WLI is highly dependent on liquidity-driven data.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» SteveT - Gauge of U.S. economy slips in latest week-ECRI

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Fri Aug 17, 2007 10:30AM EDT

NEW YORK, Aug 17 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week on higher interest rates and lower commodities prices, and the measure's annualized growth rate fell to a 16-week low, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) eased to 141.8 in the week ended Aug. 10 from 141.9 in the prior week, revised from 142.

The annualized growth rate in the index declined to 4.2 percent from a revised 5.1 percent in prior week. It was originally reported at 5.2 percent.

"While a pullback in WLI growth to a sixteen-week low indicated a slight dulling in U.S. economic growth prospects, this is far from a recessionary downturn, and the economy remains resilient in the near term," said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI.

The fall in the index was partially offset by higher stocks, Hubman said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/economicN...
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-- posted by SteveT

» ECRI - WLI Slips

In response to WLI Slips posted by Kirk:

We'd need to see the classic "three Ps," a pronounced, persistent and pervasive decline in the WLI and other ECRI leading indexes. We're not near that type of performance yet. If credit markets unstick by fall the economy should be okay. Stay tuned to the the WLI though. It's the best objective read on where we're headed, and it's promptly available.

-- posted by ECRI

» DrToast - Achuthan of ECRI Doesn't Sees Recession from Subprime Fallout

Good interview: Achuthan of ECRI Doesn't Sees Recession from Subprime Fallout
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/BBR...

-- posted by DrToast

» Jas_Jain - Re:Achuthan of ECRI Doesn't Sees Recession from Subprime Fallou

In response to Achuthan of ECRI Doesn't Sees Recession from Subprime Fallout posted by DrToast:

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Very reassuring, especially, for California.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» pbradford6 - Achuthan of ECRI Doesn't Sees Recession from Subprime Fallout

In response to Achuthan of ECRI Doesn't Sees Recession from Subprime Fallout posted by DrToast:

Thanks for posting this. I tried to listen to it on XM radio and missed half of it.

-- posted by pbradford6

» DrToast - Achuthan of ECRI Doesn't Sees Recession from Subprime Fallout

In response to Achuthan of ECRI Doesn't Sees Recession from Subprime Fallout posted by DrToast:

What I thought was interesting was that Lakshman said the long leading index is showing some softness in 2008. I hope he can comment more about that here. He didn't say how significant of a slowdown they see during the interview.

-- posted by DrToast

» Jas_Jain - Achuthan of ECRI Doesn't Sees Recession from Subprime Fallout

In response to Achuthan of ECRI Doesn't Sees Recession from Subprime Fallout posted by DrToast:

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"He [Lakshman] didn't say how significant of a slowdown they see during the interview."

Not enough to cause a recession if I understood correctly everything that has been said recently. At least, no recession until the end of 2008Q1 (7 months from now). This means that the stock market would be in good shape over the 2-3 months.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» Zmrkt - Achuthan of ECRI Doesn't Sees Recession from Subprime Fallout

In response to Achuthan of ECRI Doesn't Sees Recession from Subprime Fallout posted by Jas_Jain:

As per the sub-prime issues me thinks that they are looking at the symptom and not the problem as they say. The problem is the consumer who has too much debt and can no longer afford their homes and thus the rise in foreclosures and the devaluation of the debt. Greenspan said 1/3 chance of recession this year, I bet he was thinking and another 1/3 next yr. If my memory serves me he was one of the architects of the fed funds model that was showing a greater than 50% prob of recession at the time he made the announcement. My op, the US is already in recession in that this will be the first Q of neg GDP growth, but the Fed nontheless can push off the "big one" in terms of a full blown recession, (by once again taking the Fed funds rate to fractional levels), but the greater the liquidity bubble, the more explosive when she blows...Good luck with your investing and be careful out there...

-- posted by Zmrkt

» Jas_Jain - Re:Achuthan of ECRI Doesn't Sees Recession from Subprime Fallou

In response to Achuthan of ECRI Doesn't Sees Recession from Subprime Fallout posted by Zmrkt:

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"My op, the US is already in recession in that this will be the first Q of neg GDP growth, but the Fed nontheless can push off the "big one" in terms of a full blown recession, (by once again taking the Fed funds rate to fractional levels), but the greater the liquidity bubble, the more explosive when she blows...Good luck with your investing and be careful out there..."

No recession for at least 6-8 months AFTER economists at ECRI forecast the next recession.

No need to worry about Z mrkt as long as the WLI growth rate is positive. All signals clear for the foreseeable future.

How could a recession happen unless it shows up in the leading indicators? Some of us who have been forecasting a recession would just have to wait for the ECRI's forecast. We all must learn from our mistakes. One thing is for sure, the next recession would be a whopper, a whopper with three meat and quadruple cheese, thanks to the mountain of debt. Messy as hell and just what an obese population needs.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain