Investment

» ECRI - USFIG Down

NEW YORK, June 1 (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures fell
in May close to a two-year low due mainly to disinflationary
moves in measures of interest rates and loans, marginally
offset by an inflationary move in a measure of vendor
performance, a report said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future
Inflation Gauge (FIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings
in the rate of inflation, fell to 118.2 in May from 118.7 in
April, revised upward from 116.6. The previous low was at 117.5
in June 2005.

"With the U.S. FIG in a sustained cyclical downtrend, U.S.
inflation is not a serious concern at this time," said Lakshman
Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out
monthly fluctuations, dropped to minus 3.8 percent in May from
minus 3.4 percent in April, revised from negative 5.7.

-- posted by ECRI

» ECRI - WLI Flat

NEW YORK, June 1 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth was flat in the latest week, with its growth rate slipping but still near a three-year high, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) held at 142.4 in the week ended May 25 from the prior week, as higher interest rates and jobless claims were offset by higher stock prices.

The annualized growth rate in the weekly index edged down to 6.3 percent from 6.4 percent the previous week.

"With WLI growth holding near a three-year high, the U.S. economic growth outlook remains positive," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at the institute.

-- posted by ECRI

» SteveT - Gauge of U.S. economy higher in latest week - ECRI

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http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinv...

NEW YORK, June 8 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth ticked up in the latest week, with its growth rate steady and near a recent three-year high, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) was at 142.9 in the week ended June 1, up from 142.5 in the prior week, as lower jobless claims, higher commodity prices and stronger housing activity were partly offset by higher interest rates.

The index's annualized growth rate was unchanged at 6.3 percent, just below a three-year high of 6.4 percent recorded the week of May 18.

"With WLI growth holding near three-year highs, the U.S. economic growth is very likely to firm in coming months," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.
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-- posted by SteveT

» allancoleman - "Kirk's COFFEE Indicator" says Fed lowers next

In response to "Kirk's COFFEE Indicator" says Fed lowers next posted by Kirk:

For whatever it's worth , Capt. , I agree with your analysis that the Fed's next move will probably be to lower rates . However , I don't see that until year's end and probably sometime next year of 2008 . It depends on our economy growth rate for the next several months and as you've correctly already stated , inflation trend is down at this moment .

I don't see my buying opportunity in GNMAs lasting much longer than six months and more probably three months and it will probably disappear sometime next year and won't return for three to five more years . I suspect Vanguard GNMA navs will be closer to $10.35 this time next year . Just my guess , of course .

And , also , for whatever it's worth , Bob Brinker's presently bullish model takes into account a Fed funds rate range of 5.50% ( allowing for at least a one quarter point rate hike ) and 4.5% ( which is at least three quarter point rate decreases ) .

-- posted by allancoleman

» SteveT - U.S. leading index growth rate at 3-year high -ECRI

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NEW YORK, June 15 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, with its growth rate reaching a fresh three-year high, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index, or WLI, was at 143.8 in the week ended June 8, up from a revised 143.2 in the previous week, helped by stronger housing activity and lower bond market risk spreads.

The WLI annualized growth rate reached 6.9 percent, the highest since May 14, 2004, when it was 7.2 percent.

"With WLI growth at its highest reading in over three years, U.S. economic growth is bound to pick up in the months ahead," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

Growth in the index was offset in part by higher interest rates and lower stock prices, Achuthan said.
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-- posted by SteveT

» SteveT - Gauge of U.S. economy inched down in latest week - ECRI

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NEW YORK, June 22 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth ticked down in the latest week, with its growth rate steady at a more than three-year high, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index, or WLI, was at 142.9 in the week ended June 15, versus a downwardly revised 143.7 in the prior week. It cited slower housing activity, higher interest rates and lower stock prices.

The index's annualized growth rate was unchanged at 6.7 percent, although the previous week's number was revised down from 6.9 percent.

"Notwithstanding sporadic concerns about the economy, WLI growth is holding at a 37-month high," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI. "Thus, U.S. economic growth is poised to firm in the months ahead."

The index level and growth rate can move in different directions, because growth is derived from a four-week moving average.
http://www.reuters.com/article/companyNe...
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-- posted by SteveT

» Jas_Jain - Always Wrong Jas Jain Dirties Another fine Forum

Post deleted by moderator.
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Name calling is not allowed here.
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Jas Jain has been wrong about the economy, interest rates, housing and the stock market since day one. I have never met anyone who has been more wrong that Jas Jain yet he insists the whole world is wrong and he will eventually be vindicated.
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He can't help himself by posting insults in forums of people who are respected for being right.
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We will have none of it here.
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If ANYONE is considering paying Jas Jain to manage their money.... I'd advise caution (along with a mental health check-up!)

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» permabear - Re: Always Wrong Jas Jain Dirties Another fine Forum

In response to Re: Always Wrong Jas Jain Dirties Another fine Forum posted by Jas_Jain:

I second Jas' opinions on ECRI's views of housing and I've been pointing out the same on this board. Unfortunately Jas does not always present his views in a gentlemanly fashion. We've all pointed this out to Jas for years.

I do give ECRI credit for their calls on the stronger economy in the second quarter. All the numbers back up their view that the economy was going to pick up in the second quarter. The question is whether this economic rebound is a temporary rebound in inventory creation or whether it will be a lasting rebound. But as for housing, it's getting worse by the day, week, month, year. The problems with the Bear Sterns hedge fund may be the tip of the iceberg of the effect the housing and credit crunch may have on the economy going forward.

-- posted by permabear

» permabear - Re: Housing, Inflation and ECRI Indicators

In response to Re: Housing, Inflation and ECRI Indicators posted by Kirk:

Housing is a bifurcated market.
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In many cases, the low cost stuff that was built to sell to people who could not get credit without silly loans that made no sense is crashing because nobody wants to buy those homes who can afford to live in better places.
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Homes in nice places are going up.

Kirk,

Up to the present moment in time you are right. The subprime mess has clearly affected the lower end of the housing market than the higher end. And admittedly the economy remains strong with unemployment holding in the mid 4 to 5 percent range. But Bears such as myself believe that the housing market is only in the first innings of its crash. Prices were bid up to unsustainable levels at all ranges of the housing price scale due to all the crazy lending that was going on. If you think that interest only, option ARM loans were only limited to the subprime market, you've been living in a cave the past couple years. Ask just about anyone, even in places like the Bay Area, what kinds of loans they used to purchase their inflated priced homes, and the answer you will hear more often than not is interest only ARMs. These loans are going to be resetting for the next several years to come. With interest rates higher than they were before, it just puts that much more stress on these home buyers and these loan refinancers. As these loans reset, the pain will spread from subprime to Alt A to Prime. It's only a matter of time.

What you bears seem to miss... if the housing problem spreads to the rest of the economy, the Fed could lower rates to 1.0% again if they had to and that would allow people to refinance their homes...

The dollar index is already trading at multi decade lows. What is going to happen to the dollar if the Fed starts lowering rates? If the Chinese and Saudis and even British start seeing their dollar denominated bond values going into the tank due to a declining dollar, what is going to happen to the bond market and interest rates? The Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place. As for inflation, from what I've read, money supply levels all over the world have been rising at a very high rate. In this globalist world we live in, I don't think that we will see the end of inflation if the Chinese, Indians and even Europeans are seeing such an explosion in money supply growth.

-- posted by permabear

» permabear - Housing and credit just gets worse and worse and worse..........

Inventory of homes for sale hits 15-year high

Existing-home sales off 0.3%; 5.99 million annualized rate's a four-year low

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:55 PM ET Jun 25, 2007

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The inventory of previously owned homes up for sale in May rose to the highest level in relation to sales in 15 years, a real-estate trade group said Monday, putting even more houses into an already glutted market.
Sales of existing homes fell 0.3% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.99 million, down from the upwardly revised 6.01 million in April, the National Association of Realtors reported.

Sales were down 10.3% compared with a year earlier and were off about 17% from the peak. 'We still seem to be in the sellers' denial phase of the market and we haven't even hit the buyers' denial portion, when people don't realize that prices are no longer dropping.' - Joel Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisers
Still, May's sales were stronger than the 5.90 million pace that economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been expecting. See Economic Calendar.

Inventories of homes on the market rose by 5% to a record 4.43 million, representing an 8.9-month supply at the May sales pace. That's the biggest overhang of inventory since June 1992, at the tail end of the last housing bust.

The inventory figure compared with 8.4 months in April and 7.4 months in March.

Home builders have their own inventories of unsold homes to contend with. An exchange-traded fund tracking the homebuilders fell about 1.8% on Monday. See full story on the builders.

High levels of inventories should keep prices flat or falling in coming months.

"The current level is approximately 2 million units above normal, a figure that glaringly illustrates the housing market's biggest problem," wrote Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist for Miller Tabak & Co.

"The only way we're going to chip away at this Mount Everest-sized pile of inventory is by price cuts, and so far, sellers haven't been aggressive enough," wrote financial analyst Mike Larson on his blog. Read more.

Many prospective buyers are reluctant to borrow money to buy an asset that's depreciating in value.

"We still seem to be in the sellers' denial phase of the market and we haven't even hit the buyers' denial portion, when people don't realize that prices are no longer dropping," wrote Joel Naroff, chief economist for Naroff Economic Advisers. "This market has a very long way to go before we will be able to characterize it as solid." Listen to an interview with Naroff.

The median price of a home sold was $223,700, down 2.1% compared with May 2006. It's the 10th straight month of declining year-over-year median prices.

-- posted by permabear