Investment

» Jas_Jain - Housing Bottom?

In response to Housing Bottom? posted by Kirk:
--
"Did I hear you correctly call a housing bottom on the show?
Some of the permabears on this site are going to have issues with that!"

Another housing has bottomed caller? LOL!

Next three months are going to a riot (as in fun). I can't wait to see Lakshman dancing around his past calls. Didn't he hear TOLL calling the Spring selling season "A BUST?" And the Spring has barely begun.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» ECRI - WLI - Mortgage applications

In response to WLI - Mortgage applications posted by allancoleman:

Thanks -- I'll try to give a head's up here whenever possible about any upcoming interviews. We also now have an RSS feed which basically alerts you (on your personal homepage) of any events that we're posting on our website www.businesscycle.com.

My comment on higher U.S. long rates later this year is primarily based on the notion that economic growth is likely to be stronger than expected. This view is somewhat supported by the fact the the FIG has not fallen as much as in past inflation cycle downturns, although for the time being the FIG is still pointing down.

-- posted by ECRI

» ECRI - Housing Bottom?

In response to Housing Bottom? posted by Kirk:

Yes, we are forecasting a cyclical trough in the home price cycle nationally. This is based on a pronounced, pervasive and persistent rise in the LHPI.

Greenspan said on Thursday, "If we could wave a wand and prices go up 10 percent, the subprime mortgage problem would disappear."

Well, I don't know about the 10%, but the LHPI has now risen 5 straight months -- meaning it foresees a home price upturn this year.

Less reported, was a Greenspan comment on March 7 that the Home Price Downturn may have bottomed.

-- posted by ECRI

» ECRI - Housing Bottom?

In response to Housing Bottom? posted by Jas_Jain:

Hi Jas,

I hope all is well with you.

One clarification, on your recent post. I get the sense that you interpret our statements as a home price upturn in the next three months. We do not profess to have such precision in forecasting. It may in fact be that when the dust settles the absolute bottom in home prices has already occurred. Nevertheless, our view is the the decline in home prices will not spiral out of control and fall off of a cliff. Accordingly, the cyclical decline in national home prices should end and be followed by a home price upturn this year. As we've discussed before, the primary value of ECRI's approach is on recognizing the cyclical turns, with the following magnitude of the move a secondary aspect of the forecast. At this point we're not as clear on how strong the upturn in home prices will be.

-- posted by ECRI

» ECRI - WLI Ticks Up

NEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth was up in the latest week on lower jobless claims, stronger housing activity and higher stock prices, with its annualized rate of growth at a five-week high, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index inched up to 140.3 in the week ending March 9 from 140.2 in the prior week.
Annualized growth rate rose to 3.7 percent from an upwardly revised 3.3 percent in the previous period.

"After easing for five weeks, WLI growth has bounced back to a five-week high, which is well above last summer's lows," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI. "The WLI's recent performance belies current recession fears."

The rise in the index was partly offset by lower commodity prices, Achuthan said.

-- posted by ECRI

» permabear - WLI Ticks Up

In response to WLI Ticks Up posted by ECRI:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/

Nouriel Roubini, who also is a regular guest on Larry Kudlow's show, presents a very strong bearish case on his blog, and to this point has been more right than the bulls when it comes to the housing and credit markets.

-- posted by permabear

» DrToast - WLI Ticks Up

In response to WLI Ticks Up posted by permabear:

Roubini, huh? Isn't that the guy who predicted 0% growth in Q4 of 2006 and a recession in Q1 of 2007? Oops.

-- posted by DrToast

» Bill_Duffy - WLI Ticks Up

In response to WLI Ticks Up posted by DrToast:

One thing I love about investing is that at any time you can find "experts" who are either extremely bullish or all doom and gloom bearish. That forces you to think for yourself.

As for the current gloom in housing, I took a ride through my neighbor hood in Colorado Springs this week and noticed that no homes are for sale. I did see several that were getting upgrades such as new windows or decks. Unemployment here is about 4.5%

I don't see any signs of recession.

Yet!

-- posted by Bill_Duffy

» runner26 - WLI Ticks Up

In response to WLI Ticks Up posted by Bill_Duffy:

Take a ride in my neighborhood in Central CA. Signs everywhere, little moving, prices falling!

-- posted by runner26

» permabear - WLI Ticks Up

In response to WLI Ticks Up posted by DrToast:

It's better to be early on a call than to get it wrong altogether. For example those folks who fled tech stocks in 1999 weren't crying crocodile tears about missing a few more percentage points before the route. Roubini has been concerned about the housing and subprime market long before the mass media raised any eyebrows. Beyond housing, manufacturing is weak, consumer sentiment is declining, energy prices have ticked up, inflation remains hotter than the Fed wants it to be, the Yen carry trade is no longer a massive source of liquidity. It all adds up to a nasty economy on the horizon.

-- posted by permabear