Investment

» Jas_Jain - Drop, Just As Advertised -- An Easy Prediction -- WLI Will Fall

In response to An Easy Prediction -- WLI Will Fall posted by Jas_Jain:

--

15-Dec-06 139.7 3.4
22-Dec-06 138.4 3.8

I don't know if there was a revision to the last week's data.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

» ECRI - WLI edges down

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinv...

Gauge of U.S. economy falls in latest week - ECRI
Fri Dec 29, 2006 10:35 AM ET

NEW YORK, Dec 29 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week, while annualized growth hit a 44-week high, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 138.5 in the week ending Dec. 22 from 139.7 in the prior week, due to higher interest rates and more jobless claims.

However, annualized growth in the week ended Dec. 22 rose to 3.8 percent from 3.4 percent in the prior period, a reading not reached since last February.

"Given the steady improvement in the WLI, recession is no longer a serious concern," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The decrease in the overall index was partly offset by higher stock prices, Achuthan said.

Occasionally the index and the growth rate can move in different directions because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.

-- posted by ECRI

» ECRI - Bloomberg TV Interview

Here is a link to an interview this morning at 7:40am (ET) http://www.businesscycle.com/news/1095/

-- posted by ECRI

» SteveT - U.S. inflation pressures fell in December - ECRI

.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinv...
Fri Jan 5, 2007 9:40 AM ET
NEW YORK, Jan 5 (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures fell in December to their lowest since June 2005, due mainly to disinflationary moves in measures of home loans and interest rates, a report said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, which is designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, fell to 119.6 in December from 120.0 in November, which was revised up from 119.4.
"The USFIG remains in a cyclical downswing. In fact, U.S. inflation pressures have declined significantly since the fall of 2005," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.
Achuthan said recent employment figures, which might be represented as somewhat inflationary, are taken into account for the USFIG, but still inflation pressures continue to head down.
"Recession is no longer a serious concern," Achuthan added.
The index's annualized growth rate, which smoothes out monthly fluctuations, dropped to minus 2.8 percent from an upwardly revised minus 2.5 percent in November.
.

-- posted by SteveT

» SteveT - Gauge of U.S. economy higher in latest week - ECRI

.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinv...

Fri Jan 5, 2007 10:30 AM ET

NEW YORK, Jan 5 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth was higher in the latest week on the back of stronger housing activity and higher stock prices, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged up to 139.0 in the week ending Dec. 29 from 138.5 in the prior week.

Annualized growth rate was down to 3.7 percent from 3.8 percent in the previous period.

"Despite its slight dip, WLI growth remains near a 44-week high, affirming that us economic growth prospects have improved since the summer," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The increase in the overall index was partly offset by higher jobless claims and interest rates, Achuthan said.

Occasionally the index and the growth rate can move in different directions because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.
.

-- posted by SteveT

» SteveT - Gauge of U.S. economy higher in latest week - ECRI

.
Fri Jan 12, 2007 10:30 AM ET

NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth was higher in the latest week on stronger housing activity and lower interest rates, with its growth index at a 47-week high, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index jumped to 141.8 in the week ending Jan. 5 from an upwardly revised 139.2 in the prior week.

Annualized growth rate rose to 4.0 percent from 3.7 percent in the previous period.

"The rise in WLI growth to a 47-week high suggests that the U.S. economic growth outlook has been improving slowly but steadily," said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI.

The increase in the overall index was partly offset by higher jobless claims and interest rates, Achuthan said.
.

-- posted by SteveT

» ECRI - WLI Slips, Growth Rate Up

NEW YORK, Jan 19 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth was down in the latest week on lower commodity prices and higher interest rates, but its growth index hit a 49-week high, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 140.8 in the week ending Jan. 12 from a downwardly revised 141.7 in the prior week.

Annualized growth rate was up to 4.4 percent from an upwardly revised 4.1 percent in the previous period.

"With WLI growth climbing to a 49-week high, the U.S. economic growth outlook looks increasingly positive," said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI.

The drop in the WLI level was offset by lower jobless claims, Hubman said.

Occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.

-- posted by ECRI

» ECRI - WLI slips, GR up

Gauge of U.S. economy lower in latest week - ECRI

Fri Jan 26, 2007 10:30 AM ET

NEW YORK, Jan 26 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth was lower in the latest week on the back of higher interest rates, and its growth index reached a 50-week high, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 139.2 in the week ending Jan. 19 from 140.8 in the prior week.

Annualized growth rate was up to 4.5 percent from 4.4 percent in the previous period.

"WLI growth has climbed steadily since the summer and is now at a 50-week high, thus the U.S. economic growth outlook continues to improve," said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI.

The drop in the index was offset by higher stocks and commodity prices, Hubman said.

Occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinv...

-- posted by ECRI

» ECRI - ECRI Books

Hi Kirk,

Thanks for listing the book. We have a few more, but they get a bit technical. I'll send links when I get back to NYC (I'm in Miami for a pre Super Bowl cycle presentation). Since I'm here with guys from Chicago, and I like underdogs, I'm rooting for the Bears...

Lak

-- posted by ECRI

» SteveT - Gauge of U.S. economy higher in latest week - ECRI

.
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinv...

NEW YORK, Feb 2 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth edged up in the latest week on strength in the housing market and higher stock prices, with its growth index at a 51-week high, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 140.2 in the week ending Jan. 26 from 139.2 in the prior week.

The annualized growth rate was up to 4.7 percent from 4.5 percent in the previous period.

"The steady advance in WLI growth since last summer underscores the improbability of a recession this year," said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI. "Notably, this uptrend was already in place two months ago, when there were wide-spread expectations of economic weakness and multiple Fed rate cuts."

The rise in the WLI was partially offset by higher interest rates, Hubman said.

-- posted by SteveT