Investment
Elaine Garzarelli,
- SteveT
- coryunhski
- allancoleman
- tjg911
- SteveT
- noggin
- SteveT
» SteveT - Market Monitor NBR March 03, 2006
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------As of 7/4/06 the Total Return for "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" since 12/31/98 is Up 211% while the S&P500 only up 16%!!! & NASDAQ down 0.1 & Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway up 30% = for 2006, my newsletter portfolio is up 5.6 YTD vs. QQQQ down 3.6% YTD.
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Market Monitor -Elaine Garzarelli, President of Garzarelli Capital
Friday, March 03, 2006
PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Elaine Garzarelli, president of Garzarelli Capital and welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Elaine.
ELAINE GARZARELLI, PRESIDENT, GARZARELLI CAPITAL: Nice to be here, thanks.
KANGAS: Does the recent pickup in stock market volatility suggest we`re in for a major change in direction in this market?
GARZARELLI: Well, I think we`re in a major bull market that -- cyclical bull market that started three and a half years ago and it`s likely to continue as far as I`m concerned until my indicators turn negative and they`re still bullish. And I think the reason is that corporate profits, as a share of GDP, are at an all-time high. Even if they slow down a little bit, the margins are still going to be very high compared to this stage of the business cycle.
KANGAS: So you don`t believe we`re in a short-term bull market and a long-term bear market? You believe it`s (INAUDIBLE) all the way.
GARZARELLI: Absolutely. I think we`re in a secular bull market and a cyclical bull market. And I think the Dow and the S&P 500 the next six to 12 months will reach new all time highs. Now seven indices already have, including the Amex, the small stocks.
KANGAS: So your question is how can we be in a secular bear market with all these index hitting new highs?
GARZARELLI: Exactly, not the NASDAQ but the S&P and the Dow. The Dow`s only 6 percent away from an all-time high.
KANGAS: And a new one this year right?
GARZARELLI: That`s right. I think so.
KANGAS: So your 14 market indicators probably are fairly bullish, are they not?
GARZARELLI: They are. They`re still bullish. They`re at 46 percent, higher than they were six months ago. I think the Fed is near an ending, maybe another two, possibly three hikes, but they`re closer to the end than the beginning and that`s always bullish for stocks three to six months before they stop. The economy looks fabulous as far as I`m concerned. It`s likely to slow but that`s what we want.
KANGAS: Fair enough. The question is now what do you think of the new Fed chief Mr. Bernanke?
GARZARELLI: I love him. I think he`s a prince.
KANGAS: And Greenspan was a good friend of yours, wasn`t he?
GARZARELLI: He was great. Yes. We went to school together. And Bernanke actually got almost a perfect score on his college boards. Can you imagine? He`s not just genius, he`s a super genius. He`s fabulous, I love him.
KANGAS: All right, fair enough, so you`re very bullish on the economy and corporate profits. Now I want to go back and ask you about the five recommendations. You were here late September. You gave us five recommendations. Let`s see how they fared, up 3 percent on Energy Select spider, the Technology Select sector spider up 3 percent on energy select, the technology select sector spied up 7 percent. You`re batting a thousand so far. Let`s have a look at some of the others you recommended back then. Caterpillar up 26.6 percent. That`s a winner. And Carolina Group, that`s the Lowe`s tobacco company up over 30 percent. You`re really doing well here. How about the fifth one? We had one more that you recommended. Eastman Chemical and that`s up 7.4 percent. One thousand percent batting. That`s a great record Elaine. Congratulations.
GARZARELLI: Thanks.
KANGAS: Now, do you have some new recommendations?
GARZARELLI: I do. I think the strongest area of the economy this year will be capital spending and that should actually last through late 2007. And so I like the XLI. It`s an exchange traded fund and that`s for the industrial sector in the economy and that`s where the strength will be.
KANGAS: All right, moving right along.
GARZARELLI: The next one would be Motorola. There we`ve got China spending billions on wireless network for the Olympics in `08. Motorola is going to be a benefactor there. The stock`s down 60 percent from it all time high.
KANGAS: OK. We have a minute left for one or two more, perhaps.
GARZARELLI: OK. Another one is Oracle, down 70 percent from its all time high. Earnings growth at 20 percent, software company. And the last one is Dupont which hasn`t done anything.
KANGAS: An old industrial. There we go.
GARZARELLI: Excellent, excellent value at a 3.6 percent dividend yield and down 50 percent from its all-time high. I think they should all outperform the S&P over the next six to 12 months.
KANGAS: Do you personally own any of these securities you`ve mentioned?
GARZARELLI: I think I own all of them.
KANGAS: OK. Fair enough.
GARZARELLI: I`m sure I do.
KANGAS: All right. Excellent, so you are really very bullish. New high on the Dow this year and the NASDAQ will keep pace with the Dow, do you think there? Not a new high but...
GARZARELLI: Yeah, I think the NASDAQ will outperform the S&P and the S&P should hit a new high because the financials, when the Fed stops tightening, will move quite nicely.
KANGAS: Got to run, Elaine but thanks for sharing your expertise with us once again.
GARZARELLI: My pleasure, thank you.
-- posted by SteveT
» coryunhski - Elaine G.
Has anyone subscribed to her service? Has it been a good investment?Cory
-- posted by coryunhski
» allancoleman - Elaine's web site
out of respect for all those who stick their necks out to make market calls , even if they are wrong , here is Garzarelli's offical web site :looks like she has a newsletter and offers a freebie too . enjoy
-- posted by allancoleman
» tjg911 - Market Monitor NBR March 03, 2006
In response to Market Monitor NBR March 03, 2006 posted by SteveT:Thanks that was an interesting interview. Now if the S&P 500 hits a new high this year that's 1529 if I remember correctly. WHEW!
Tom
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As of 7/4/06 the Total Return for "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" since 12/31/98 is Up 211% while the S&P500 only up 16%!!! & NASDAQ down 0.1 & Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway up 30% = for 2006, my newsletter portfolio is up 5.6 YTD vs. QQQQ down 3.6% YTD.
Click To Get On My FREE STUFF Mailing List. Get a free sample of my newsletter, notification of new articles, updates on I Bonds, free Fixed Income and other charts PLUS much more.
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-- posted by tjg911
» noggin - 2007 Year-End Targets - CNBC 12/29/06 Update:
In response to 2007 Year-End Targets - CNBC 12/29/06 Update: posted by Kirk:
Kirk, Thank you for the update on "The GARZ". Her forecast for 2006 was DJIA 14150.
-- posted by noggin
» SteveT - Market Monitor
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"Market Monitor"-Elaine Garzarelli, President of Garzarelli Capital
Friday, April 20, 2007
PAUL KANGAS: My guest "market monitor" this week is Elaine Garzarelli, president of Garzarelli Capital and welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Elaine.
ELAINE GARZARELLI, PRESIDENT, GARZARELLI CAPITAL: Nice to be here Paul.
KANGAS: During our last several visits, you've been decidedly bullish on the U.S. stock market and given these recent new highs, including today, correctly so. You told us the U.S. economy had rarely been in such good shape as in recent times. Any change in your position? Is the stock market getting ahead of reality?
GARZARELLI: No, no. Actually, the stock market is catching up to where it should have been last year and we think it has a lot further to go.
KANGAS: Where do your widely followed 14 marker indicators standard now?
GARZARELLI: Well, a bullish reading at 65 and they're at 67 percent; 30 percent would be a major sell signal and 42 percent would be a correction greater than 4 to 7 percent.
KANGAS: You're still quite bullish?
GARZARELLI: Definitely, best economy I've ever seen.
KANGAS: When you were here last in October, you said the housing slump was basically over, but it has gotten a bit worse hasn't it and has it bottomed finally?
GARZARELLI: Well, the mortgage rates are down, 30-year mortgage rates down 100 basis points and I think housing now is flattening out and it should start to turn up later this year in 2008, modestly.
KANGAS: How about oil prices?
GARZARELLI: Oil prices would be bearish from my indicators if they went to $100 a barrel or if the 10-year bond yield currently is 4.7 percent and went up another 300 basis points.
KANGAS: You took away from question. I was going to ask you what would turn you bearish, and apparently that's it. GARZARELLI: Yes.
KANGAS: Now in that visit in October, you recommended four stocks. Let's see how they've done since then. We see Dow Chemical, up 16.1 percent, good call, Intel even moved up 7.4 percent. So you're ahead of the game there. There were two others, Hovnanian, the home builder down 15 percent, that is understandable. Are you still with it?
GARZARELLI: Hovnanian we sold at the end of December for a 25 percent gain. Now you're getting close to a point where you might want to buy it back.
KANGAS: And Altria Group indicates an 11.5 percent loss, but that doesn't take into account the spin off of Kraft, which would put you in a profitable position correct.
GARZARELLI: It would be up 17 percent and I think what we're recommending now is to keep Phillip Morris and sell Kraft because Kraft is overvalued we believe.
KANGAS: OK. That's clear enough. How about some new recommendations, Elaine?
GARZARELLI: I've got some. Now I think the strongest areas in the economy will be capital spending, exports and I think the dollar will continue weak. So the first stock I like is Caterpillar tractor, 50 percent foreign sales. I also like in the capital spending area --
KANGAS: Wait a minute. Let's get the next one up on the chart here. Caterpillar just had a good day today, too. OK, now we see the I-shares of Goldman Sachs in the semiconductor industry.
GARZARELLI: Right, 80 percent of sales are foreign and that includes Texas Instruments, Motorola and Intel, plus some other semiconductor stocks as well.
KANGAS: This is an exchange traded fund, ETF?
GARZARELLI: This is an exchange traded fund right and you can buy and sell it all day long. The next one is Pharmacy Holders and that's also an exchange traded fund.
KANGAS: It's had a sharp rise recently. You're not afraid of that recent -- GARZARELLI: No, because it is down 27 percent from its all-time high in '01. So it is still an excellent, excellent value and also would be a beneficiary of a weakening dollar.
KANGAS: That's your theme here, a weakening dollar is good for exporters.
GARZARELLI: It is. People are worried about a weakening dollar. I like it. Just don't crash. Just be weak.
KANGAS: Do we have another one?
GARZARELLI: Moderately weak. And the last one would be Lehman Brothers and I'm very familiar with that particular stock. And it is down 10 percent just recently. And it is definitely lean and mean and one of the best banking companies.
KANGAS: OK.
GARZARELLI: So with a bullish stock market outlook, the brokerage stocks should be wonderful, wonderful performers.
KANGAS: Do you personally own any of these stocks?
GARZARELLI: I own them all.
KANGAS: KANGAS: And the ETFs included?
GARZARELLI: Yes.
KANGAS: Elaine, I want to thank you for being with us once again.
GARZARELLI: My pleasure on such a nice day.
KANGAS: You like that 153 point gain.
GARZARELLI: I love it have a good weekend. It will make everybody happy.
KANGAS: Thanks Elaine, my guest, Elaine Garzarelli of Garzarelli Capital.
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-- posted by SteveT
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