Investment

Top

11. Jun 6, 2006 7:29 AM

» Jas_Jain - Indian Scam Market and E-CON-omy

June 06,2006

Indian Scam Market and E-CON-omy

Date Close
10-May-06 12,612.38
11-May-06 12,435.41
12-May-06 12,285.11
15-May-06 11,822.20
16-May-06 11,873.73
17-May-06 12,217.81
18-May-06 11,391.43
19-May-06 10,938.61
22-May-06 10,481.77
23-May-06 10,822.78
24-May-06 10,573.15
25-May-06 10,666.32
26-May-06 10,809.35
29-May-06 10,853.14
30-May-06 10,786.63
31-May-06 10,398.61
1-Jun-06 10,071.42
2-Jun-06 10,451.33
5-Jun-06 10,213.48
6-Jun-06 9,957.32 -21.1%

There is a high probability that the index will go BELOW 1,000 over the next four years.

I have no idea what motivates anyone to invest in the Indian Scam Market for the past year or so, but one thing is absolutely clear that these people have no understanding of the 1920s and 1930s in America and what really caused the Great Depression.

Indian economic elite are a BAD COPY of American economic elite. Indian Bankrupters, aka bankers, are worse than American Bankrupters and Indian Fraudsters, aka financiers, are worse than American Fraudsters.

No sane person has any business being in the Indian Scam Market.

Jas

PS: Is it a mere coincidence that the two largest democracies have the most corrupt leadership? The most duped population? And the economies in borrow-and-spend Debt Spiral?

-- posted by Jas_Jain

Top

12. Jul 29, 2006 4:11 AM

» SteveT - India Rises Out of Emerging-Market Gloom

Friday, July 28, 2006

Citigroup Global Wealth Management

MAY'S MELTDOWN IN EMERGING MARKETS meted out the same severe punishment to a wide swath of countries. Turkey, Iceland, South Africa and India, all of which have current-account deficits, were among the hardest-hit markets.

While this correction reflected a more appropriate level of risk assessment of emerging markets in a higher global interest-rate environment, in my estimation India was unfairly chastised in this frenzied selloff. Before the May pullback, many investors had amber lights flashing for India, given its current-account deficit and dependence on portfolio flows.

So it's little wonder that Indian equity markets suffered a 25% drubbing from the peaks in May.

However, a closer examination of India's fundamentals reveals that investors were perhaps a bit hasty in their actions. Indeed, I see a number of factors that should keep India first among equals.

First, let's address the current-account deficit: Most of the countries that bore the brunt of the emerging-markets selloff have had weak current accounts. The current-account deficit of Turkey stands at $23 billion, or 6.3% of gross domestic product; South Africa's is 4.2% of GDP; while Iceland's is an alarming 16% of GDP.

All of these deficits are far higher than India's deficit, which is a mere 1.3% of GDP. What's more, India's current-account deficit largely owes to imports of capital goods and industrial inputs used to expand capacity and aid growth. This is positive in my view, considering India has moved onto a higher growth trajectory.

Moreover, capital flows have been more than sufficient to finance the deficit, and even in the worst-case scenario, the drawdown on reserves would be a maximum $14 billion, which amounts to less than 10% of the total.

High debt ratios have dogged emerging-market economies, but here, too, India appears better-positioned. External debt accounts for more than 50% of Turkey's GDP and close to 30% of Russia's and Brazil's, leaving these economies overly reliant on foreign financing.

While the level of external debt in India is high at $119 billion, debt indicators have been improving, with external debt as a percentage of GDP at 16%. Encouragingly, low interest rates and long maturity profiles attend 35% of the debt.

Though India's government-debt ratio remains high at 75% of GDP (similar to Turkey's at 71% but higher than Brazil's at 50%), a key differentiator is that all of it is domestically financed.

There's also the matter of inflationary pressure. An important reason behind the sharp selloff in several countries is that monetary authorities failed to adequately respond to mounting price pressures in time.

An example of this is Turkey, where 10% inflation (compared with a 5% year-end target) prompted a policy-rate increase of 600 basis points between May and June. Investors feared rightly that such a sharp rate hike could hamper growth.

Meanwhile, monetary authorities in India began tightening rates as early as 2004. As a result, higher rates have been priced into the market. At less than 5% currently, inflation could average 5.3% in fiscal 2007, though it will likely reach 6% by year's end.

Given that Indian consumers and companies are still underleveraged and that real interest rates are relatively benign, a further increase of 50 to 100 basis points should not derail growth. I expect policy rates to move by at least 25 points, while market rates could move 50 to 100 points.

Simply put, India passes my macro-level "health check." I think that the composition of India's current-account deficit, favorable debt ratios, foreign-exchange reserves and proactive management of monetary policy should make India more resilient than other emerging markets.

Plus, India's growth story appears fundamentally strong, led by an investment upturn, positive income and age demographics, and a high savings rate.

The latest flood of funds into the emerging markets lifted all boats equally. And as the flood receded, all markets were treated equally harshly. But when considering an allocation to an asset class with many distinct avenues, it is important not to project the characteristics of a few onto the whole.

So while India may have been swept up in the emerging markets' rise and fall, I feel that India's solid fundamentals set it apart from the crowd.

-- Rohini Malkani

The opinions contained in Investors' Soapbox in no way represent those of Barron's Online or Dow Jones & Company, Inc. The opinions expressed are those of the newsletter's writer(s).

To be considered for this feature, please send material to Soapbox@barrons.com

Comments? E-mail us at online.editors@barrons.com
URL for this article:
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB1154...

Steve Thompson

-- posted by SteveT

Top

13. Dec 6, 2007 6:27 AM

» Jas_Jain - FWC: Indian market outlook -comments?

"India's biggest bull is on the verge of becoming its biggest bear. Sanjiv Duggal, who manages the world's largest holding of Indian equities, may even urge his clients to cash out."

As I have said before, during the depression of 2008-10 India Goats are going to be slaughtered wholesale. Not to neglect that America Pigs and China Bulls are also slated for wholesale slaughter. The trigger, or the proximate cause, will be the recession in the US that has already begun despite all the propaganda by recession deniers. The recession will slide into depression effortlessly.

The criminal financial "Gangs of New York" have spread to the world, over the past dozen or so years, and outcome is not in doubt.

Jas

-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-

Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) --

India's biggest bull is on the verge of becoming its biggest bear. Sanjiv Duggal, who manages the world's largest holding of Indian equities, may even urge his clients to cash out.
``Investors aren't factoring in earnings and news flows, but valuing people's dreams,' said Duggal, 43, who oversees about $11 billion in Indian equities as investment director at HSBC Holdings Plc's Halbis Capital Management in Singapore. ``The risk-reward ratio is not favorable.'
Indian equities are valued at an average of 23.6 times estimated earnings, compared with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index at 20.2 times and Korea's Kospi index at 14.6 times. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is valued at 15.9 times profit.
Duggal's Luxembourg-based $8.5 billion Indian Equity Fund, which targets overseas investors, has had a total return of 63 percent this year. It is the second-best performance among 15 offshore equity funds with more than $1 billion in assets that invest in India, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
India's Sensitive Index has fallen 2.7 percent since reaching a record of 20,000 on Oct. 29, the day Duggal turned pessimistic. He has not yet told his investors of his change of heart. The Sensex has doubled in less than two years and is Asia's third-best performer in 2007, after China and Bangladesh.
``The market is pricing in a lot of growth for the next two to three years,' Duggal said.
Cashing Out
Power equipment manufacturers, for example, are seeing revenue growth of 25 percent to 30 percent a year and their stock prices assume the rate will continue, he said. But government projections of power generation by the year 2020 imply a growth rate of less than 10 percent.
Duggal said he is considering inviting investors to take some of their money out of the fund and seek better-valued equities elsewhere. He expects Indian stocks to decline over the next 18 months to 24 months.
His fund, on the other hand, has to stay invested in the country, so he is looking for the best bargains.
India Equity is going for ``more of a defensive and value bias and a few selective growth stocks, but I don't want to hold stocks where growth is priced in,' he said.
Duggal's fund holds fewer banks and consumer staple companies than represented in benchmarks, while it's overweight on technology. The Bombay Stock Exchange's 18-stock banking index is valued at 21.7 times future earnings, while the consumer staples index trades at 25.4 times. The technology index has a multiple of 19.9.
Selling Banks
Overall earnings growth will slow to between 10 percent and 15 percent for the next three years to March 31, 2010, Duggal estimates, from about 30 percent in the previous period.
He said his view is also shaped by the rupee's 12 percent gain against the dollar this year. Almost 50 percent of revenue at Indian companies comes from exports, Duggal estimates. The rupee is the second-best performing currency in Asia after the Philippine peso.
Duggal, whose fund holds more of industrial companies Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. of New Delhi and Mumbai-based Larsen & Toubro Ltd. than their representation in its benchmark, said he is cutting back.
The fund has reduced holdings in banks to less than the benchmark, the S&P/IFC Emerging Markets Investable India Index. High interest rates will dent demand for loans and the central bank will lift reserve requirements, Duggal said. Telecommunications and utilities are other industries where the fund is underweight.
`Growth Sector'
By contrast, the fund exceeds its benchmark for technology companies for the first time in three years on the view that revenue growth will boost earnings even if the economy slows.
``Technology is one of the fastest growing and cheapest valued growth sectors in India,' Duggal said. Software stocks are trading at a 20 percent discount to the Sensex, down from a 50 percent premium earlier this year, he said.
His top 10 holdings include Mumbai-based Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., India's largest software developer and Wipro Ltd. of Bangalore, the third biggest.
It also holds more pharmaceuticals, such as Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd. of Mumbai and Hyderabad-based Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd., than represented in its benchmark. The Bombay Stock Exchange's Healthcare Index gained 2.4 percent this year, trailing the Sensex's 42 percent advance.
Safe Haven
Money manager A.S.T. Rajan says he is more optimistic about the Indian market, given the outlook for economic growth in the world's second-most populous nation. Gross domestic product will expand by almost 9 percent in the fiscal year ending in March, Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said Nov. 5. GDP has grown an annual average of 8.6 percent since 2004, the fastest pace since independence in 1947.
``One can't ignore markets like India and China,' said Rajan, who manages $200 million in Indian equities as managing director at Aquarius Investment Advisors in Singapore. ``Given the earnings and economic growth, we are seeing a paradigm shift of funds to safe havens in Asia.'
Rajan likes construction companies and those that rely on domestic demand, such as banks and automakers.
Duggal says he will stick to his bets even if they underperform in the near term. The Indian fund is the best performer over five years among the 15 offshore Indian stock funds managing more than $1 billion that are tracked by Bloomberg, with an annualized return of 57 percent.
This year, the fund, part of HSBC's Global Investment Funds group, has only been beaten in its class by the $1.3 billion PCA India Infrastructure Stock Fund, with a return of 70 percent, according to Bloomberg data. Duggal lags behind the 68 percent return of his benchmark.
`Struggle'
Duggal, who was born in Rugby, England, completed a chartered accountant degree in London in 1988 and began work as an internal auditor at Lloyds TSB Group Plc. Later, he moved to its Hill Samuel unit, switching to portfolio management in 1994.
He joined HSBC's emerging-markets team in London in 1996 and moved to Mumbai in 2002 as chief investment officer to manage Indian equities. In 2006 he moved to Singapore to join Halbis as an investment director.
Duggal put out a ``sell' call on Indian equities in April 2004 prior to general elections in May because his team was of the view the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, which oversaw asset sales, would not win a second term. The benchmark plummeted 11 percent on May 17, 2004, when Sonia Gandhi's Congress party ousted the government and had to form a coalition with communist parties for a parliamentary majority.
Duggal again told investors in April 2006 to sell Indian equities on price. The Sensex plunged 26 percent starting in April that year to a low of 8,929.44 on June 14.
``I have a cautious view on India as it's become increasingly difficult to find value,' says Duggal. ``Markets will struggle to perform over the next year.'

-- posted by Jas_Jain

Top

14. Jan 17, 2008 9:55 AM

» Jas_Jain - The Big Three Slaughterhouses Are Working Round the Clock

--
The Big Three Slaughterhouses Are Working Round the Clock

As I have foreseen, the Slaughter of America Pigs, China Bulls, and India Goats is in full swing now. They will continue operating until 2010.

When the bhejas, or brains, America Pigs and India Goats were examined they were found to be full of bull poop. Imported from China!

Democracy is an ideal form of govt to breed dopes and America and India are the finest example of the success of democracy - huge concentration of wealth in few hands. Amazingly, some India dopes point to it as a success of Indian democracy over Pakistan. The answer is very simple -- the population of India. India's Crooks get to exploit more slaves than Pakistani Crooks. The Chinese govt wouldn't allow this level of concentration of wealth, which bodes well for the Chinese economy, long-term. Over the next few years the Chinese economy will face the depression while American and Indian economies will face the worst.

My target for India Goats is 90% cut. But, the much bigger problem would be violence in places like Mumbai.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

Top

15. Jan 17, 2008 2:12 PM

» Normxxx - China!?!

The Chinese economy will crater, shortly after the U.S. enters its recession.

-- posted by Normxxx

http://www.safehaven.com/article-9248.htm

Top

16. Jan 17, 2008 4:35 PM

» Jas_Jain - Indians Sell Gold - And Their Future

--
More evidence that India Goats are really fattened for the kill. India Goats make America Pigs look moderate and China Bulls snaguine.

Jas
-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-x-

January 17, 2008
Indians Sell Gold - And Their Future
by Alex Wallenwein
Mineweb.com reported today (January 16, 2008) that Indians are selling gold to buy their country's stocks, allegedly because gold is "so expensive" and, in their view, therefore has little upside. On the other hand, they think that Indian penny stocks allow them to make quick 100 percent profits in the span of only one or two months.
Indian investors are about to learn a lesson in bubble psychology.
Apparently, their centuries old tradition of buying and holding gold hasn't allowed them to understand the real value of gold, namely the value of a hedge against all other "hedges" - going wrong!
At least they still have their traditions, while the western world has forgotten its own. Western style propaganda ("don't invest in gold; it's a relic of a bygone era!") has only very recently begun to be applied to India and has now finally taken hold. The Indian financial and political classes have been trying to get poor Indians to open bank accounts, take out loans, and invest in "the future" (meaning worthless paper instruments) for many years.
In the meantime, the Indian stock markets have enjoyed quite a boom. The Bombay Stock Exchange, Asia's oldest stock exchange, for example, has outdone the HUI during the last five years on a scale of more than 2:1.

...

-- posted by Jas_Jain

Top

17. Jan 21, 2008 6:18 AM

» Jas_Jain - Baaaaaa, baaaaaa, baaaaaa…

--
January 21,2008

Baaaaaa, baaaaaa, baaaaaa...

That cry you hear is from India Goats rounded up for the slaughter who are now facing the same fate as they watched for America Pigs and ignored. Even America Pigs are resting their hopes on China Bulls and India Goats to keep consuming. Not if lot of China Bulls and India Goats get slaughtered.

India's Crooks, trained in America, or badly copying America, took pages out of America's Crooks on how to scam the public (Pushing Debt and goosing up the Scam Market), spiced it up for local consumption and then they started serving the hot curry to America Pigs and the rest. It was the rush of America's Crooks and Pigs that took India Goats to a whole new level of delirium.

Let me be clear: Slaughter of America Pigs, China Bulls and India Goats has begun in earnest and impotent Bernanke and Bush are of no help (they could make it uglier, though). What sort of dope would put faith in these guys' ability? In case it matters, American People are politically impotent. All the real political power rests in the hands of America's Crooks. Policies that favor America's Crooks will keep getting implemented in the name of helping the overall economy and at the expense of hardworking Americans. I am sure that it is no different in India.

Rule of the Crooks always ends badly, be it America, or India.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

Top

18. Jan 29, 2008 10:49 AM

» Jas_Jain - FW: Re: India

From: Ron
Sub: India

Jas I find your very clear opinion on India interesting.

Thanks, Ron.

Right or wrong, I like to be very clear. I have been advised by many to use ambiguous language so as not to turn people off by sounding confident. Propagandists know exactly how to communicate and please their audience! Americans LOVE to listen to propagandists that feed what they want to hear. Americans have a big menu of propagandists to choose from and they choose the one that reinforces their prejudices. Just look at the success of Cramer and O'Rielly.

I know Indians and the Indian political system to some degree and only a dope would invest in the Indian Scam Market. India exists to make America look really good! Bigger a democracy more doped a population! In that regard, India Is #! and America is #2. Bigger the better? For democracy, smaller is really better.

Yesterday on NBC evening news they showed how companies use yanks in their homes to replace India call centers. I know some HR folks in BIG companies in the US and they tell me that India is fast putting itself out of biz. It appears that the engineers mostly are robots and not creative...or allowed to be. The Indians tend to be too demanding .......and the salary increases have been outrageous. Bottom line. ....cheaper and easier to do biz in the USA.

India will unravel at a speed that will take all by surprise.

Ron

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain

Top

19. Apr 11, 2008 8:31 AM

» Jas_Jain - FWC: India feeling the pinch from US recession

David Rosenberg; 04/11/08:

"India feeling the pinch from US recession -- The US accounts for a large chunk (over 50%) of India's tech/outsourcing sector. Little wonder that sector is already starting to see an impact from the slowdown in the US. PricewaterhouseCoopers India expects overall growth to be weaker (around 5-8%) for the next three years as the US recession hits not only the tech sector but also other export sectors as well."

India will feel the axe of the US depression. Slaughter of India Goats (in the Scam Market) is only in the first inning. Too may dopes are bullish on India and they don't know sh*t about the correct historical parallels (the history of 1920s and 1930s in America that has lot of parallels in terms of rise of consumerism and the advertisement industry). Of the "big" economies India's is in the most precarious situation because law-and-order would be harder to maintain during the depression compared to other countries.

During bubbles people tend to get carried away. I don't think that Indians have been transformed overnight (the past five years). India should be in recession in 2009 and in depression by 2010. SENSEX should fall below 3,000 before 2011 is out.

Jas

-- posted by Jas_Jain