Investment
Semiconductor Capital Eq
- tomkk
- stocktiger
- SteveT
- SteveT
- PEIC
- SteveT
- doctorj2
- Jas_Jain
- stocktiger
- PEIC
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» tomkk - NVLS Novellus: Color on mid-q update
In response to NVLS Novellus: Color on mid-q update posted by Kirk:Kirk - thanks for posting this possible reason for LRCX large upswing yesterday (+8% yesterday, gave back so far 2% today). Although, the NVLS announcement seems somewhat timid to cause a sharp 8% jump in LRCX. No matter what was the cause, I am holding and keeping my fingers crossed.
- Tom
-- posted by tomkk
» stocktiger - Bernanke and Semi Mfg equip
In response to NVLS Novellus: Color on mid-q update posted by tomkk:
Really enjoyed ol' Ben's speech today. Specially the part about Semiconductor mfg equipment being so much more reliable that its increased productivity. What a crock!!!!!! Chips are cheaper to make because of 300 mm advances not because the machines run better. Guess Intel blew some serious smoke up someone's touche. I worked with the next generation machines and they break just as much because they have the same pieces parts inside of them.
Peace to all!
-- posted by stocktiger
» SteveT - Lam upgrade
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http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/St...
Scroll down to
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In other analyst moves, Lam Research (LRCX) rose 2.5% to $42.38 in pre-open trading after CIBC World Markets upgraded the semiconductor equipment maker to sector outperformer from sector performer, citing continuing strength in the dynamic random access memory market...
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$43.89 as I type 
-- posted by SteveT
» SteveT - Lam Research Blows Away Estimates
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:)
http://www.thestreet.com/newsanalysis/te...
By Alexei Oreskovic
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
10/11/2006 4:51 PM EDT
Lam Research (LRCX) more than tripled its bottom line during its most recently completed quarter, handily outpacing Wall Street expectations.
The Freemont, Calif., chip equipment company generated revenue of $604.4 million during the three months ended Sept. 24, compared with $320.9 million in sales at this time a year ago.
Net income surged to $183.5 million, or $1.27 a share, compared to $49.4 million, or 35 cents a share a year ago.
Shares of Lam jumped 5.6%, or $2.68, at $50.80 in extended trading.
Excluding a legal judgment, the resolution of certain foreign tax matters and the repatriation of foreign earnings, Lam said its net income is $163.8 million, or $1.13 a share.
On that basis, Lam still beat the average analyst expectation which called for EPS of $1.03 on revenue of $593.2 million.
Lam CEO Steve Newberry said the company's record operating margins and earnings demonstrate the "leverage throughout our business model."
"In addition we generated record levels of cash from operations, a consequence of our focus on a disciplined approach to asset management," said Newberry in a press release.
Lam, which makes wafer fabrication equipment used by semiconductor companies, said new orders recorded in its backlog during the quarter increased 13% sequentially to $725 million.
The company's healthy orders are in sharp contrast to several recent developments in the chip equipment sector which have raised fears of an imminent slowdown in the industry.
Earlier this month, industry research firm Gartner predicted that the chip equipment sector could see negative growth in 2007 , as semiconductor firms put the brakes on capital spending because of inventory and demand concerns.
On Tuesday, Lam said it was acquiring the silicon growing and fabrication assets of Bullen Ultrasonics for roughly $175 million in cash.
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-- posted by SteveT
» PEIC - 2007 semiconductor sales growth will nearly match 2006
2007 semiconductor sales growth will nearly match 2006, says preliminary forecast
The Semiconductor Reporter
October 16, 2006
NEW YORK -- Industry analyst Mike Cowan today provided a preview forecast for 2007 worldwide semiconductor revenue growth. The Cowan LRA Model featured in The Semiconductor Reporter will generate in its first "official" iteration in about three weeks following the release by the SIA of September sales figures.
Currently, the model's five-quarter forecast goes out through the third quarter of 2007, and calls for the first three quarters to be up 7.8% compared to the first three quarters of 2006 -- using the model's forecast for 3Q06 and the actuals from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization for the first two quarters of 2006 (see Oct. 4 story).
To generate a 2007 forecast preview, Cowan used the model's current forecast for September 2007 sales, $24.936 billion, as if it were an "actual" number, allowing the model's five-quarter forecast to encompass the fourth quarter of 2007.
The result from the model is a "very healthy" preview forecast estimate for 4Q07, Cowan said -- sales of $71.951 billion. Combined with the other quarters in the forecast, this adds up to a $268.118 billion forecast for 2007, which is 8.35% above the $247.447 billion projected by the model for 2006 in this scenario (an 8.8% increase over 2005).
In other words, in this preliminary view, overall global semiconductor revenue growth will be essentially the same in 2007 as it is in 2008 -- just a shade weaker.
The preview assumes that the model's momentum indicator will read zero for the September data release at the beginning of next month, Cowan pointed out. The model does not predict what the momentum indicator will do, but on average, the indicator has been a little on the positive side this year so far. If that trend continues, the model's revenue forecast for the coming five quarters will likely get pushed up slightly.
The current forecast from iSuppli Corp. calls for semiconductor sales to rise 7.8% this year and 10.0% in 2007. Gartner Inc.'s Dataquest business unit is forecasting 10.9% revenue growth this year and 9.4% growth in 2007. Both of these market research firms gather data on chip sales that is independent of the WSTS figures.
-- posted by PEIC
» doctorj2 - LRCX Earnings Call Transcript
In response to LRCX Earnings Call Transcript posted by SteveT:
Mr. Market isn't taking the earnings news (or more likely the projections going forward) very well. LRCX is currently down over 12% today! A buying opportunity or is the market's assessment of LRCX's report correct?
-- posted by doctorj2
» Jas_Jain - Re: SOX looks bullish
In response to SOX looks bullish posted by Kirk:
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Brilliant Read of the Pattern, Kirk. Your timing couldn't have been more perfect:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/cha...
You might have called multi-year top! For this you deserve kudos.
Jas
-- posted by Jas_Jain
» stocktiger - Applied Materials
In response to 2006 semiconductor equipment sales at highest level since 2000 posted by Kirk:AMAT took it in the teeth today and even more aftermarket for flatline results. Geez I thought Mike Splinter was sharper.
-- posted by stocktiger
» PEIC - Chip Equipment Stocks Climb Despite Worry Of Order Slowdown
6/24/2007 8:26:56 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom
Chip Equipment Stocks Climb Despite Worry Of Order Slowdown
Jun 22, 2007 13:55:00 (ET)
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--At a time when some Wall Street analysts are warning of a slowdown in orders for chip-making equipment, shares of semiconductor equipment stocks have been surging.
While concerns abound that order cancellations and potential cuts in capital spending could hurt chip equipment companies in the short term, investors seem to be taking a longer-term view.
They argue that the chip equipment sector is no stranger to fits and starts, and that it pays to avoid focusing on near-term concerns. Moreover, they said, chip equipment is used by a slew of semiconductor makers, so if one area sees a slowdown, another segment may not. Not to mention that, as consumers' appetite for electronic gadgets continues to grow, so will demand for equipment to make chips that go into those devices.
"All of the chip guys are buying different equipment, and at any given time there's various degrees of demand," said Mark Mowrey, a senior analyst at Al Frank Asset Management, which owns shares of Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) and Lam Research Corp. (LRCX). "It's impossible to make good macro calls."
In recent weeks, Wall Street analysts have been warning that slowing demand for memory chips could result in delays of equipment orders. Some even think chip companies will cut the amount of money they spend on equipment this year. Growth expectations for the semiconductor market are also coming down, with the Gartner research firm saying last month that worldwide growth will be 2.5% this year, lower than its prior expectation of 6.4%. The Semiconductor Industry Association slashed its growth target to 1.8% from 10% for 2007.
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Nevertheless, chip equipment stocks have been moving higher. Applied Material's stock is up more than 40% since setting a 52-week low of $14.39 last July, while Lam Research's shares are up 47% since a 52-week low of $36.66, also last July. Meanwhile, shares of Novellus Systems Inc. (NVLS) are trading 36% higher than their July 2006 low of $22.55, while KLA-Tecnor Corp. (KLAC) is up 46% since a low of $38.38 in July.
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The gains by those chip equipment stocks are outpacing the larger semiconductor sector, as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 25% over that period.
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Bullish investors argue that concerns over a slowdown are already reflected in the stocks and that demand will increase later in the year as consumers and corporations plunk down money for new PCs, cellphones, flat panels, MP3 players and digital cameras, all of which use semiconductors. The chip equipment market is volatile by nature, they point out, with demand appearing to weaken one day and picking up the next.
Micron Technology Inc.'s (MU) share price activity this week illustrates that volatility. Micron's stock has been under pressure over concerns of aggressive pricing for memory chips, but shares surged on comments that spot pricing for memory chips saw an uptick.
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"I think we could be in for a two- to three-year up cycle," said William Smith, president and senior portfolio manager at Smith Asset Management, which owns chip stocks. He added, however, that Wall Street analysts "won't jump on board until next year. Until it looks good on their spreadsheets, they don't want to touch it."
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Smith thinks Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) Vista operating system, as well as electronic gadgets, will drive the cycle. "People love gadgets; that's not going away," he said.
Meanwhile, Daniel Morgan, a longtime chip investor and portfolio manager at Synovus Trust Co., said investors are betting that things will recover next year and start to improve. He said 50% of the demand for chip equipment is outside the U.S., so a slowing U.S. economy shouldn't weigh too heavily.
"Everyone seems to be holding on to the notion that, in 2008, things will recover and improve," said Morgan. "Everyone is continuing to stay pretty bullish on tech."
-- posted by PEIC
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