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INTC: Intel & Semi Co's

  1. stocktiger
  2. smile_1
  3. stocktiger
  4. Normxxx
  5. stocktiger
  6. SteveT
  7. SteveT
  8. smile_1
  9. smile_1
  10. Normxxx

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403.   Jun 15, 2007 8:06 AM

» stocktiger - 52 week highs

In response to 52 week highs posted by Kirk:


Good predictions Kirk! PONG was invented when we were kids, my bro went thru law school with the FIRST "portable" PC in the mid 80's when I was fixing machines to make game chips for Atari. 386 to Dual Pentium development occured and now we're getting quad processors. Most people don't understand what an incredible leap this has been.

I predict Nanotech and Biotech will eventually have convergence (within 20-30 yrs) resulting in Medical advances and quality of life improvements in other areas we haven't even imagined. Of course there will be the dark side of increased electronic monitoring and loss of personal freedom not to mention a barcode or RFD device for every person.

-- posted by stocktiger


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404.   Jul 5, 2007 6:38 AM

» smile_1 - From Intel on iPhone & Apple TV

In response to From Intel on iPhone & Apple TV posted by Jackson123r:
.
Nice device. At $499 to $599 a pop + a 2 year commitment contract with AT&T, you just have to be in awe of the hype and great marketing skills of Apple on this product.
______

Unless the price comes down significantly (Apple skimming 55%+ profit margins) the mania will have limits IMO.

Expect the next iteration out later this year will cut the current version price by 25-30%, but you are still left with a hefty bill for a 2 year mandatory plan for AT&T slow drop call network of between $1439.76 and $2399.76.

Hard to believe there are over 250,000 (more likely 500k+) lemmings clambering and paying up for this device. Great marketing case study - props to Jobs and crew. I hear the shopping bag for the Iphone was sold recently to some idiot who paid over $300 for it on ebay. You gotta love it... happy

Holders of AAPL stock are the real winners.

-- posted by smile_1


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405.   Jul 5, 2007 6:57 AM

» stocktiger - From Intel on iPhone & Apple TV

In response to From Intel on iPhone & Apple TV posted by smile_1:


Never underestimate people's desire for gadgets and the stronger desier to have the coolest gadget. I'm agree with Smile and luckily hold AAPL stock.

INTC moving slightly, anticipate major production issues as they roll out their new "plan". Displacing 20 yr veterans with AMHS robots and new college grad engineers will fail and eventually they will have massive vendor contracts which severely cut into the bottom line.

-- posted by stocktiger


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406.   Jul 9, 2007 11:37 AM

» Normxxx - Core 2 CPU Too Buggy To Buy?

Bugs in Intel's Core 2 CPU. [ยน]
Click here for link to complete article: http://marc.info/?l=openbsd-misc&m=11829...


By Theo de Raadt | 9 July 2007

List: openbsd-misc
Subject: Intel Core 2
From: Theo de Raadt
Date: 2007-06-27 17:08:16
Message-ID: 200706271708.l5RH8GkK024621 () cvs ! openbsd ! org
[Download message RAW]

Various developers are busy implementing workarounds for serious bugs in Intel's Core 2 cpu.

These processors are buggy as hell, and some of these bugs don't just cause development/debugging problems, but will *ASSUREDLY* be exploitable from userland code.

As is typical, BIOS vendors will be very late providing workarounds / fixes for these processors bugs. Some bugs are unfixable and cannot be worked around. Intel only provides detailed fixes to BIOS vendors and large operating system groups. Open Source operating systems are largely left in the cold.

Full (current) errata from Intel:

        http://download.intel.com/design/process...

        -- We bet there are many more errata not yet announced-- every month
        this file gets larger.


        -- Intel understates the impact of these errata very significantly.
        Almost all operating systems will run into these bugs.

        -- Basically the MMU simply does not operate as specified/implemented
        in previous generations of x86 hardware. It is not just buggy, but
        Intel has gone further and defined "new ways to handle page tables"
        (see page 58).

        -- Some of these bugs are along the lines of "buffer overflow"; where
        a write-protect or non-execute bit for a page table entry is ignored.
        Others are floating point instruction non-coherencies, or memory
        corruptions-- outside of the range of permitted writing for the
        process-- running common instruction sequences.

        -- All of this is just unbelievable to many of us.

An easier summary document for some people to read:

http://www.geek.com/images/geeknews/2006...

Note that some errata like AI65, AI79, AI43, AI39, AI90, AI99 scare the hell out of us. Some of these are things that cannot be fixed in running code, and some are things that every operating system will do until about mid-2008, because that is how the MMU has always been managed on all generations of Intel/AMD/whoeverelse hardware. Now Intel is telling people to manage the MMU's TLB flushes in a new and different way. Yet even if we do so, some of the errata listed are unaffected by doing so.

As I said before, hiding in this list are 20-30 bugs that cannot be worked around by operating systems, and will be potentially exploitable. I would bet a lot of money that at least 2-3 of them are [already in process of being exploited].

For instance, AI90 is exploitable on some operating systems (but not OpenBSD running default binaries).

At this time, I cannot recommend purchase of any machines based on the Intel Core 2 until these issues are dealt with (which I suspect will take more than a year). Intel must become more transparent.

(While here, I would like to say that AMD is becoming less helpful day by day towards open source operating systems too, perhaps because their serious errata lists are growing rapidly as well).

  M O R E. . .

Normxxx    
______________
The contents of any third-party letters/reports above do not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

The content of any message or post by normxxx anywhere on this site is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. Such is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should always consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

-- posted by Normxxx


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407.   Jul 9, 2007 11:49 AM

» stocktiger - Core 2 CPU Too Buggy To Buy?

In response to Core 2 CPU Too Buggy To Buy? posted by Normxxx:


Remember the INTC calamity with bugs in 1995ish when they ended up paying out millions to the customers? Reliability issues and software bugs are the number 1 nemesis at these companies. With increased pressure to improve wafer output, many analytical steps (that catch problems) get bypassed to improve throughput.
Seen it, done it, read the book, and went to the spanking meetings afterwords.

Mark my words, when they are laying off 20 yr vets to let brand new and young engineers (who aren't experienced in electro-mechanical troubleshooting) try and fix complex process equipment, its only a matter of time till they have a HUGE excursion and/or reliability issues with the product.

Take your profits or take your chances.

-- posted by stocktiger


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408.   Jul 19, 2007 3:43 AM

» SteveT - Q2 2007 Earnings Call Transcript

.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/41347?so...

-- posted by SteveT


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409.   Jul 19, 2007 3:45 AM

» SteveT - Intel Quarter Hints At AMD Trainwreck Coming Thursday

.
Larry Dignan (ZDNet) submits: Following Intel's (INTC) decent-but not good enough to make Wall Street happy-second quarter it seems to be a good bet that AMD's (AMD) financial results will be a debacle.

We'll know Thursday when AMD reports its second quarter earnings, but Intel is willing to suffer self-inflicted wounds on the chip pricing front. And if Intel is dinged AMD may really get whacked. According to Thomson Financial, Wall Street isn't expecting much from AMD anyway-the company is expected to report a loss of 85 cents a share on revenue of $1.25 billion.

Intel's quarter was in line with estimates, but the big takeaway was that gross margin was 46.9 percent, below Wall Street expectations.

On Tuesday night's earnings conference call, Intel CEO Paul Otellini noted that chip pricing was tough. Otellini said:

"It was a more competitive pricing environment than we thought in Q2, and we expect it to continue to be somewhat competitive which is what you're seeing in our margin outlook for the year. We believe the best defense against the competitive price environment is better product."

When asked about the pricing pressure Otellini added: "It is much more targeted now at the low end of the desktop and even a little bit of the notebook marketplace, and a year ago it was higher in the stacks in many areas."

He should have just said that AMD isn't giving up market share easily even though the two rivals are headed in opposite directions.

Intel analysts appear mixed on the quarter. Some analysts say AMD is fighting back with lower prices. Others think Intel's margins will improve as it thumps AMD some more. Others note that Intel's game plan is unsustainable and part of the problem is bloated inventory. (See all AMD and Intel resources).

One of the more notable comments came from Merrill Lynch analyst Joe Osha:

Intel's second quarter looks like it was a fire sale. As the company has sought to keep competitive pressure on AMD, keep its own fabs loaded and stay on its process technology roadmap, the result has been chronic overproduction. The company's explanations regarding its gross margin seem to grow more complex every quarter, and yesterday was no exception. We're not interested - the basic fact remains that in the fourth quarter of 2005, Intel finished the quarter with $10.2 billion in revenue and $3.1 billion in inventory. By the first quarter of 2007, Intel was at $8.9 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in inventory. Intel is too big for the market opportunity that's available to it.

Osha continued:

That situation is unsustainable, and Intel appears to have responded during the second quarter by increasing its efforts to put volume into the market, even at the expense of pricing. Intel's management characterized the pricing environment in low-end products as weak, but we think a big part of that weakness was caused by Intel leaning on the market. We note that our model shows Q2 units up by 1%, which is unseasonally strong. Intel's strategy seems to have worked - inventories dropped in both dollar and days terms - and also had the added benefit of putting more pressure on AMD. We expect AMD's Q2 results to show the impact of Intel's actions.

What's truly a drag about this Intel outlook is that the PC market looks pretty healthy in spite of usual seasonal patterns. But a pricing war may mean that neither Intel nor AMD make as much money as they could.

In any case, AMD won't give up market share to Intel quietly. AMD seems to be matching any race to the pricing bottom. And that means AMD is likely to post some ugly results on Thursday.

http://chip.seekingalpha.com/article/414...

.

-- posted by SteveT


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410.   Jul 19, 2007 3:22 PM

» smile_1 - Intel Quarter Hints At AMD Trainwreck Coming Thursday

In response to Intel Quarter Hints At AMD Trainwreck Coming Thursday posted by SteveT:
.
well I must say those numbers from AMD look horrible, however after hrs the stock is soaring on a beat on the top line number and prospect of improving margins...
______

I think those buying this pig are in for a bad beating. Intel conference call said pricing will be challenging these guys appear to be saying they will overcome the challenges and do better.

The whisper on AMD was a loss of 81 cents per shr. AMD actually lost 1.09/shr with a one time charge of 24cents so adjusting for this they hit the wall street est. of loss but missed the whisper by a country mile.

not only that but global share give back to Intel is around 5.6% where AMD went from 17% of global down to around 11% and now appears to be stable in 2nd Q at 11.4%; they are also predicting break-even by Q4...

let's see what barcelona can do, the new server chip may blow the doors off the competition... we shall see.

-- posted by smile_1


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411.   Aug 22, 2007 11:59 AM

» smile_1 - AMD Debt will Kill it.

In response to AMD Debt will Kill it. posted by Kirk:


good call... getting close to an AMD kill, if Intel is able to stay on top of the technology curve

well maybe closer to an AMD wipe out which is essentially a kill.

PnF charts are pointing to about a 6.5 price target for AMD on a "Spread Triple Bottom Breakdown" pattern

add to this Intel will be out with Penryn 45nm for notebooks in Q1 of next year (2008), followed in 2009 by the big cajona... Nehalem which will be a scalable architecture with some products having on-board memory controller, on-package GPU, and up to 16 threads per chip.

Intel appears to be following thru with their pledge to stay ahead of the technology game. 28/shr coming followed by 32/shr with a top end of about 39 to 42 in a year and a half if all goes well happy

-- posted by smile_1


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412.   Nov 11, 2007 1:28 PM

» Normxxx - Intel Seeks Microchip Edge


Intel Seeks Microchip Edge With Non-Silicon Processors
http://normxxxruminates.blogspot.com/200...

-- posted by Normxxx


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