Investment

» SteveT - August 3, 2007 Sentiment

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I am using Bernie Schaeffer's site for the II data. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/street...
Note for clarification historic sentiment tables are for that current week and not the four-week moving average.

Investors Intelligence Bulls 47.2% Bears 26.4% Correction 26.4%
47.2/(47.2+26.4) = 64.13%
Four Week Average = 70.48%


A few historic dates:
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 58.91%
9-17-01 52.0%
9-21-01 48.7%
7-19-02 47.2%
7-23-02 47.2%
10-9-02 50.0%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 52.8%
Four Week Average = 49.28%

hairie has researched some fascinating numbers for all time high bulls readings going back to 1965. http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
and lows from 1965-2003 http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 45.9% Bears 40% Neutral 14.1%
45.9/(45.9+40) = 53.43%
Four Week Average = 55.02%

Historic dates for comparison:
7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25
9-10-01 47.34% S&P 500 Close 1085.78
9-17-01 42.11% S&P 500 Close 1038.77
9-21-01 41.08% S&P 500 Close 965.80
7-19-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 847.75
7-23-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 797.70
10-9-02 42.36% S&P 500 Close 776.76

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 54.1%
Four Week Average = 56.13%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/index.cfm

As of August 3, 2007 close
The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at 1.26. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed Friday at 25.16. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t

.

-- posted by SteveT

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» econohead - August 3, 2007 Sentiment

In response to August 3, 2007 Sentiment posted by SteveT:

Do you know where i can get historical data to put into a spreadsheet for the II and AAII? Thanks in advance. -Mat

-- posted by econohead

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» SteveT - August 10, 2007 Sentiment

.

I am using Bernie Schaeffer's site for the II data. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/street...
Note for clarification historic sentiment tables are for that current week and not the four-week moving average.

Investors Intelligence Bulls 43.8% Bears 31.5% Correction 24.7%
43.8/(43.8+31.5) = 58.17%
Four Week Average = 67.44%


A few historic dates:
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 58.91%
9-17-01 52.0%
9-21-01 48.7%
7-19-02 47.2%
7-23-02 47.2%
10-9-02 50.0%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 56.2%
Four Week Average = 50.70%

hairie has researched some fascinating numbers for all time high bulls readings going back to 1965. http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
and lows from 1965-2003 http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 45.8% Bears 39% Neutral 15.3%
45.8/(45.8+39) = 54.01%
Four Week Average = 53.82%

Historic dates for comparison:
7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25
9-10-01 47.34% S&P 500 Close 1085.78
9-17-01 42.11% S&P 500 Close 1038.77
9-21-01 41.08% S&P 500 Close 965.80
7-19-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 847.75
7-23-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 797.70
10-9-02 42.36% S&P 500 Close 776.76

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 54.3%
Four Week Average = 55.60%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/index.cfm

As of August 10, 2007 close
The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at 1.20. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed Friday at 28.30. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t

.

-- posted by SteveT

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» SteveT - August 3, 2007 Sentiment

In response to August 3, 2007 Sentiment posted by econohead:

.
I do have some of the data you seek and have made it available to folks that have made significant contributions to this web site. I have AAII back to July 1987 and II back to March 1990.
.

-- posted by SteveT

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» axolotl - Mark Hulburt's HSNSI Sentiment Index

..........plunged recently from 50.9% bullish to only 5.4%. It is however supposed to be a contrarian indicator taken from timer newsletters. There is also a bloggers Sentiment Index which is not worth anything IMO since it seems to be coincident with the market - market goes up - it goes bullish and market down - bearish.

-- posted by axolotl

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» SteveT - August 17, 2007 Sentiment

.

I am using Bernie Schaeffer's site for the II data. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/street...
Note for clarification historic sentiment tables are for that current week and not the four-week moving average.

Investors Intelligence Bulls 43.8% Bears 32.6% Correction 23.6%
43.8/(43.8+32.6) = 57.33%
Four Week Average = 63.49%


A few historic dates:
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 58.91%
9-17-01 52.0%
9-21-01 48.7%
7-19-02 47.2%
7-23-02 47.2%
10-9-02 50.0%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 56.2%
Four Week Average = 52.83%

hairie has researched some fascinating numbers for all time high bulls readings going back to 1965. http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
and lows from 1965-2003 http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 42.2% Bears 45.6% Neutral 12.2%
42.2/(42.2+45.6) = 48.06%
Four Week Average = 52.46%

Historic dates for comparison:
7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25
9-10-01 47.34% S&P 500 Close 1085.78
9-17-01 42.11% S&P 500 Close 1038.77
9-21-01 41.08% S&P 500 Close 965.80
7-19-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 847.75
7-23-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 797.70
10-9-02 42.36% S&P 500 Close 776.76

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 57.8%
Four Week Average = 55.5%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/index.cfm

As of August 17, 2007 close
The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at 1.23. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed Friday at 29.99. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t

.

-- posted by SteveT

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» SteveT - August 24, 2007 Sentiment

.

I am using Bernie Schaeffer's site for the II data. http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/street...
Note for clarification historic sentiment tables are for that current week and not the four-week moving average.

Investors Intelligence Bulls 40.6% Bears 37.4% Correction 22%
40.6/(40.6+37.4) = 52.05%
Four Week Average = 57.83%


A few historic dates:
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 58.91%
9-17-01 52.0%
9-21-01 48.7%
7-19-02 47.2%
7-23-02 47.2%
10-9-02 50.0%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 59.4%
Four Week Average = 56.15%

hairie has researched some fascinating numbers for all time high bulls readings going back to 1965. http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
and lows from 1965-2003 http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 41.3% Bears 43.1% Neutral 15.6%
41.3/(41.3+43.1) = 48.93%
Four Week Average = 51.09%

Historic dates for comparison:
7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25
9-10-01 47.34% S&P 500 Close 1085.78
9-17-01 42.11% S&P 500 Close 1038.77
9-21-01 41.08% S&P 500 Close 965.80
7-19-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 847.75
7-23-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 797.70
10-9-02 42.36% S&P 500 Close 776.76

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 58.7%
Four Week Average = 56.23%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com/index.cfm

As of August 24, 2007 close
The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at 1.18. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed Friday at 20.72. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t

.

-- posted by SteveT

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» Normxxx - Americans Turn Negative, Expect Recession

Americans Turn Negative on Economy, Expect Recession, Poll Says

Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Almost two-thirds of Americans say a recession is likely in the next year and a majority believes the economy is already faltering, according to a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey.

By 65 percent to 29 percent, Americans say they expect a recession, the poll found. Fifty-one percent say the economy is doing poorly, compared with 46 percent who say it is doing well, the gloomiest view since February 2003.

MUCH MORE AT:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...

-- posted by Normxxx

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» insidervision - August 3, 2007 Sentiment

In response to August 3, 2007 Sentiment posted by SteveT:

I am attempting to make sentiment data more intelligible and useful by placing it on special standard deviation plots along with insider trading data charts. SteveT, if you can provide me the historical AAII and II data in a format that can be transferred to Excel, I will provide the data back to you on the customized Excel spreadsheets I'm attempting to build (will take about a week), along with some tips how to use this data with what insiders are doing, also in chart form. Let me know if you can help. Thanks greatly for responding if you can help.

-- posted by insidervision

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» Normxxx - 2008 vs 1992

2008 vs 1992

http://normxxx.blogspot.com/2008/01/2008...

-- posted by Normxxx

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