Point and Figure Charting

Technical Analysis Using Point and Figure Charting

Jul 15, 2006 Kirk Lindstrom

Beartoes explains Point and Figure charting and answers your questions on the discussion forum.

What is point and figure. It is the relationship between supply and demand. If you were to look at a chart, you will see (X's) and (O's), some numbers and some letters.

What does all that me. It is quite simple. The X's signify demand and the O's signify supply. It is that simple. The letters and the number just tell you what month you are in. Starting in January (1) to December (C). So 1-9 are the first nine months of the year and A,B,C are the last 3 months.

Point and figure charts are the easiest charts to read. There is no ambiguity about it. Here is why. If you go to the far right of the chart, and lets say it is in a column of X's. If the last column of X's exceeds a previous column of X's you have what is called a double top and the chart is on a buy signal. The opposite applies to O's. If the last column to the right is O's and that column exceeds the previous column of O's, you have a double bottom and a sell signal. It is that easy. If you are on a buy demand has control and if you are on a sell supply has control. It is basic economics. Supply and demand.

When demand is in control the price will rise, when supply has control the price will drop.

What I hope to accomplish with this topic is to show and explain various charts to determine if we have demand in control or supply in control.

PnF can also be used to show relative strength. I hope to show relative strength in conjunction with the charts. This will help to show if you will see under performance or out performance of a specific chart for the near term as well as the long term.

There is so much activity going on in the markets, PnF can help clear up some of the confusion. I hope to accomplish this with the various charts and topics that I will be displaying.

I also have many other indicators using PnF that will help to show if the overall market is on offense or defense.

I take a top down approach for the markets. First is the overall market expecting to go up/down. Next the sector, then the stock.

For example right now all of my indicator are showing that we are in a defensive mode. The risk is high in the markets currently. I hope to show this relationship using PnF charts.

I feel that this will be a wonderful learning experience for all to see.

The copyright of the article Point and Figure Charting in Investment is owned by Kirk Lindstrom. Permission to republish Point and Figure Charting in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.

134 Comments

Comments

Jun 15, 2006 10:49 AM

Steve Madigan :

Point and Figure
What is point and figure. It is the relationship between supply and demand. If you were to look at a chart, you will see (X's) and (O's), some numbers and some letters.
What does all that me. It is quite simple. The X's signify demand and the O's signify supply. It is that simple. The letters and the number just tell you what month you are in. Starting in January (1) to December (C). So 1-9 are the first nine months of the year and A,B,C are the last 3 months.
Point and figure charts are the easiest charts to read. There is no ambiguity about it. Here is why. If you go to the far right of the chart, and lets say it is in a column of X's. If the last column of X's exceeds a previous column of X's you have what is called a double top and the chart is on a buy signal. The opposite applies to O's. If the last column to the right is O's and that column exceeds the previous column of O's, you have a double bottom and a sell signal. It is that easy. If you are on a buy demand has control and if you are on a sell supply has control. It is basic economic. Supply and demand.
When demand is in control the price will rise, when supply has control the price will drop.
What I hope to accomplish with this topic is to show and explain various charts to determine if we have demand in control or supply in control.
PnF can also be used to show relative strength. I hope to show relative strength in conjunction with the charts. This will help to show if you will see under performance or out performance of a specific chart for the near term as well as the long term.
There is so much activity going on in the markets, PnF can help clear up some of the confusion. I hope to accomplish this with the various charts and topics that I will be displaying.
I also have many other indicators using PnF that will help to show if the overall market is on offense or defense.
I take a top down approach for the markets. First is the overall market expecting to go up/down. Next the sector, then the stock.
For example right now all of my indicator are showing that we are in a defensive mode. The risk is high in the markets currently. I hope to show this relationship using PnF charts.
I feel that this will be a wonderful learning experience for all to see.
beartoes
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Jun 15, 2006 11:26 AM

Steve Madigan :

Well lets get this going with a little discussion about OIL. Seems to be one of the market movers on a daily basis.
Everyone I think knows about the OIH (Oil Service Holders) ETF. This seems to be a play when Crude is moving up/down. So what is the story on the OIH using PnF. Well here goes. This is what I am seeing. The charts will follow the discussion.
One thing to note here before I get started is, ETF's are weighted, so 1 or 2 companies can move the ETF dramatically, so be sure you know the makeup before you think about using them in your portfolio. For example, BHI is 10.3% of the OIH, HAL is 10.5%, RIg is 9.03%, there is 30% of the move of the OIH in just those 3 and there are approx 18 members. I am not going to list them all. If you want more info please check www.amex.com for a list of all the ETF's and there corresponding members. So let move on.
The trend for the OIH has turned negative for the first time since 5/05, when it just recently broke through the Bullish Support Line (Diagonal line on the chart). This chart went negative at 140. It did find support at the 132 level not once but now 3 times. So this will be a critical level for the future. Break 132 and print 130 and all bets are off.

OIH 2pt chart
<pre>
176 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 176
174 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 174|
172 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 172|
170 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 170|
168 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | 168|
166 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| |X|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | 166|
164 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | | 164|
162 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| |5|O|X|O| | |•| | | | | | | | | | 162|
160 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O| |O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | 160|
158 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X| | |O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | 158|
156 | | | | | | | | || |X| | | | | | | | | |X| |X|O|X| | |O| | |X| | |•| | | | | | | 156|
154 | | | | | | | | X| |X|O|X| | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X| | |O| | |6|O| | | | | | | Med|154|
152 | | | | | | | | X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | |4|O|X|O| | | |O| | |X|O| |

Jun 15, 2006 12:13 PM

stocktiger :

Great explanation BearToes! You are one mean PF charting guru my friend. I am learning a great deal from you and am damn glad you joined this forum!!!!!!

Jun 15, 2006 2:06 PM

Steve Madigan :

They are dancing on the floor of the exchange. A couple of good days and the bottom is in...Ha! Not according to my indicators. Look at the bold below. O's are not good, and bear confirmed is even worse. We will just have to wait and see...

Symbol Date Level Current Change Status Column
BPNYSE 06/14/2006 44.00 42.58 -1.03 Bear Confirmed O 
MONYSE 06/14/2006 20.00 18.89 -1.36 Bear Confirmed O 
PTNYSE 06/14/2006 68.00 66.45 -0.49 Bear Confirmed O 
RSPNYSE 06/14/2006 54.00 52.11 -0.05 Bull Correction O 
RSXNYSE 06/14/2006 42.00 40.42 -0.28 Bull Correction O 
TWNYSE 06/14/2006 16.00 15.94 -0.09 Bear Confirmed O 
30NYSE 06/14/2006 32.00 30.93 0.68 Bear Confirmed O 
HILO 06/12/2006 34.00 32.01 -1.15 Bull Alert X

BP = bullish percent (1 stock one vote)
MO = momentum
PT = stock in a positive trend (above their bullish support line)
RSP = % of stocks on RS buy signal
RSX = % of stocks with RS in a column of X's
TWN = % of stocks above there 10 Week ma
30 = % of stocks above there 30 week ma

Todays has not been posted, so when it does I will post it here and we can see the change.

Beartoes
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Jun 15, 2006 3:08 PM

stocktiger :

Good info to know, the RSI data I looked at on specific investments sure didn't look like a sure fire turn yet but YOU are the man when it comes to these charts. Almost jumped in the pool today but need more data. Norm has been a pretty good predictor and seems to think this is just a tango, not a full blown waltz.

Good job on sharing!!!

Jun 16, 2006 12:16 PM

You'll get the break you want, but probably not until Q4, when the slowdown/recession has set in— that should prove the impetus for the next big rally in stocks.

Jun 16, 2006 6:06 PM

Steve Madigan :

I think you are seeing crude stuck at 70 because statistically that is where it should be the majority of the time. 70 is the mid of the 10 week trading band. I can see this trading from 69-74. Print 68 then the bullish support line should show some support at 67. The top of the trading band is 76 and should be some form of resistence once 75 is printed. Bottom of the band is 64 for FYI. I would show the chart but don't have the html to make them print right.
beartoes.
Kirk...could you plese send me the info to get the charts to print right. I am on the road and can not get to the mail on my home computor to look it up. Please email it to me and I will be able to pick it up once I get to Texas and open my mail. Thanks Kirk...

Jun 16, 2006 7:20 PM

Steve Madigan :

Kirk,
plese email me the html that makes my pnf charts show up right. You know <pre><font... you know what you gave me before. I can't get to my email because I am out of town. email it please. I got your other email
Thanks,
beartoes

Jun 20, 2006 7:34 AM

Steve Madigan :

I was just looking at the SPX sept contract chart and this chart has been making lower low's and lower highs. Not a very pretty chart. If I look at the 5 pt chart it will take a breakout to 1275 go give a buy signal and that could give it a chance to hit the middle of the trading band at 1295 and then it will run into trouble again. But that is just my opinion. I will show you both charts the 2 pt and the 5 so you can see what I mean.
Sept SPX 2 pt chart
<pre>
1350 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1350
1348 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1348|
1346 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1346|
1344 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1344|
1342 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1342|
1340 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1340|
1338 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1338|
1336 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1336|
1334 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | |X|O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1334|
1332 | | | | | | | | | | | |X| |X|O|X| | | |X|O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1332|
1330 | | | |X| | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O| | |X|O| | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | 1330|
1328 | | | |X|O| | |X| |X| |X|O|X|O|X|O|X| |X|O| | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | 1328|
1326 | | | |X|O|X| |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|5|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | 1326|
1324 | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | 1324|
1322 | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|4|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| |O| | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | 1322|
1320 | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | |O| | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | 1320|
1318 X| | | |X|O| |O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | |O| | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | 1318|
1316 X|O| | |X| | |O|X|O| |O|X|O|X| | | | | | |O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1316|
1314 X|O|X| |X| | |O|X| | |O| |O|X| | | | | |•|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1314|
1312 X|O|X|O|X| | |O| | | | | |O|X| | | | |•| |O|X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1312|
1310 |O|X|O|X| | | | | | | | |O|X| | | |•| | |O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1310|
1308 |O|3|O|X| | | | | | | | |O

Jun 20, 2006 8:40 PM

allancoleman :

Hello Mr. Beartoes ,

appreciate it if you would visit our ' GNMA " Ginne Mae " ' forum ( http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/541 ) and give us your opinion of the PnF chart that smile1 posted on our forum . any other fundamental and technical analysis would also be appreciated .

thanks in advance :) , allancoleman

Jun 21, 2006 7:29 PM

Steve Madigan :

What I would like to show you is the crude oil continous chart. This chart takes into account the front month oil contract. So as the front month contract expires this chart then adds on the next forward month contract. And so on and so on. This shows how crude is trading a little different than just the crude oil chart.
What I will show is the 1.25 point chart and you can see how this has been on a beautiful up trend for years and looking at the chart can go on for some time. We could see a drop to 63.75 and still be in that same up trend.
Right now we are statistically in the middle of the trading band. Right where we should be.
<pre>
80.00 |-----|---------------|---------------------------|--------------------- 80.00
78.75 | | | | Top 78.75
77.50 | | | | 77.50
76.25 | | | | 76.25
75.00 |-----|---------------|---------------------------|-------X------------- 75.00
73.75 | | | | X O 73.75
72.50 | | | | X O X 72.50
71.25 | | | | X O X O 71.25
70.00 |-----|---------------|---------------------------|-------X-5-X-O-------Med 70.00
68.75 | | | X X X O X 6 68.75
67.50 | | | X O X X O 4 O 67.50
66.25 | | | X O X O X O X 66.25
65.00 |-----|---------------|---------------X-9-X-O-----X-2-----X------------- 65.00
63.75 | | | X O A X O X X • 63.75
62.50 | | | X O 1 O X O X • Bot 62.50
61.25 | | | 7 8 O X X O X O X • 61.25
60.00 |-----|---------------|-----------X-O-X-----O-C-O-X-O-X-3-•------------- 60.00
58.75 | | | X O X B X O X O • 58.75
57.50 | | X 4 X O X O X O | • 57.50
56.25 | | X O X O X O O | • 56.25

Jun 22, 2006 5:57 AM

Steve Madigan :

I was just checking the US dollar spot (DX/Y) and it may have turned the corner and as NORM says we will continue to see weakness in the dollar. This may be the time to move some cash to the EURO (FXE), this is a Rydex ETF that plays the EURO so we don't have to go to the futures market to play this.
As you can see from the charts the DX/Y has now reversed back to O's and the FXE has broken a double top to give a buy signal after it came all the way back to the middle of the trading band.
Here are the charts. First I will show the .25 chart for the DX/Y
<pre>
93.25 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 93.25
93.00 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 93.00|
92.75 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 92.75|
92.50 | •| | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 92.50|
92.25 | X|•| ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 92.25|
92.00 O|C|O|•||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 92.00|
91.75 O|X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 91.75|
91.50 O|X|O| |||•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 91.50|
91.25 O| |O|X||| |•| | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 91.25|
91.00 | | O|X|O| | |•| | | |X| |X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 91.00|
90.75 | | O|X|O| | | |•|•| |X|O|X|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 90.75|
90.50 | | O|X|1| | | | |X|•|X|O|X|O|X|•|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 90.50|
90.25 | •|O|X|O| | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|4|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 90.25|
90.00 •| |O|X|O| | | | |X|O|X|3|X|O|X|O|X|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 90.00|
89.75 | | O| |O| | | | |X|O| |O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 89.75|
89.50 | | | | O|X| |X| |2| | |O|•|O|X|O| |O|X|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | TOp|89.50|
89.25 | | | | O|X|O|X|O|X| | |•| |O|X| | |O|X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 89.25|
89.00 | | | | O|X|O|X|O|X| |•| | |O| | | |O|X|O| | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 89.00|
88.75 | | | | O| |O|X|O| |•| | | | | | | |O|X|O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 88.75|
88.50 | | | | || |O|X| |•| | | | | | | | |O| |O|X| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | |

Jun 22, 2006 7:41 AM

Be careful. The Europeans do not want the dollar much lower vs the euro; and the pressure of the G7 is on the Asiatics to raise the yen and yuan. So, I would favor the ¥en here.

However, Japan has temporarily stopped sopping up their 'free money' (aka QE— Quantitative Easing and ZIRP— Zero Interest Rate Policy) because it was wacking the Carry Trade so (and deflating everything it had erstwhile inflated), so the dollar is likely not to move much at all for a while here. When they resume their actions of 'ending' QE and ZIRP, the dollar should drop further against the ¥en, but hardly any more (if at all) against the euro.

I don't have much of a play for the yuan; I refuse to invest in a country, like Russia and China, that can and probably will screw you at any time! So, all that is left are direct money plays— you can buy CDs denominated in renmimbi (http://www.everbank.com/main.asp?idpage=pro_mscd&affid=eb&referID= 11600). But, I am not comfortable with a pure FX play. I know when I am out of my league, even for 'trifling' amounts (anything less than a billion in FX).

If you have the nerves and stomach for it (50% moves are not uncommon), you can also play the PMs.

Jun 22, 2006 7:59 AM

Steve Madigan :

Normxxx
I don't know Normxxx. Looking at the Sept Yen chart, it sure looks pretty ugly to me. Even the Yen spot is heading lower. You make the choice. You could be right, we shall see. Here is the Sept Yen chart.
<pre>
0.9400 | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.9400
0.9375 | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.9375|
0.9350 | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | TOp|0.9350|
0.9325 | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.9325|
0.9300 | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.9300|
0.9275 | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.9275|
0.9250 | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | |X| |X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.9250|
0.9225 | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O| | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | 0.9225|
0.9200 | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | 0.9200|
0.9175 | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | |X| |X|O|X|O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | 0.9175|
0.9150 | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | |X|O|X|O| |O|X| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | 0.9150|
0.9125 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | |X|O|X| | |O|X|O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | 0.9125|
0.9100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | |X|O| | | |O|X|O|X| |X| | |•| | | | | | | 0.9100|
0.9075 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | |X| | | | |O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | 0.9075|
0.9050 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| |•| |X| | | | |O| |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | 0.9050|
0.9025 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|•|X| | | | | | |O| |O|X|O| | | | | | | | | 0.9025|
0.9000 O|X| | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X| | | | | | | | |6|X|O| | | | | | | | | 0.9000|
0.8975 O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | |5|O|X|O|X| | | | | | | | |O|•|O| | | | | | | | | 0.8975|
0.8950 O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| |O|X| | | | | | | |•|•| |O| | | | | | | Med|0.8950|
0.8925 O| |O| | | | | | | | | | |X| |X| | |O| | | | | | | |•| | | |O|X| | | | | | | | 0.8925|
0.8900 | |O| | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X| | | | | | | | | |•| | | | |O|X|O| | | | | | | 0.8900|
0.8875 | |O| | |3| | | | | | | |X|O|X| | | | | | | | |•| | | | | |O|X|O| | | | | | | 0.8875|
0.8850 | |O| | |X|O|X| | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | |O| |O| | | | | | | 0.8850|
0.8825 | |O| | |X|O|X|O| | | | |X| | | | | |

Jun 24, 2006 5:39 PM

Steve Madigan :

Somewhere on one of these topic's I had mentioned the AGG (iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond Fund) as a place to put some money. It had given a nice buy signal here just lately, but now we have seen some deterioration. It has just broke two previous bottoms and with no near term support you can you this break as your stop. Bearish price objective 95.80, so there is some room here to fall.
Now with the spread triple bottom break, it does not look so good near term.

AGG (iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond Fund)
<pre>
104.2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 104.2
104.0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 104.0|
103.8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 103.8|
103.6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 103.6|
103.4 | | | X| |X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 103.4|
103.2 | | | X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 103.2|
103.0 | | | 6|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 103.0|
102.8 | | | X|O|X|7|X| |X| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 102.8|
102.6 | | | X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 102.6|
102.4 | X| |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 102.4|
102.2 | X|O|X|O| |O| |O|X|9|X| | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 102.2|
102.0 | X|O|X| | | | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 102.0|
101.8 | X|5|X| | | | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 101.8|
101.6 | X|O| | | | | |8|X|O| |O| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 101.6|
101.4 | X| | | | | | |O|X| | |O| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 101.4|
101.2 O|X| | | | | | |O|X| | |A| | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 101.2|
101.0 O|X| | | | | | |O| | | |O|X| | | | | |X| |1|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 101.0|
100.8 O| | | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O| | |X| |X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.8|
100.6 | | | | | | | | | | | | O|X|O| | |X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.6|
100.4 | | | | | | | | | | | | O| |O| | |X|O|X|O|||O|X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.4|
100.2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | O|X| |X|O|X| |||O|X

Jun 24, 2006 10:30 PM

The scenerio I gave you is the preferred scenerio of the G7 exJapan; Japan and China have their own scenerio, which is much less accommodative. It's why I prefer the sidelines when the elephants dance.

Nevertheless, however it works out, I think they can hold it together at least until 2009. After that, le déluge!

The content of any message or post by normxxx anywhere on this site is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. Such is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should always consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

Jun 26, 2006 5:33 AM

Steve Madigan :

Was just looking over the GOOG chart and it has been making higher lows and higher highs of late. Not looking to bad. During the recent market down turn, GOOG did not break the BSL. It did come down some, but no major breaks of trend lines.
Right now we are almost right in the middle of the trading band at 396, which might not be a bad place to get on.
The only thing I don't like is the stop is quite far away at 376 for a triple bottom break or even the trend line is farther away at 360. These are the down falls that I see right now.
RS is looking good against the market and its peers. In fact RS to the market just reversed back into X's. There has been some debate on where this stock belongs as far as sectors go and right now it is in the Internet sector and it is positive.
Overall market risk is still high right now so options would be the play.
Just some thoughts on the mighty google...Here are the charts.
4 pt default chart on Google
<pre>
484 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |484
480 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |480|
476 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |476|
472 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |472|
468 O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 468|
464 O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 464|
460 O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | TOp|460|
456 O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 456|
452 O|X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 452|
448 O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 448|
444 O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 444|
440 O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 440|
436 O|X|O|X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 436|
432 O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 432|
428 O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 428|
424 O|X|O| |O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 424|

Jun 26, 2006 11:47 AM

Steve Madigan :

Yep, it sure does. Has come down and touched it many times and bounces right off.
If we could get a little pullback on this 2 pt chart, it might not be to bad, say a sept or Oct call...
Get a little pullback to say the mid of the 10w at 396 or so, might look pretty good...
2 pt chart GOOG
<pre> 
458 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |458
456 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |456|
454 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |454|
452 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |452|
450 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 450|
448 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 448|
446 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 446|
444 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 444|
442 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 442|
440 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 440|
438 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 438|
436 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 436|
434 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 434|
432 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 432|
430 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 430|
428 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 428|
426 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 426|
424 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 424|
422 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 422|
420 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 420|
418 | | | | | | | | | X| | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 418|
416 | | | | | | | | | X|O| | |X|5| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 416|
414 | | | | | | | X| |X|O| | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 414|
412 | | | | | | | X|O|X|O|X| |X|O| | |

Jun 26, 2006 1:19 PM

Steve Madigan :

Here is an interesting chart...
CBST (Cubist Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ), in the Drug sector. This stock has over doubled since 5/05, which ain't bad. I wish I would have been in it from then, and that didn't happen. It did pop up on a search I did and looking at the chart it doesn't look to bad.
Here are the facts. The drug sector is unfavored right now which is a definite negative. But...it has only moved back to the mid of the 10w during all of the downward move of late in the market. RS to the market and its peers is positive. It has been adding X's since 6/15 and more today...
I show these of interest only... not a recommendation to buy/sell. For information only. When they pop up in certain searches that I do, I put them out here. Like GOOG, DIOD. These are from previous post. You make up your own mind.
So, let see some charts...
.5 chart of CBST
<pre> 
28.5 | | | 28.5
28.0 | | | 28.0
27.5 | | | 27.5
27.0 | | | 27.0
26.5 | | | X 26.5
26.0 | | | X O 26.0
25.5 | | | X O 25.5
25.0 |---|-----------------|-------X-------X-O--------- 25.0
24.5 | | | X X O X O 24.5
24.0 | | | 3 O X O X O 24.0
23.5 | | X X O X O 5 X O 23.5
23.0 | | X X O X O O X O X 6 x 23.0
22.5 | | X O 1 O X 4 X O X O X Med 22.5
22.0 | | X X O X O X O X O X O X 22.0
21.5 | | X X O X C X O X O X O X O X 21.5
21.0 | | X O X O X O X O X O X O X O X 21.0
20.5 | | X O B O O | 2 X O O X O 20.5
20.0 |---|-----X-A-X-------|-O-----------O-X----------- 20.0
19.5 | | X O X | O X 19.5
19.0 | | X O X | O 19.0
18.5 | | 9 O X | 18.5
18.0 | | X O X | 18.0
17.5 | | 8 O X | 17.5
17.0 | | X O | •

Jun 26, 2006 1:41 PM

Steve Madigan :

Just wanted to give you a quick update on the post a couple of days ago on FXE...
The chart has reversed up nicely right off of the trendline. Now we will need to see if it holds. A reversal back into O's and a print of 125 would not bold well for FXE. A break of 127 could take this to new all time highs. Time will tell...
Here is the chart
FXE chart
<pre> 
130.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 130.50
130.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 130.25|
130.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 130.00|
129.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 129.75|
129.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | | | 129.50|
129.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | |X| |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | 129.25|
129.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | |X| |X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | 129.00|
128.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X| | | |X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | 128.75|
128.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X| |X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | 128.50|
128.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|6|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | 128.25|
128.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| |O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | 128.00|
127.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | |O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | 127.75|
127.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | |O|X|O|X|O| |O| |O| | | | | | | | | | | 127.50|
127.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | |O| |O| | | | | |O| | | | | | | | | | | 127.25|
127.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O| | | | | | | | | | | 127.00|
126.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |5| | | | | | | | | | |O| | |X| | | | | | Med|126.75|
126.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O|X| |X|O| | | | | | | 126.50|
126.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | 126.25|
126.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O|X| | | | | | 126.00|
125.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O| |O|X| | | | | | 125.75|
125.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O| | | |O|X| | | | | | 125.50|
125.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O| | | | | | | 125.25|

Jun 27, 2006 8:44 AM

Steve Madigan :

This is an interesting chart. During the down ward move of the market LRCX came down to its support level around the 41 area. Did not break down, which is good. Looks to me like a print of 47 would move this stock to higher prices. RS is still in O's, but if it would move to the 47 number then I think you might see a switch in the RS to positive. 47 is right in the middle of the trading band. I will keep an eye on this one for the future. It is not quite ready to me right now. It is outperforming its peers in the Semi sector by the way. Looking at the middle chart the .5 chart, you can see that the print of 47 would break a spread quad top and also the bearish resistance line.
Here are the charts. First chart is the 1 pt chart. Next is the .5 and finally is the RS chart vs the SPXEWI. Here goes...
<pre>
57 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | TOp|57|
56 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 56| |
55 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 55| |
54 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 54| |
53 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | 53| |
52 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | 52| |
51 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | 51| |
50 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | |5|O| | | | | | | | | 50| |
49 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | 49| |
48 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | |2| | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | 48| |
47 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | |X|O| | | | | | | Med|47| |
46 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | |X|O|X| |X| | | | | | 46| |
45 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | |X|O|3| |X| |4|O|X|O|X| | | | | | 45| |
44 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X| | | | | | 44| |
43 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|6|X|O| | | | | | | 43| |
42 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | |X|O| |O|X|O| |O| | | | | | | | | 42| |
41 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | |X| | |O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 41| |
40 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | |X| | |

Jun 27, 2006 2:50 PM

Steve Madigan :

This is just another opinion, and we will just have to wait and see what happens. You may be right that the bottom has been put in since it did get pretty washed out at 28. But anyway here goes.
The BP is a great indicator and one that I use frequently. For those who don't know, what it is, one stock, one vote. So once a stock gives, say a PnF buy that is its vote. It could have 10 more buys, but it has already voted. The only time it gets to vote again is when it gives a sell signal, and that would be its vote. For example...you have 100 stocks and 50 of them are on PnF buy signals, you would divide the 50/100 and then multiply by 100 to get a % and you have 50%. This is then plotted on the chart.
So how does this compare to the DOW, NASDAQ or S&P. It doesn't compare. All of these indexes are either CAP weighted or PRICE weithted...In the DOW the higher priced stocks have more votes and the other 2 the stocks with the largest CAPITALIZATION weight have more votes. So in these indexes an handful of stocks can move the indexes a lot.
So in the charts below, I see the NDX making new highs ever since say OCT (A) of 2002. Beautiful pattern. Followed that trend line all the way up. Higher highs and higher lows.
What I see when I look at the BPNDX I see this making lower highs since June (6) of 2003. This meaning that fewer and fewer stocks were going on buy signals and the index was moving to new highs. Not to good of a thing.
The BPNDX did move below 30 in O's, which indicates a some what of a "washed out" condition. That could be the bottom.
We did see the reversal back into X's in June (6) of 2006. Will it keep moving higher. Will see... We really need to hold that trend line that we are flirting with right now. It needs to hold that 1500 level on the 25 pt chart. 1475 would not be a good thing.
We may have to retest that 30 level again on the BPNDX one more time buy we shall see.
The NDX is in beginning stages of what is called a shakeout pattern. If it holds and does not move lower at 1525 the 3 box reversal to 1600 would indicate a buy signal. That would start the shakeout pattern. The reversal to me is what we need to go long here.
Here are the charts...
First the 25 pt NDX chart and second the BPNDX chart. 2 pts per box.
<pre> 
1850 | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1850
1825 | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| |

Jun 28, 2006 11:06 PM

Steve Madigan :

Well the FXE reversed again back to O's and is testing the trend line one more time. Lets see if it holds. A print of 125 would not be a good thing for the FXE. That would be another sell and a break of the trendline.
Here is the chart. RS is still positive.
FXE .25 chart
<pre>
130.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 130.50
130.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 130.25|
130.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 130.00|
129.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 129.75|
129.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 129.50|
129.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | |X| |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 129.25|
129.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | |X| |X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 129.00|
128.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X| | | |X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 128.75|
128.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X| |X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 128.50|
128.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|6|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 128.25|
128.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| |O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 128.00|
127.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | |O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 127.75|
127.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | |O|X|O|X|O| |O| |O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 127.50|
127.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | |O| |O| | | | | |O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 127.25|
127.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 127.00|
126.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |5| | | | | | | | | | |O| | |X| | | | | | | | Med|126.75|
126.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O|X| |X|O| | | | | | | | | 126.50|
126.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O|X| | | | | | | | 126.25|
126.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | 126.00|
125.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O| |O|X|O| | | | | | | 125.75|
125.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O| | | |O|X|O| | | | | | | 125.50|
125.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O|•| | | | | | | | 125.25|
125.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | | | | |•|•| | | | | | |

Jun 29, 2006 4:54 AM

Steve Madigan :

Hello,

Here is the chart for the SEP06 contract. It is showing a bearish triangle. This bearish triangle was made with the 1250 print. But I do have an alert that we closed up on the day, so this should reverse back to X's tomorrow, if it doesn't print a 1246 and in that case the chart would continue to be in O's.
I was looking at the early morning trading of this contract and it is trading at 1261.70. If it opens there the chart will reverse back to X's. We shall see...
<pre>
1350 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1350
1348 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1348|
1346 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1346|
1344 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1344|
1342 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1342|
1340 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1340|
1338 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1338|
1336 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1336|
1334 | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | |X|O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1334|
1332 | | | | | | | |X| |X|O|X| | | |X|O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1332|
1330 X| | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O| | |X|O| | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1330|
1328 X|O| | |X| |X| |X|O|X|O|X|O|X| |X|O| | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1328|
1326 X|O|X| |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|5|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1326|
1324 X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1324|
1322 X|O|X|O|X|O|4|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| |O| | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | 1322|
1320 X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | |O| | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | 1320|
1318 X|O| |O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | |O| | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | 1318|
1316 X| | |O|X|O| |O|X|O|X| | | | | | |O| | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | 1316|
1314 X| | |O|X| | |O| |O|X| | | | | |•|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | 1314|
1312 X| | |O| | | | | |O|X| | | | |•| |O|X| | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | 1312|
1310 X| | | | | | | | |O|X| | | |•| | |O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | 1310|
1308 X| | |

Jun 29, 2006 5:23 AM

Steve Madigan :

I was just looking over a few charts and noticed that GLD has reversed back into O's. Could we see a test of the trendline at 54.5? Who know's...
Right now it is bid at 57.85. Slightly higher than yesterday's close...
If we were to get a print of 59.5 from here, that would be a buy signal and possibly a good opportunity to get in. Might see a rally from there to the Mid of the 10 week trading band at 63-64 area.
Will just have to wait and see how it plays out.
Here is the chart.
GLD w/ .5 chart
<pre> 
74.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |74.0
73.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |73.5|
73.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |73.0|
72.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |72.5|
72.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |72.0|
71.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |71.5|
71.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |71.0|
70.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |70.5|
70.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X|O|X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |70.0|
69.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |69.5|
69.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |69.0|
68.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |68.5|
68.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |68.0|
67.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X|O| |O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |67.5|
67.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X| | |O|X| | | | | | | | | | | | | |67.0|
66.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X| | |O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | |66.5|
66.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X| | |O|X|O|X| | | | | | | | | | | |66.0|
65.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |5| | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | |65.5|
65.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X| | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | |65.0|
64.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X| | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | |64.5|
64.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X| | |O| |O|X|O|X| | | | | | | | | |64.0|
63.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | |X| |X| | | | |O| |6|X|O| | | | | | |Med|63.5|
63.0

Jun 29, 2006 10:25 AM

Steve Madigan :

This a test to see if the charts work...
<A href=http://208.149.108.58/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1U60NK2QC D.N&symbol=cat|.5&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart>C aterpillar, Inc. (CAT)
</a>beartoes, I hope this works.

Jun 29, 2006 10:35 AM

Im Smile :

beartoes,

nice charts, I like better than the links I posted on the intel thread.

Jun 29, 2006 10:57 AM

Im Smile :

Beartoes,

As though we did not know this before, it really shows how dramatic scale impacts these charts

I just did Intel and look at the .5 vs the traditional in the price objective as well as the resulting charts.

<a href="http://206.155.168.124/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1U 60NK2QCD.N&symbol=intc|.5&type=TREND&country=&source=showch art" target="_TOP"> Intel 0.5x3 PnF</a>

Bearish Price Obj: 17.00 Bearish Reward to Risk 0.58

vs...

<a href="http://208.149.108.72/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1U 60NK2QCD.N&symbol=INTC&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart " target="_TOP"> Intel 1x3 traditional PnF</a>

Bearish Price Obj: 10.00 Bearish Reward to Risk 2.59

It really points up how important the scale you use is to the resulting price objective and the resulting chart results.

I like all the data analysis these charts provide also ie. reward risk , and colors are really nice.

Great job Beartoes!

Jun 29, 2006 11:08 AM

Steve Madigan :

What I really find fascinating is the .5 chart price objective was done off of the sell in Aug 2005. 28-11=17. Amazing, hit it right on the nose and then reversed up into X's.
<A href=http://206.155.168.118/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1U60NK2Q CD.N&symbol=intc|.5&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart> ;INTC on .5 Scale</a>beartoes

Jun 29, 2006 11:50 AM

Im Smile :

yup.

These charts helped a lot on my last buy at 16.75.

Jun 29, 2006 1:08 PM

I just ran INTC on this program; it's projecting a bottom of 10!

(I think maybe I'll buy around there!)

______________
The content of any message or post by normxxx anywhere on this site is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. Such is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should always consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

Jun 29, 2006 1:34 PM

Steve Madigan :

Lets take a look at Carrier Access Corp (CACS) and see what we got.Here is the default chart for CACS.<A href=http://206.155.168.120/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1U60NK2Q CD.N&symbol=CACS&source=showchart&type=TREND&am p;country=&amp>CACS default chart</a>As you can see from the chart the overall trend of the chart is negative. When it broke down over the red trendline it went negative. It has rallied here of late, starting in Dec 2005.Now if we take a look at the .25 chart. <pre> 16.00 | | | 16.00
15.75 | | | 15.75
15.50 | | | 15.50
15.25 | • | | 15.25
15.00 |-X-•-------------------------------|-------------|--------------- 15.00
14.75 | X O • | | 14.75
14.50 | X O • | | 14.50
14.25 | X O • | | 14.25
14.00 | X O • | | 14.00
13.75 | X O • | | 13.75
13.50 | X O X • | | 13.50
13.25 | X O X O • | | 13.25
13.00 | X O X O • | | 13.00
12.75 | X O O • | | 12.75
12.50 | 7 O • | | 12.50
12.25 | X • O • | | 12.25
12.00 | X • O • | | 12.00
11.75 O • O • | | 11.75
11.50 • O • | | 11.50
11.25 | O • | | 11.25
11.00 | O • | 11.00
10.75 | O X | • | 10.75
10.50 | O X O • | 10.50
10

Jun 29, 2006 2:08 PM

Im Smile :

already discussed http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/29-38#message_5

scale is important for PnF

but you may get your chance if INTC decides to do a 7:1 split.

Jun 29, 2006 2:54 PM

stocktiger :

7:1 INTC split? Ok Smile time to share those brownies you are eating. Obviously you are kidding and still predicting a AMD crossover at 20. Time will tell.

I know some overseas Intel folks are coming to the USA for training but I'll let you guess which country they are training for (new Fab).

PF chart still questionable and I trust BearToes analysis. We'll see how this shakes out, if it hits 13 I'm buying some.

Jun 29, 2006 7:46 PM

Im Smile :

if it is training on 65nm they must be from Ireland (new Fab) just a guess.

about half of Intel's production now is 65nm

I was at an apple store the other day and all the machines had Intel dual core. Nice looking lap machines. Merom should be out soon.

I hope you are able to buy some at 13, but I have a hunch you will only have an opportunity to buy AMD at 13 :)

Jun 30, 2006 5:24 AM

Steve Madigan :

We are seeing some improvement in the crude charts. The first chart is NYMEX Crude Oil (CRUDE). As you can see from the chart we have the reversal back into X's. It held the 69 level and has now turned up and we need a print of 73 for a double top buy <A href=http://208.149.108.6/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1U70EXO4ZC .N&symbol=crude|1&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart>N YMEX Crude Oil (CRUDE) default </a> The Crude Oil Continuous (CL/) chart takes the front month contract and adds it to the chart, so it is like a running total. This chart is showing signs of strength, with the triple top break at 73.5. Here is the chart. <A href=http://208.149.108.62/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1U70EXO4 ZC.N&symbol=CL/&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart>Cru de Oil Continuous (CL/) default</a> Demand seems to be in control of this chart. Weekly momentum has turned positive also.
If I take a look at the Crude Oil Continuous (CL/) chart on the 1 pt scale we can see that a print of 74 would give a triple top break and turn this chart into where demand is also in control. <A href=http://208.149.108.62/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1U70EXO4 ZC.N&symbol=cl/|1&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart>C rude Oil Continuous (CL/) 1 pt. chart</a> So let's see what happens and if we get that 74 print today. The price objective of the CL/ default chart is 84, so you can see we have got some room to move to the upside. It certainly seems that demand is starting to come back into the picture. We could be seeing much higher crude prices over the summer as well as higher gas prices due to this.

Jun 30, 2006 5:40 AM

Steve Madigan :

Just wanted to show you the chart for the spiral trading, so you can see where we are.
Here is the chart. <A href=http://208.149.108.58/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1U70EXO4Z C.N&symbol=sp/u6|5&type=TREND&country=&source=none>S& ;P 500 Sept. 06 (SP/U6) 5 pt chart </a> This 5 point chart slows it down a bit to see the different support/resistence area's. 1285 will put it right on the bearish risistence line and a print of 1290 would move this option to higher ground, putting demand clearly in control. Everyone has been waiting for the tripe top break and we finally got it yesterday. We are still not out of the woods. The above numbers are critical. 1290 would move the option right to the middle of the trading band. Let's see what happens over the next week.

Jun 30, 2006 7:45 AM

stocktiger :

Hey Smile, kind of wish I would have bought in the 16's but who really knows. I'm definetly not buying in now, suspect when Intel announces their plans publicly the price will bounce up ST. You should realize a nice return.

The training I referred to was for Israelis but I'm sure some Irish will be involved as well. Since both countries have significantly lower salaries (and no EPA), LT this is not good for USA workers.

Jul 5, 2006 5:19 AM

Steve Madigan :

I use the Bullish % as my main guide. NYSEBP is the main coach. This has just reversed back into X's along with the OPTIONABLEBP is back in X's also. The one that is having the problem is the OTCBP and it is not even close to switching back into X's. SPXBP is in X's too. So the thing to do is right now stay away from tech...until the OTCBP flips back to X's. Here are the charts:
<A href=http://206.155.168.122/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UC0GZDC ZC.N&symbol=BPNYSE>NYSE BP</a> 
<A href=http://206.155.168.118/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UC0HDO HXY.N&symbol=BPOPTI>OPTIONABLE BP</a> 
<A href=http://206.155.168.118/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UC0HDO HXY.N&symbol=BPSPX>SPX BP</a> 
<A href=http://206.155.168.118/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UC0HDO HXY.N&symbol=BPOTC>OTC BP</a> Now the question is where is the market going to go from here? That is a good question...one that I don't have the answer for. But what I do know is the risk is less today than it was a week ago and some of my cash that has been waiting is now heading back into the markets, due to the BP's being in X's. Can these change back to O's as fast? You bet they can and when they do I will head back to cash. But until then, trust your indicators and move forward... Don't forget...What is...is I don't try to predict the indicators, I just follow what they tell me. <a href= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1>Beartoes</a&g t; <script type="text/javascript" src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/js/counter.js?site=s25PnFCharts"&g t;</script><noscript><a href="http://s25.sitemeter.com/stats.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" target="_top"><img src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/meter.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" alt="Site Meter" border="0"/></a></noscript>

Jul 5, 2006 9:13 AM

Steve Madigan :

I saw RMBS up today and it caught my attention. I checked the charts and it came down and hit right on the trendline and bounced right off. RS stinks which is understandable coming down from the highs to where it is now. It is starting to stabilize a bit now. But that trend chart is interesting. Here it is...
<A href=http://208.149.108.62/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UC0HDOHX Y.N&symbol=RMBS&source=showchart&type=TREND&amp >RMBS default chart</a> I guess you could play this one with some options and stop out at 19.5 which would create a sell as well as break that trendline. Just thought I would show this, found it interesting...
<a href= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1>Beartoes</a&g t; 
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Jul 5, 2006 6:02 PM

Tim Trainor :

I was going to ask you to run a PNF on RMBS, as this is one I've traded since 1999, mostly profitably. I rebought recently at an avg price of 21.75, and am trying to decide where to start taking profits. If the market rallies, I expect this one to return to the 30 plus area.
I bought on the idea that we had reached a 60% retracement of the recent highs, and used only "gambling money", <1% of portfolio.

Jul 5, 2006 6:19 PM

Steve Madigan :

I was looking over a few charts of stocks that were on the move today in the down market and Genentech, Inc. (DNA) caught my eye. I thought I would share with you what I found. Maybe it will fit into your portfolio since the offense is on the field and putting cash to work now is the right thing to do. With that in mind maybe Genentech, Inc. (DNA) will be a fit for you.First the sector of BIOM is unfavored. Short term indicators for the sector have reversed back to positive (10,30,Momentum), but the BP is still in O's but improving and has a way to go before it changes to X's. So that is a negative for sure but the stock is performing better than its peers with PEER RS in X's. Momentum for the stock has turned positive for about 2 weeks now. Earning are due out on 7/11/06, and who knows how the stock will react. Your guess is as good as mine. Good earnings and the stock goes down, good earnings and the stock goes up, bad earnings and the stock goes up, bad earnings and the stock goes down. Will have to wait and see on that one.We do have good support at the 76 level as you will see. The stock has been trading from 76 to 83 for a couple of months and has just broke out from that range. Lets look at the charts: <A href=http://206.155.168.120/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UC0HDOH XY.N&symbol=dna|.5&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart> .5 DNA chart</a> 
<A href=http://208.149.108.62/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UC0HDOH XY.N&symbol=DNA&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart>Def ault DNA chart</a> 
<A href=http://206.155.168.122/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UC0HDO HXY.N&symbol=dna|2&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart> 2 pt DNA chart</a> As you can see on the 2 pt chart the break at 84 giving the buy signal was a nice move today. Stop out at 74 which would be a triple bottom break on 2 pt chart. Stop at 75 on default chart. Price objective is 102 on the 2 pt chart RS chart DNA vs SPXEWI 
<pre>
6.600 | | | | 6.600
6.392 | | | | 6.392
6.191 | | | | 6.191
5.996 | | | | 5.996
5.807 | | | X B | 5.807
5.624 | | | 8 O A O 5.624
5.447 | | | 7 O X O 5.447
5.276 | | | 6 9 X 1 5.276
5.110 | | | X O O 5.110
4.949 | |

Jul 6, 2006 6:18 AM

Lcha :

Beartoes, whenever I click on one of your PnF links I get a page that says, "You've been bumped". Basically denied access. Just a heads up.

Jul 6, 2006 6:19 AM

Steve Madigan :

I was looking for a Gold play other than the Ishare GLD and came accross Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX). Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) came right down to the trendline during the retreat of Gold. No breakdown, which is great. Right now it is just at the mid of the 10 week band and in X's, ready to go... Weekly momentum has been negative for 7 weeks and it usually stays P/N for 6-8 weeks. 31.67 will flip it to positive. The chart looks good also. Like I said before following the trendline to the money and the trendline has been in effect since 8/04 so it is a nice long term trend. Lets take a look at the chart.
<A href=http://206.155.168.120/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UD0FYC8 67.N&symbol=ABX&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart>Def ault ABX chart</a>
<A href=http://206.155.168.120/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UD0FYC 867.N&symbol=ABX&source=showchart&type=rs&country=&user num=>RS chart ABX vs SPXEWI</a> So you can see that this looks pretty good. RS positive and trend chart positive. All systems go... Hope you enjoyed and maybe this will fit into your portfolio.

Jul 7, 2006 3:31 AM

Steve Madigan :

Icha, thanks. That is what was happening to me also. I had one of my buddies stocktiger check and he said it was ok. But I just checked again and I was bumped. Thanks for the heads up. Will have to figure something else out on how to post the charts.
thanks again icha
beartoes

Jul 7, 2006 3:46 AM

Steve Madigan :

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=DNA,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][ F1!3!.5!!2!20]&pref=G>dna chart</a> If someone could let me know if they can read the above chart, it would be greatly appreciated...
Thanks

Jul 7, 2006 6:54 AM

Lcha :

Yes, I could read the chart.

Jul 7, 2006 7:06 AM

Steve Madigan :

It looks like we have an uh-oh, with a reversal on the .25 chart. Take a look...
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=INTC,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!.25!!2!20]&pref=G>INTC .25 chart</a> And it ain't looking to good for AMD...Take a look.. <A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=amd,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!0.25!!2!20]&pref=G>AMD .25 chart</a> Broke support on the default chart at 23... <A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=AMD,PLTADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G>AMD default chart</a> Just a quick take....

Jul 8, 2006 11:33 PM

Im Smile :

I just saw this tonight for the first time. Prior to this everytime I pulled a chart on AMD the PO was above 20.

The bearish PO has broken 20:

<a href="http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/Pnf.asp?S=amd&Y=U&B=.5& ;N=A&C=2" target="_TOP"> AMD PnF .5 PO 18</a>

Bearish Price Obj. (Revised): 18.00
P&F Pattern: Descending Triple Bottom Breakdown

Did I mention AMD insiders dumped big time:

AMD Insider Purchases - Last 6 Months
<table border>
<tr><th>NET SHARE ACTIVITY</th><th>Shares</th><th>Transaction</th ></tr>
<tr><td>Purchases</td><td align="center">N/A</td><td align="center">0</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sales</td><td align="center">878,771</td><td align="center">54</td></tr>
<tr><td>Net Shares Purch (Sold)</td><td align="center">(878,771)</td><td align="center">54</td></tr>
<tr><td>Total Insider Shares Held</td><td align="center">556.72K</td><td align="center">N/A</td></tr>
<tr><td>% Net Shares Purch (Sold)</td><td align="center">(61.2%)</td><td align="center">N/A</td></tr>
</table>

_____________________

I agree with you on Intel, if Intel stumbles on these new rollouts and blows the opportunity for headcount reduction & dumping nonprofitable units Ortellini and crew will be further down the toilet along with intel stock price.

Jul 9, 2006 7:48 PM

Steve Madigan :

I was looking over the SPX chart and on the 5 pt chart it looks like it is setting up for what is called a bullish catapult formation. This happen when a triple top is broken and then it reverses back into O's (which is where it is now) and on the reversal back into X's is when the catapult starts. When the catapult exceeds the previous col. of X's the catapult is complete. This is a very powerful formation and highly successful if it occurs. We will just have to wait and see.
<pre> 
1,345.00 | | | 1,345.00
1,340.00 | | | 1,340.00
1,335.00 | | | 1,335.00
1,330.00 | | + | 1,330.00
1,325.00 | | X + | 1,325.00
1,320.00 | | 5 O + | 1,320.00
1,315.00 | | X X O + | 1,315.00
1,310.00 | | X X X X O X O + | 1,310.00
1,305.00 | | X O X O X O X O X O + | 1,305.00
1,300.00 | | X O X O 4 O X O O + | 1,300.00
1,295.00 | | X X X O O O X + O + | 1,295.00
1,290.00 | X X O X O X O X + O X + | 1,290.00
1,285.00 | X O X X O 3 O X O + O X O + | 1,285.00
1,280.00 | X O X 2 X O O X + + O X X O + 7 | 1,280.00
1,275.00 | X O X O X O X + O X O X O + X O | 1,275.00
1,270.00 | X O X O X X O + O X X O X O X + X O | 1,270.00
1,265.00 | X O X O X O X + O X O X O 6 O X O + X O | 1,265.00<
1,260.00 | X O O X O X + O X O X O O X O X + X | 1,260.00
1,255.00 | 1 O O + O O X O O X O X X + X | 1,255.00
1,

Jul 17, 2006 6:31 AM

Steve Madigan :

The bullish catapult that I had mentioned above has been voided, due to the fact that the 5 pt chart has broken the bullish support line and is now again in a negative trend.Here is the chart <A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SPX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!5!!2!20]&pref=G>5 pt SPX chart</a>

Jul 17, 2006 7:09 AM

Steve Madigan :

I have been out of town for the last week at the Jr. world golf championships with my son, who finished tied for 7th out of 186 of the best boys golfer 15-17 in the world.Coming back, I had a bunch of charts to update and to my surprise, I found some interesting info.I track 40 sectors with various indicators for each sector, both long and short term indicators. Now the short term indicators definitely show that we are due for a bounce. But the longer term indicators, I would have thought would have fallen out of bed and they didn't. The BP's gained 1 last week from the week before and the PT's remained the same (positive trend-stocks trading above their bullish support line).Let me show you the data. The first line is the weekly date, next are the number of sector who's BP is in X's, next is the number of sector's who's PT are in X's, then the sectors who's 10 weeks are in X's and finally the number of sectors who's 30 weeks are in X's. As you can see from the last 2 lines we are due for a bounce with the oversold condition of the 10w and the 30w. But what was interesting is the line under the date the BP's gained and X over the week before and the next line the PT remained steady at 5.Here let me show you.
060609 060616 060623 060630 060707 060714
2.0 2.0 4.0 10.0 12.0 13.0
8.0 2.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 5.0
4.0 20.0 26.0 39.0 17.0 2.0
3.0 24.0 18.0 38.0 28.0 0.0
I thought this was interesting in that as bad as the markets performed last week, I would have thought that the above data would have shown a decline, but it didn't. So what does it all mean.What it says to me is that if you are in the right sectors you can make some $$. There are some sectors out there that are moving higher. I am sure you can guess which ones those are. I thought this was interesting and thought I would share it with you. I hoped you found it interesting as I did. I am not sure how to get the columns to line up with the dates so you are just going to have to shift them over as you read it, sorry...

Jul 19, 2006 5:21 AM

Steve Madigan :

As I wrote the above the other day, the bp's and pt's were hanging tough...But not anymore...bps from 13 to now 8 and pts from 5 to 3 currently. Also the Optionable bp has reversed back into O's, not a good thing I assure you.risk is the market has been ratcheted up with these reversals and $$$ Cash should be king for a while.The NYSE bp has not reversed into O's yet, but is very close and one more down day and we should see that happen. The Hi/low indicators have also reversed into O's matching the 10w in O's already.Chances of seeing lower prices a head is highly likely. I will keep you posted of any changes

Jul 19, 2006 5:54 AM

Steve Madigan :

Crude has sure been taking a hit of late. Is this normal or due to the ME stuff going on. Lets see if the charts can shed any light on this.I tried to find this chart on stockcharts.com and had no success, so I will just paste it here. As you can see from the chart, crude spiked straight up to 77 which was the top of the trading band. It makes sense to see a pull back from there. Coming back to the 71 area as long as we don't break the 69 support seems to be quite normal (statistical). Here is the chart:

81 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 81
80 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 80|
79 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 79|
78 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 78|
77 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | TOp|77|
76 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | 76|
75 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | 75|
74 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | |X| | | | | |7| | | | | | | 74|
73 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | |X| |X|O|X| | | |X| | | | | | | 73|
72 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | |X|O|5|O|X|O|X| |X| | | | | | | 72|
71 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X| | | | | Med|71|
70 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | |X|O|X|O| |O|X|O|X| | | | | | | 70|
69 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | ||| | | |X|O| | | |O| |6| | | | | | | | 69|
68 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | |X| | | |4| | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | 68|
67 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X| | | |X|O| | |X| | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | 67|
66 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | |X|9|X|O| | |X|O| | |X| | | | | |•| | | | | | | BOt|66|
65 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O| | |X|2| | |X| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | 65|
64 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| |A| | |X|O| | |X| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | 64|
63 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | |X| | |O| | |X|O|3| |X| | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | 63|
62 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | |X| | |O| | |1|O|X|O|X| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | 62|
61 | | | | || | | | | | | | | |X| |8| | |O|X| |X|O|X|O|X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 61|
60 | | | | || | | | | | | |X| |7|O|X| | |O|C|O|X|O|X|O|•| | | | | | |

Jul 19, 2006 4:36 PM

Steve Madigan :

Kirk, sorry for the delay in answering your above question.The only way we would get a new objective (bullish) would be if we get a buy signal at the 1285 level. That would then give us a new bullish price objective (approx 1340) would be my estimate...<a href= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1>Beartoes</a> ;

Jul 19, 2006 4:54 PM

Steve Madigan :

Well, since the bullish catapult got nulled when it broke the bullish support line, we have the possibility of a bearish catapult. In the SPX looking at the 5 point chart. We can see the triple bottom sell at 1235 for the index and 1245 for the Sept SPX... As long as we don't break the bearish resistance line at 1285 for the Sept and the 1280 level for the index, we have the chance for it on the next reversal down. A majority of the time when this occurs they are powerful moves that can take these much lower.Just an observation. Will have to wait and see if it happens. If the above limits are exceeded the pattern is nulled and all bets are off...Here are the charts...
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SPX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!5.0!!2!20]&pref=G>SPX 5 point chart</a>
SPX SEPT 5 point chart

1360 | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1360
1355 | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1355|
1350 | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1350|
1345 | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1345|
1340 | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1340|
1335 | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | |X| |5|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1335|
1330 | | | | | || | | | | | | |X| |4| |X|O|X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1330|
1325 | | | | | || | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1325|
1320 | | | | | || | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1320|
1315 | | | | | X| | | | | |X| |X|O| |O|X|O| |O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1315|
1310 | | | | | X|O|X| | | |X|O|X| | |O|X| | |O| | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1310|
1305 | | | | | X|O|X|O| | |X|O|X| | |O|X| |•|O| | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | 1305|
1300 | X| |X| |X|O|X|O| | |X|3|X| | |O| |•| |O| | |X| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | 1300|
1295 | C|O|X|O|X|O|X|2|X| |X|O| | | | |•| | |O| | |X|O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | 1295|
1290 O|X|O|X|O|1|O|X|O|X|O|X| | | | |•| | | |O|X| |X|O| | | | | |•|•| | | | | | | | | 1290|
1285 O|X|O| |O|X|O| |O|X|O|X| | | |•| | | | |O|X|O|6|O| | | | | | |X|•| | | | | | | | 1285|
1280 O| | | |O|X| | |O| |O| | | |•| | | | | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | |X|O|•| | | | | | | 1280|
1275 | | | | O||| | | | | | | |•| | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | |X|O| | | |

Jul 20, 2006 5:00 AM

Steve Madigan :

Looks like the 10700 is a pretty good support area. It has held 3 times now. This time it reversed right off of it and the bullish support line. This is using the 100 point per box scale... Here take a look...
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$INDU,PLUADANRBO[PA][D ][F1!3!100!!2!20]&pref=G>DJIA 100 point scale</a> Lets see if we can sustain some kind of rally... <a href= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1>Beartoes</a&g t; <script type="text/javascript" src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/js/counter.js?site=s25PnFCharts"&g t;</script><noscript><a href="http://s25.sitemeter.com/stats.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" target="_top"><img src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/meter.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" alt="Site Meter" border="0"/></a></noscript>

Jul 20, 2006 6:11 AM

Steve Madigan :

I was just looking at some charts this morning and the SOX caught my eye. Had not been doing very good, but has now pulled right back to the trendline...This could find support all the way down to 360, but the trendline is right at 400 where it is now.With the NASD so crappy, it is hard to decide what to do here. Maybe a long call might be in order...The earnings for the tech's are ok, some good, some bad, so this is a tough decision. Here take a look for yourself...
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SOX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!20!!2!20]&pref=G>SOX 20 point scale</a> Interesting huh... Don't forget that trendline is 3-4 years old. Should be pretty powerful. If it breaks then we are in for trouble in the Tech sector... <a href= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1>Beartoes</a&g t; <script type="text/javascript" src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/js/counter.js?site=s25PnFCharts"&g t;</script><noscript><a href="http://s25.sitemeter.com/stats.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" target="_top"><img src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/meter.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" alt="Site Meter" border="0"/></a></noscript>

Jul 21, 2006 6:44 AM

Steve Madigan :

Yesterday in the semi cap equip discussion, I had mentioned that a break at 40 could be a costly mistake and should carry the stock lower.Well it looks like that is happening. Lrcx is heading lower today early in the trading session. I cold see this heading down to the 32 area, but first stop could be at the bottom of the trading band at 36.Will just have to wait and see.Here is the chart...
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=LRCX,P&listNum=>LRC X default chart</a> I did get in on the put option at 40 which has a nice profit already... <a href= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1>Beartoes</a&g t;<script type="text/javascript" src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/js/counter.js?site=s25PnFCharts"&g t;</script><noscript><a href="http://s25.sitemeter.com/stats.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" target="_top"><img src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/meter.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" alt="Site Meter" border="0"/></a></noscript>

Jul 21, 2006 9:41 AM

Steve Madigan :

Looking at the default chart of GOOG, it appears that it may have found support at the 380 level for the time being...A print of 376 would, I would guess much lower. Possibly to the 360 area which is the support trend line?
Check out the chart. Could we rally off of the 380 and continue with the GOOG up trend? We will have to wait and see. <A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=GOOG,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!4.0!!2!20]&pref=G>GOOG 4 point (default) chart</a> <a href= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1>Beartoes</a&g t;<script type="text/javascript" src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/js/counter.js?site=s25PnFCharts"&g t;</script><noscript><a href="http://s25.sitemeter.com/stats.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" target="_top"><img src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/meter.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" alt="Site Meter" border="0"/></a></noscript>

Jul 22, 2006 12:31 PM

Steve Madigan :

With everything looking pretty bleak last week, I thought I would take a look at GLD again.Looking at the .5 chart, we see the high in May of 72, then the drop in June to 55.5, which almost hit the bullish support line, then the most recent rally and now the most current pullback. Will the pullback continue?? Good question...Let's try to figure that question out. Looking at the 1 point chart which is slowing the chart down, we see the same things as above and also this...Each new rally since the May high has made a lower high and now we are heading down again and could we make a lower low. We will see. If it does, chances are that we could see a test of the bullish support line before it is all over.That could take GLD down to the 52 area.Here are the chart.
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=GLD,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][ F1!3!.5!!2!20]&pref=G>GLD .5 point chart (default)</a>
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=GLD,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!1!!2!20]&pref=G>GLD 1 point chart</a> RS is currently negative also. So we will just have to wait and see how this turns out. I have been wrong in the past and will probably be wrong in the future again, so lets see what happens. I have no GLD holdings at this time and until the charts start to show a definitive pattern, I think I will keep it that way for a while.Right now the trend is still positive.

Jul 22, 2006 6:28 PM

Steve Madigan :

I see that on the 5 point chart the price objective of 385 has been met. The price objective is just a guage of how far something might fall measuring from a sell signal. We are also all the way down to the bottom of the trading band of 380. The weekly distribution for the SEMI sector is at a 52% oversold position right now. Not at its lowest level but close. If I look at the 10 point chart the price objective has been exceeded past the 420 PO. The default chart of 20 points is right on the bullish trend line at 400. A print of 380 as mentioned in one of my previous post would not be good. The PO for the 20 point chart is 240 which is the low almost of 2002. Man that could get ugly...Look what happened the last time this bullish trend line was broken in 2002, it never looked back until it was in the basement. Hopefully this won't happen this time, but....who knows.The RS vs the SPXEWI just added another O for another sell signal and that is a really ugly chart.With the NASD in the toilet (all be it the SOX is not helping), we could see lower prices. You don't want any tech issues right now. Looks really bad for the sox.We could see a little rally in around now due to the enormously oversold position it is in. So that would not be out of the question for next week. That might be a good time to sell out of some positions you have and maybe short the index (SOX) when it completes its up leg and take if for a ride probably through the BSL. But who knows. What is..is..So we will just have to wait and see how it turns out. The markets are pretty vulnerable right now.Lets take a look at all the charts mentioned above and you can make the decision...
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SOX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!5!!2!20]&pref=G>SOX 5 point chart</a>
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SOX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D ][F1!3!10.0!!2!20]&pref=G>SOX 10 point chart</a>
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SOX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D ][F1!3!20.0!!2!20]&pref=G>SOX 20 point chart (default)</a>
RS chart SOX vs SPXEWI

135.9156 | | | | | || | | ||| | | ****||| | | | | | | | 135.9156
127.6203 | | | | | || | | ||| | | ****||| | | | | | | | 127.6203|
119.8313 | | | | | || | | ||| | | ****||| | | | | | | | 119.8313|
112.5176 | | | | | || | | ||| | | ****||| | | | | | | | 112.5176|
105.6504 | X| | | ||| | | ||| | | ****||| | | | | | | | 105.6504|
99.2022 | X|O| | ||| | | ||| | | ****||| | | | | | | |

Jul 22, 2006 6:36 PM

Steve Madigan :

I had talked about this one earlier also in a prior post. The bearish catapult for the SPX has begun when the chart reversed to O's this past week. Not a good thing I assure you. Let's see if it carries through. The catapult will be completed when a print of 1220 happens. Typically this pattern will carry through that point and continue to head lower. Let's just wait and see. Here is the chart again:
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SPX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!5!!2!20]&pref=G>SPX 5 point chart</a>
Have a good one.

Jul 24, 2006 10:08 AM

Steve Madigan :

I was just checking the chart for the s&p mini and it looks like 1272 would give us a new buy signal, according to the chart. That would also break the trendline that dates back to May. Looks like it came right up to 1264 print and did not give us the 1268 print yet...
Here is the chart...

S&P Sept Mini


1356 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1356
1352 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1352|
1348 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1348|
1344 || | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1344|
1340 || | | | | | | | | | | |X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1340|
1336 || | | | | |•| | | | | |X|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1336|
1332 || | | | | |X|•|X| |X| |X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1332|
1328 •| |X| |4| |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1328|
1324 X|•|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1324|
1320 X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|5| |O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1320|
1316 X|O|X|O|•|O|•|O|X|O|X| |•|O| | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1316|
1312 ||O|•|•| |•| |O|X|O| |•| |O|X| | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1312|
1308 ||•| | | | | |O|X| |•| | |O|X|O| | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1308|
1304 || | | | | | |O|X|•| | | |O|X|O| | |X| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1304|
1300 || | | | | | |O|•| | | | |O| |O| | |X|O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1300|
1296 || | | | | | |•| | | | | | | |O| | |X|O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | |1296|
1292 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O|X| |X|O| | | | | |•|•| | | | | | | | | | | |1292|
1288 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | |7|•| | | | | | | | | | |1288|
1284 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | |X|O|•| | | | | | | | | |1284|
1280 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|6|O| | | | | | |X|O|X|•| | | | | | | | |1280|
1276 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | |X|O|X|O|•| | | | | | | |1276|
1272 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O|X| | | | | |X|O|X|O| |•| | | | | | |1272|
1268 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O| |O|X|O|X| | | |X|O| |O|X| | | | | |Med|1268|
1264 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O| | | |O|X|O|X|O|X| |X| | |O|X|O| | | | | | |1264|
1260 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X| | |O|X|O|

Jul 24, 2006 11:33 AM

Lcha :

Beartoes, what call letters are you using to get the S&P Sept e-mini chart?

Thanks.

Jul 24, 2006 12:12 PM

Steve Madigan :

I do it through Dorsey Wright.com, not through stockcharts.
beartoes

Jul 24, 2006 1:05 PM

Steve Madigan :

Well it looks like GOOG held that 380 level today and rallied off of it to reverse into X's again. Can the up trend continue. Time will tell.here is the chart
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=GOOG,P&listNum=>GOO G default chart</a> So if you wanted to play it, now would be ok since the stop is so close and use the 376 print for the stop. Let's see what happens. Today there were several different times that you could have picked this up for under 385. The closer to 380 the better.<a href= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1>Beartoes</a&g t;<script type="text/javascript" src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/js/counter.js?site=s25PnFCharts"&g t;</script><noscript><a href="http://s25.sitemeter.com/stats.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" target="_top"><img src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/meter.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" alt="Site Meter" border="0"/></a></noscript>

Jul 24, 2006 3:36 PM

Steve Madigan :

I am not sure if you have been following the spiral trading thread, but this post in a reference to that thread. It is quite interesting if you wanted to check it out. Now that the spiral is pointing higher and we are now in a long position, this is what I would love to confirm the spiral. Check this out and see if it makes sense to all of you.Today we crossed and closed above the 1266.9 level to put us in a new long position. Looking at the SPX SEPT chart, I would love to see a print of 1270 on the default chart. On the longer term chart I would love to see a print of 1275. 1270 would put us right on the trend line at 1270, even though that would be a buy signal.When we see the print of 1270, I could see some trouble getting through the 1288 level which is the bearish resistance line on the default chart. Here are those 2 charts:S&P 500 SEPT 06 default chart
<pre>
1350 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1350
1348 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1348|
1346 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1346|
1344 | | | | | •| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1344|
1342 | | | | | X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1342|
1340 | | | | | X|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1340|
1338 | | | | | X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1338|
1336 | | | | | X|O| | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1336|
1334 | | | | | X|O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1334|
1332 O|X| | | |X|O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1332|
1330 O|X|O| | |X|O| | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1330|
1328 O|X|O|X| |X|O| | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1328|
1326 O|X|5|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1326|
1324 O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1324|
1322 O|X|O|X|O| |O| | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1322|
1320 O|X|O| | | |O| | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1320|
1318 O| | | | | |O| | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | |

Jul 25, 2006 5:59 AM

Steve Madigan :

Good question Kirk...Lets take a look and see what we see...seePFE has been a hurting unit for years now. If you had money invested in this one you would not be a happy camper. But...since it bottomed in Dec 2005 it has seen a rise with higher bottoms and higher tops. It broke out in Feb and changed the trend to finally positive on the 1/2 point chart. The default chart is still negative. Weekly momentum just turned positive, but the RS stinks. <A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=PFE,P&listNum=>PFE default chart</a><A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=PFE,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][ F1!3!.5!!2!20]&pref=G >PFE 1/2 point chart</a> SGP since the low in 2003, SGP has been moving higher but get stuck when it hits the 21 level which is also the top of the trading band. This needs to see a breakout to 23 for any real chance of an upward move. Weekly momentum is also positive, but again the RS stinks. <A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=SGP,PLTADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G >SGP default chart</a> MRK is up almost 50% since its low in Oct 2005 and continues to move higher. We have a bearish resistance line coming up at the 40 level which should slow this down. Also getting close to the top of the 10 week trading band. This one may not be bad if you could pick it up on a pull back to the 35-36 area which would be the middle of the trading band. RS on this one is positive. Another note worthy item is the RS for MRK is 1 box from giving a buy signal in over 5 years. When this were to happen that would be a clear winner for the stock. The other 2 are not even close...When I compare each one to each other, MRK is the clear winner, so if I had to chose one, MRK would be it. <A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=mrk,PLTADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G >MRK default chart</a> Hope this helps.

Jul 28, 2006 5:11 AM

Steve Madigan :

As everyone has been aware, oil and oil service has been the place to be over the past years. Much money has been made in these two sectors. The oil area is showing a positive divergence.Especially these two stocks.CVX and XOM.After a huge run in 2003-2004 these two stocks have done nothing, until now. There are breaking out of huge base that are a year to a year and a half.You might want to keep an eye on these for some pullbacks with price targets of 82 and 87, there is plenty of room left. RS is positive and improving all the time.Here are the charts for you to make your own decision:
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=XOM,P&listNum=>XOM default chart</a>
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=cvx,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][ F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G>CVX default chart</a> Have a great day<a href= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1>Beartoes</a&g t;

Jul 29, 2006 6:17 AM

Steve Madigan :

Hello to all,A couple of days ago we were discussing MRK and how the stock was performing better than PFE and SGP.Well good news for MRK. Finally after years of poor performance the Relative strength vs SPXEWI has switched to a BUY signal. Things are looking up for MRK. You should see MRK out perform the broader equal weight index in the near term. Relatively speaking. Don't forget there is a big difference between ABSOLUTE performance and RELATIVE performance. Big difference. But all in all things are looking better for MRK. Now it would be nice to see a little pull back to the high 30's and get on board the MRK train. Who knows it could leave the station (which it has done well of late) with out us if we wait for the pullback. I personally don't like to buy things that are up on stems in this market environment, so I am going to wait just a bit and see if it won't come back a little. The bullish price target for MRK is 59, so there still is some room left for this to move.Here is the chart of MRK as well as the RS chart to match. Looks pretty good.
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=MRK,P&listNum=>MRK default chart</a>
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=MRK,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][ F1!3!.5!!2!20]&pref=G >MRK 1/2 point chart</a>
RS chart MRK vs SPXEWI

9.6513 | || ||| | ||| | | ||| ||| ****| ||| | | | | | | 9.6513
9.0623 | || ||| | ||| | | ||| ||| ****| ||| | | | | | | 9.0623|
8.5092 | || ||| | ||| | | ||| ||| ****| ||| | | | | | | 8.5092|
7.9898 | || ||| | ||| | | ||| ||| ****| ||| | | | | | | 7.9898|
7.5022 | || |2| | ||| | |B||| ||| ****| ||| | | | | | | 7.5022|
7.0443 | || |9|O|X||| | |X|O| ||| ****| ||| | | | | | | 7.0443|
6.6144 | || |8|O|A|O| | |X|O| ||| ****| ||| | | | | | | 6.6144|
6.2107 | || |2|4|X|O|6| |A|1|X||| ****| ||| | | | | | | 6.2107|
5.8316 | 2| |X|O|X|C|X|O|X|2|9|O| ****| ||| | | | | | | 5.8316|
5.4757 | 1|O|1|6| |3|X|O|X|5|X|O|B****| ||| | | | | | | 5.4757|
5.1415 | B|O|X| | |O| |9| |6|X|C|A|O||| ||| | | | | | | 5.1415|
4.8277 | 8|8|X| | ||| | | |O| |O|X|O||| ||| | | | | | | 4.8277|
4.5331 | X|B||| | ||| | | ||| |1|X|8||| ||| | | | | | | 4.5331|
4.2564 | X| ||| | ||| | | ||| |4| |O||| ||| | | | | | | 4.2564|
3.9966 | || ||| | ||| | | ||| ||| |A||| ||| | | | | | | 3.9966|
3.7527 | || ||| | ||| | | ||| ||| |O||| ||| | | | | | | 3.7527|
3.5236 | || ||| | ||| | | ||| ||| |O||| ||| | | | | | | 3.5236|
3.3086 | || ||| | ||| | | ||| ||| |B||| ||| | | | |

Jul 29, 2006 1:32 PM

Im Smile :

I added to my MRK position when there was truly MRK blood in the street a while back 11/5/04 @ 26.25... annualized on this tier is about 29.7% for a little over 1.5 year hold period...

Collecting a fat dividend waiting for this turkey to gain some MO and develop a fat pipe.

Did the same for PFE - maybe with Mckinnell out of the way, Kindler can do some things to give "Stuart" impetus to light this candle too... :)

Aug 8, 2006 5:18 AM

Steve Madigan :

Hey Kirk, check out the .25 chart on PFE, you have your bullish po at 35.25. The only thing about the slower charts is you haven't got a buy signal yet to give you a bullish po. If you had used the faster chart .25 with the double top buy at 24 could have been a good entry. RS is still in a column of O's but is really close to reversing into X's. If I use a faster RS scale it reversed into X's on 7/27. Probably right around the time the 24 double top break occured.
PFE .25 chart

30.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 30.00
29.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 29.75|
29.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 29.50|
29.25 | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 29.25|
29.00 | | | | | |X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 29.00|
28.75 | | | |X| |X|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 28.75|
28.50 | | | |X|O|X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 28.50|
28.25 | | | |X|O|X|O| | |•| | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 28.25|
28.00 | |X| |X|O|X|O| | | |•| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 28.00|
27.75 | |X|O|X|6|X|O|X| | | |•| | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 27.75|
27.50 | |X|O|5|O| |O|X|O| | | |•| | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 27.50|
27.25 | |X|O|X| | |7|X|O| | | | |•| | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 27.25|
27.00 | |X|O|X| | |O|X|O| | | | | |•| | | | ||| | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | TOp|27.00|
26.75 |O|X|O| | |•|O|X|O| | | | | | |•| | | ||| | | |X| |X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | 26.75|
26.50 |O|X| | |•| |O| |O|X| | | | | | |•| | ||| | | |X|O|X|O|•| | | |X| | | | | | | | 26.50|
26.25 |O|X| |•| | | | |O|X|O| | | | | | |•| ||| |X| |X|O|X|O| |•| | |X|O| | | | | | | 26.25|
26.00 |O|X|•| | | | | |8|X|O| | | | | | | |•||| |X|O|X|O|X|3| | |•| |X|O| | | | | | | 26.00|
25.75 |O|•| | | | | | |O|9|O| | | | | | | | |•| |X|O|X|O|X|O| | | |•|X|8| | | | | | | 25.75|
25.50 |•| | | | | | | |O|X|O|A| | | | | | | |||•|X|2|X|O|X|O|5| | | |X|O| | | | | | | 25.50|
25.25 | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O|X| | | | | ||| |X|O|X|O| |O|X|O| | |X| | | | | | | | 25.25|
25.00 | | | | | | | | |O| |O|X|O|X|O| | |X| ||| |X|O| | | |O|X|O| | |X| | | | | | | | 25.00|
24.75 | | | | | | | | | | |O|

Aug 8, 2006 7:03 AM

Steve Madigan :

The golden child has now turned negative for the first time since its IPO...GOOG had reached a high of 472 earlier this year, but since then the stock has made lower highs each time. The Wall Street darling could not even escape the wrath of supply as the trend chart first gave a quadruple bottom breakdown at $376, and then went on to violate the bullish support line with the move to $364 on the chart (with Thursday's market action). Generally, strong levels of support will turn into strong levels of resistance once violated, as the $380 level did for GOOG on Friday as its rally back up stalled right at that level.During the months of June and July, GOOG fell to the $380 level on three separate occasions, and each time the chart was able to hold support. The third reversal up off this level though, merely resulted in a lower top and then with the first chart action in August the trend chart of GOOG hit $376 which broke a spread quadruple bottom. With Thursday's market action, GOOG fell to $364, putting the chart in a negative trend for the first time in its two-year existence on Wall Street.This breakdown also took the stock to oversold territory, so a near term bounce would by all means be expected.So here is the chart, and you make the call<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=GOOG,P&listNum=>GOO G 4 point chart (default)</a><a href= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1>Beartoes</a&g t;

Aug 12, 2006 8:09 AM

Steve Madigan :

Well it appears that we got the bounce that was mentioned in the earlier post to the 384 level and just as quick has now reversed back into a column of O's, with RS still getting weaker.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=GOOG,P&listNum=>GOO G 4 point chart (default)</a>

So now we watch for the print of the 460 number and this baby should be heading south after that. Maybe a short at that time...Just a little follow-up to the previous post...

Enjoy and have a great weekend...

<a href= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1>Beartoes</a&g t;<a href="http://s25.sitemeter.com/stats.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" target="_top"></a>

Aug 12, 2006 9:02 AM

Steve Madigan :

This I found as a very interesting chart pattern. Has been making higher lows and higher highs since June when it bottomed at 46. Here is the 1 point chart.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=ice,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][ F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G>ICE 1 point chart (default)</a>

Here is a little of what the company does if you are not familiar with them.

Intercontinental Exchange Inc. owns and operates an electronic commodities trading platform. The Company's electronic trading platform serves buyers and sellers of derivatives and physical energy commodities contracts. Intercontinental conducts its futures business through its wholly-owned subsidiary, the International Petroleum Exchange.

So being in the commodity field and that's seems to be the hot ticket (commodities), I thought I would bring this to your attention.

The stock is sitting very close to the middle of the 10w trading band which is very good. RS is strong and continues to get stronger compared to the SPXEWI. In fact, here is the RS chart.

ICE vs SPXEWI RS chart


4.949 | | 4.949
4.793 | | 4.793
4.642 | | 4.642
4.496 | | 4.496
4.355 | | X 4.355
4.217 | | X O 4.217
4.085 | | X 5 O 4.085
3.956 | | X O X O 3.956
3.832 | | X O X O 3.832
3.711 | | X 4 X O 3.711
3.594 | | X O X O X 3.594
3.481 | | X O X O 7 3.481
3.371 | | X O X O X 3.371
3.265 | | 3 O X O X 3.265
3.163 | 2 X O X O X 3.163
3.063 | X O X O 6 X 3.063
2.967 | X O X O X 2.967
2.873 | X O O 2.873
2.783 | X 2.783
2.695 | X 2.695
2.610 | X 2.610
2.528 | X 2.528
2.449 | X 2.449
2.372 O X 2.372
2.297 O X 2.297
2.225 O 1 2.225
2.155 O C 2.155
2.087 O X 2.087
2.021 O X 2.021
1.957 O | 1.957
1.896 | | 1.896
1.836 | | 1.836
1.778 | | 1.778
1.722 | | 1.722
1.668 | | 1.668
----- 0 0
----- 5 6



It has

Aug 18, 2006 6:58 AM

Steve Madigan :

This is just a followup on ICE. The other day I put this up for everyone to check out and have the opportunity to get in at a lower price on a pull back.

I had mentioned that the reversal back up on the .5 chart could be the time to enter the trade.

Well, here is what the chart looks like today...

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=ICE,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][ F1!3!.5!!2!20]&pref=G>ICE .5 point chart</a>

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=ICE,P&listNum=>ICE 1 point chart</a>

So now what to do. Well the ideal thing is not to chase stocks. This is making a nice move and I would wait for a reversal at least on the .5 chart and then enter the trade with 1/2 position and then on the reversal back into X's, pick up the rest of the trade.

Hope you enjoy,

Beartoes

Aug 18, 2006 9:06 AM

Steve Madigan :

Hey Kirk,

This is what I see on Carrier Access Corp (CACS).

This baby has been hurting since 7/04 until the bottom was put in around 6/05. Looks like 4.25 is the low since it was tested again several months after the June time frame.

The reversal in Dec of 05 until now has produced a 100% return if you were in at the bottom. This little rest it is taking now seem quite normal. There are some good things and some bad things about this one. It is listed in the Telephone area which is unfavored right now and is in a bear confirmed status. The good things are RS just went to a buy and the weekly momentum just turned postitive and that will usually last about 6-7 weeks. The RS is a big one for me. RS to its peers is also positive.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=cacs,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!.5!!2!20]&pref=G>CACS .5 point chart</a>

As you can see from the chart, 6.5 could be used for the stop if you wanted to get in now. Nice and close which is what I like. It is over the 10% stop that I like, but, oh well, not bad. Target is 18.75 so there is plenty of room to the upside, but we have the bearish resistance line sitting right at 11.5. So right now there is a 3 point cushion until there could be a problem. That is about what 40% gain, not bad. I will take that all day, right.

So over all it looks pretty good to me.

I will keep you posted on its progress in the future.

Thanks for the question. I would like to see more questions if anyone out there would like to see a picture of there stocks in a point and figure format.

Thanks again and have a great weekend,

Beartoes

Aug 18, 2006 9:22 AM

hickfish :

Beartoes; that is really good information. Could you spend some time on...

VLNC

It would be much appreciated.

Aug 19, 2006 4:53 PM

Steve Madigan :

Thanks for asking, and I would be happy to lend my view.

VLNC for one is a penny stock. At least that is what I call it. It has been in a solid downtrend for the last 2 years.

Right now it is trying to get back into X's, but has a long road to hold before you would see a buy signal. You are looking at $3 bucks for the first buy signal since 1/04, wow...

RS is in X's but on a sell signal, so near term strength is possible. RS to its peers (electronics sector - unfavored) is in X's but on a sell also. Weekly momentum has been positive for 3 weeks and is just slightly past the center of the trading bands. You have to also remember that the bands are quite narrow 2.25 -.75, not very big...

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=VLNC,PLUADANRBO[PA][D2 0060818][F1!3!0.25!!2!20]&pref=G>VLNC default chart</a>

Looking at Valence it needs a lot of help. You could see some near term out performance, but this one is certainly not for me...

I know I probably didn't say the things that you wanted to hear, but that is what I see. Now I could be wrong. Look for valence to head up to the 2.50-2.75 area, which will be its resistance area. As you can see it has been running in a well formed down channel.

I hope you enjoyed and if you or anyone else has a stock, etf, etc that you would like me to look at, please just ask.

Have a great weekend,

Beartoes

Aug 21, 2006 6:03 AM

Steve Madigan :

So with Iran, the ME war (or cease fire) and every other political problem that is out there, where is crude going to go.

Boy that is a tough question. I would like to show you the CRUDE chart on DWA but I can't do that anymore. So with that I will show you the Crude Continuous chart (CL/).

Looking at the chart we may be in store for some lower crude prices. The chart may head down to the last support which was the 69 level. I will be curious to see if it get there.

But as you can see, it is definitely in a most serious up trend for the last 1 1/2 years that the chart shows. Mid of the trading bands is 73 with the high at 80 and the bottom at 65. So to see a little rally would not be unusual.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$WTIC,P>Crude Continuous 1 point chart</a>

Hope everyone had a good weekend and are ready for some trading,

Beartoes

Aug 21, 2006 7:41 AM

James Joseph Kenney :

I would be interested in what the chart suggests and what you all think the prospects for FARO lmight be. It has been relatively weak until lately but seems to have put in a bottom (hopefully) in June. It's had a patent infringement lawsuit (still not settled), a bribery scandal in China (on going), and problems with irrationally exuberant management projections leading to investor lawsuits (on going) plus reduced earnings all of which have taken it from over $30/sh down to about $12/sh (ouch).

Aug 21, 2006 3:53 PM

Steve Madigan :

Well with all the things that you mentioned about FARO, you would think that it would be in the toilet, but it is not now any way.

FARO is in the Electronics sector which is Unfavored. Like you mentioned the stock was at a high of 32 several years ago and then went to 12, I guess people were finding out what you mentioned. It has since rallied up to 18 and is setting up for a bullish catapult pattern. It need to go into a column of O's then reverse back into X's for the catapult. A very strong pattern if it happens.

RS for FARO is positive for both the stock and the stock against its peers. The weekly momentum has been positive for 7 weeks so we could see it slow down for a while and then pick back up. The trend line is sitting at 19 so this will be its first sign of trouble. Then the top of the trading range is 20 which will be its next trouble spot. 14.5 should be a trader stop for the stock.

Right now I would be waiting for the pull back and if the RS remains positive maybe take on a partial position and then the reversal back into X's for the remaining portion of the position.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=FARO,P&listNum=>FAR O default chart</a>

Hope you enjoyed,

Beartoes

Aug 22, 2006 6:42 AM

James Joseph Kenney :

Thanks - This year I bought 300-400sh of FARO at 15.26, 14.94, 13.45, and 12.35 and recently sold 500sh at 17.25. Had bought some on pullbacks back in 2004 and 2005 before all their problems came to light so net-net I am still slightly in the red (break even at 17.99). I was thinking of selling another few hundred shares around $18 and then close to $19 (if it gets there) and then buying them back cheaper as long as the company seems to be dealing effectively with its multiple problems. If we get the pullback first I may buy back those 500sh when it gets close to $14.50. I figure as long as the company isn't poised for bankruptcy buying low and lower and then selling high and higher should work out okay in the long run. Their laser scanning measurement devices have been used to improve the quality and cut the cost of manufacturing everything from custom-built motorcycles (by Jesse James) and aircraft carriers so I suspect long-term they should continue to grow.

Aug 22, 2006 2:29 PM

Steve Thompson :

Beartoes, I have owned GE for several years and have some funds to add to my position. I am planning on making it a long term holding. I am looking for a favorable entry point. I'd like to buy it a few bucks lower than it closed today. Would you care to give your thoughts? TIA

Aug 23, 2006 5:23 AM

Steve Madigan :

Stevet,
GE has been under performing the market since 12/01 and continues to under perform to this day. If you already own some of this I would look somewhere else for better performance. There are plenty out there, anyway.
GE is in the middle of the trading band with the trend line at 31 on the default chart (1 point). As mentioned earlier RS is in O's and is getting worse and GE is under performing its peers. The sector is unfavored.
On the .5 point chart support can be found at 32, so if you wanted to purchase more this would be the area to look at IMO.
Not a very pretty chart and there are better stocks out there to buy other than this one, sorry to say.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=GE,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][F 1!3!.5!!2!20]&pref=G>GE .5 point chart</a>

Beartoes

Aug 23, 2006 8:48 AM

Patrick Slevin :

I glance from time to time at the Spiral thread and could not help but mention,

Did you notice that SP6U hit a 20 Box reversal at 1306? Wouldn't that have warned you that the SP was getting overextended at that point?

I do not trade the spoo any longer but I still follow some of the threads. So when I noticed you both there as well as here it crossed my mind to ask you about the P&F warning.

Do you look at signals such as excessively long columns of Xs or Os or do you look more at the intraday charts?

The fellow who wrote a lot of the code for intraday charts (eSignal, I believe. Stockcharts) used to post on SI but I haven't seen many Intraday P&F charts or users who've spoken of them since I lost track of him.

BTW, I notice there isn't a correlation for the column of Xs on SPX...

Aug 23, 2006 8:54 AM

Patrick Slevin :

I should have been more clear,

I use a 2 box reversal on spoo charts

What is yours? That may be the difference.

Aug 23, 2006 12:45 PM

Steve Thompson :

Beartoes, I really do appreciate your efforts here at 101. Thank you very much.

Maybe I should buy some I-bonds instead? :)

Aug 23, 2006 3:14 PM

Steve Madigan :

Hi Patrick,

Yes I saw the reversal at 1306

I use 3 box reversal

yes I look at stems of X's and O's

And yes it looked extended

The 1 and 2 point box sizes show a lot of noise in them, but you can notice different things on them and see if they fall in line with the slower charts such as 4 and 5 point box sizes.

I am hoping to catch the large moves using the spiral and PnF.

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Aug 23, 2006 7:08 PM

Patrick Slevin :

Been a Dorsey Wright Subscriber for several years.

Had/Have prototype intraday charting ability using PnF Software but discarded it....I guess it's still on my machines but I don't trade that way any longer.

I use PNF as confirmation, primarily. Stops secondarily, and as a warning device. Overbought/oversold.

Although I find French Curves to be more accurate, Pnf Formations alert me to use the curves.

In any event, I do not wish to posture myself as a PnF user. I'm not.

p

Aug 23, 2006 7:13 PM

Patrick Slevin :

The larger Move in SPX is 1207, on the high side.

Whether it goes there straight away or not is the question.

Well, good luck with your efforts.

Aug 25, 2006 6:10 AM

Steve Madigan :

Good morning,
I am here looking at the crude chart that has a trend line that dates back to 9/03. The trend has not been broken once over that time frame.

Right now we are sitting right on the trend line. It will be interesting to see if we break to the high side and leave the trend line intact. I can't show you the chart anymore, they changed some things up and it looks really funny if I try to paste it, sorry.

It is sitting right on the 71 mark and has big support at the 69 level, but that would break the trend line.

I will let you know which way this goes. My guess is to the upside.

Talk to you soon,

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Aug 27, 2006 4:05 PM

Steve Madigan :

Well this would certainly not be one of my favorites. You must have made money from beginning of Aug until now. It has been in a solid down trend since the turn of the new year. Well I guess that is not true that was its high.

RS flipped to a sell in Mar, right before it broke the trend line.

Currently RS is still in a sell but in X's, saying near term strength is possible Vs. SPXEWI. I can't show you the chart anymore, sorry. RS Vs. its peers (oil service sector - unfavored) is also in a sell but in X's. It is currently about 50% overbought with the top of the trading band at 6.5. So there is still a little more room to move and the trend line with will be the next resistance at 7.

Too many negatives for me, but if you had to be in the oil service sector there are probably better choices out there other than GGR.

Some other idea's would be:
Acergy SA (ACGY)...better pattern on a pullback to the 16 area...
Cameron International Corporation (CAM)...much better pattern and RS on Buy in X's...
Enerplus Resources Fund (ERF)...nice yield also...
The Exploration Company of Delawre (TXCO)..here is a little cheaper one with a better pattern to look at on a pull back to the 11.5 area.

There are a few choices. They may not do exactly the same thing, but in the same sector with many more positives than GGR, sorry.

Good trading to you and thanks for the question. Please keep those questions rolling...

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Aug 30, 2006 6:31 AM

Steve Madigan :

Hello everyone,

Thanks to all who have asked questions on various stocks. I really enjoy doing them and keep them coming...

I had wrote in the spiral forum last week that the SPX was working a shakeout pattern when it hit 1296 and mentioned that this is a very good pattern to trade. Well the pattern was completed when it hit 1304.

The SPX has now retraced slightly and has now started a bullish catapult. Which is also a very good pattern to trade when it is in a uptrend as it is now. The pattern will start when it reverses today and prints 1302 which will be today at the open. The pattern will complete when it hits the 1306.

This is usually a very good pattern to trade and usually provides some upside movement.

Lets see what happens.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SPX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!2.0!!2!20]&pref=G>SPX 2 point chart</a>

Aug 30, 2006 7:06 AM

hickfish :

Hi beartoes: This is always great information and it is much appreciated.

If you do really enjoy doing them I think we can keep them coming.

How about UTEK?

Sep 1, 2006 6:28 AM

Steve Madigan :

Hello,

Sorry for the delay in responding but I am trying to work the spiral at the same time and the spiral has been a little finicky so far.

But any lets talk about UTEK.

This chart does not look the best. This stock has been in a down trend since 3/06 and is still in it. It has seemed to have bottomed out around the 13 level where it has found support in the past. It has been positive weekly momentum for the past 6 weeks and that is about the average time for momentum.

RS for this stock against the market and its peers is negative in a sell in a column of O's which is the worst you can get. Semiconductor sector is still unfavored.

It is currently sitting in the middle of the trading band at 14 with the top of the band at 18.5 which is also where the down trend line is and will become resistance.

Before considering this its needs a breakout and a print of 16 and that would give a little room to the up side.

There are better ones out there in my opinion.

Sorry for the bad report, but that is what the charts say to me. I guess you could play this with the stop at 12.5 if you really wanted to.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=UTEK,P&listNum=>UTE K default chart</a>

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 1, 2006 7:53 AM

hickfish :

Thanks for the information. It is really appreciated. If you are serious about continuing to do these, I believe the analysis is very interesting.

If so, what do you think of BPL?

Thanks in advance.

Sep 1, 2006 9:58 AM

Steve Madigan :

Sure no problem.

Watch out for the 40 level. It still may hold there also, but keep a good eye on it if it gets there.

This has a very nice yield too.

Chart pattern is not the greatest. Broke the bullish support line just recently, so you need to watch it.

RS is showing a little weakness near term at a buy in O's. This is second best, but near term problems. RS compared to its peers (utilities/gas) is not good so there are better choices out there right now. It is a sell in O's which is the worst.

Keep an eye on it but I would not do anything with it. 39-40 is critical to hold. And if it breaks out of 44 it may be OK to get in there...

Hope that help,

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=BPL,P&listNum=>BPL default chart</a>

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 6, 2006 5:42 AM

Steve Madigan :

As mentioned on 8/12 ICE looked pretty good.

This is just a followup on it. It has since broke out and still looks pretty good. RS strong against peers and market. Waiting for 66 for the next breakout to higher levels.

Could wait for a pullback to enter trade. Target is 74.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=ICE,P&listNum=>ICE default chart</a>

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 6, 2006 5:38 PM

Steve Madigan :

Boy that 200 sure has held and if you look at the weekly and use the 50 week look how many times this has held.

I wish I could show you the NYMEX Crude chart on PnF. What you would see is that it just broke the BSL that has been affect for years, but it is sitting on a spread quad bottom at 69. The bottom of the trading band is 68, weekly momentum has been negative for 6 weeks (normal time).

I would say play it and give it just a little room. If it prints 67, bail. Sound like great R/R to me. Mid of the trading band is 73 and we know everything want to be at the mean, most of the time.(66.6%). Got to stay under that bell curve. So it looks pretty good to me.

Lets see what happens. I sure wish I could show you that other chart on the 1 pt scale. Well to bad...

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 8, 2006 5:26 AM

Steve Madigan :

Well as of yesterday the NYMEX Crude chart has broken the the spread quad bottom with a print of 68. It is now sitting right at the bottom of the 10 week trading band.

Next stop could be the high 50's for the NYMEX crude chart. Time will tell.

Bottom of the Crude Cont chart is 65, so there is a ways to go yet

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 10, 2006 11:15 AM

J :

Kirk,

What is the trading vehicle for the crude oil($WTIC)?

I think if you look at MACD, it is not a buy this time. A better bet would be the time when crossover happens according to the pattern. This won't garantee you a temporal lower point entrance but you have better chance to enter a winning position.

I am looking at weekly chart on stockcharts.com

Sep 10, 2006 11:32 AM

J :

check crossover above:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0 &id=p77373528164

Sep 13, 2006 8:40 AM

Steve Madigan :

Well with the market moving higher, we just got a new buy signal on the SPX.

We are heading to the highs in May and maybe beyond.

Some of my indicators are getting a little over extended and we could see some releif, but who knows.

Things are looking pretty good so far, so we might as well enjoy it while we can.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SPX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!5!!2!20]&pref=G>SPX 5 point chart</a>

The upper end of the 10 week trading band is 1345, with the bullish price objective of 1395. So we got some room to run.

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 14, 2006 2:57 PM

Steve Madigan :

A couple are bear correction, but still in X's, which is nice.

I am going to look at the 10W and momentum and see if we are getting a little bit overbought and maybe should pull back some.

Beartoes

Sep 15, 2006 6:31 AM

Steve Madigan :

Boy those Natural Resoursces and gold are just getting creamed. The charts stink and it doesn't look like the bottom is in yet to me.

GLD looks like it could go to the bottom of the 10W trading band which is 55.5. So there is still room to the down side. Looking at the chart is just broke that long term up trend, so for the first time in a long time GLD is in a negative trend

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=GLD,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][ F1!3!.5!!2!20]&pref=G>GLD chart</a>

The IGE natural resourses chart is also another ugly chart. There is some support at the 87-88 area and it will probably get there some time soon.

Just got a sell signal on the RS chart also. Not looking to good for the home team.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=ige,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!0.5!!2!20]&pref=G>IGE chart</a>

Talk to you soon,

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 15, 2006 7:05 AM

Steve Madigan :

Boy that ICE call a few weeks ago is sure showing its form.

That baby is taking off like a rocket. Should find some resistence at the 70 level. We shall see.

Will buy more on the pull back for sure.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=ICE,P&listNum=>ICE chart</a>

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 20, 2006 8:00 AM

Steve Madigan :

Hello,

Sorry for not presenting anything over the last few days, things just came up.

So, what are these markets going to do? Yesterday it appeared that we were in for the start of some type of decline and sure enough it retraced the entire down move by the end of the day.

Now today here we are trying to make new all time highs. 1325 on the SPX will tie the May high with 1330 breaking out above it. Will this 1330 level be hit today? We will just have to see. You can see the price objective is 1395, so we are a long way from there. Will we get there before this run is over????? It sure looks pretty good.

Some of the short term indicators that I follow and can no longer show are getting a little extended. Could we see a turn around at this new level? Maybe and then start for the 1395 after a pull back. It looked like yesterday was the start of the pull back but that didn't happen.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SPX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!5!!2!20]&pref=G>SPX 5 point chart</a>

Nasdaq is starting to make a nice move with the techs that have been in the toilet for most of the year. Starting to make a move now.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$COMPQ,P>NASDAQ 10 point chart</a>

So all in all things are looking pretty good. FOMC announcement in a few hours, all think there will be nothing happening with interest rates. Will have to see what the market does then.

Talk to all of you soon. If you have something for me to look at for you, just let me know.

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 20, 2006 8:39 AM

Steve Madigan :

Has anyone noticed that it seems like the indices (dow, nasd, spx) are all moving higher and stocks are not moving much?

It seems like I am treding water with equities, but indexes are charging forward.

Now don't get me wrong, the portfolio is increasing in value, but it seems not nearly as much as the indexes are moving. It seems to be lop sided to indexes.

Large caps are starting to move but small and mid have slowed down a lot.

Any one else seeing this or is it just me?

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 26, 2006 4:44 AM

Steve Madigan :

Well as the indices are moving higher there are some sectors that are not following suite.

The oil service sector is one of them. This sector has broken trend lines dating back years. This makes things not so good for the sector.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$OSX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!4.0!!2!20]&pref=G>OSX chart</a>

As you can see from the chart, things are not looking so good for the oil service sector. The bottom of the trading band is 160 so there is still some room to fall. Also the RS chart (which I can't show you anymore) has also reversed to O's for the first time since 7/2004. That is a long time...

Some of the stocks that make up the sector have also broken trend lines that date back for years also.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=SLB,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!1.0!!2!20]&pref=G>SLB 1 point chart</a>

As you can see from the chart of SLB, thing are heading south for this stock. It may find its last leg of support at 54. After that the bottom of the trading range is 52 and then who knows from there.

There are many other stocks that I could list here that are heading south taking the OSX with it. If you own Oil Service stock, be careful here. Not sure where the bottom is coming in to this.

Talk to you soon,

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 26, 2006 5:15 AM

Steve Thompson :

.
Beartoes, could you please give us your opinions on the future prospects for Lam Research (LRCX) and Applied Materials (AMAT)?

.

Sep 26, 2006 5:45 AM

Steve Madigan :

Well I don't know about you, but since the indexes have been moving higher, it seems that stock picking has been tough. At least for me. Portfolio is up, but not nearly like the indexes.

Here we are reaching and getting close to all time highs on the markets. Why??? These are all cap weighted indexes, and the big boys have been doing good of late.

For the last 5 years, small and mid cap have been outperforming the big caps easily. Buy not as much any more.

So lets take a look at the Nifty 50 and see if that will tell a story. The XLG is made up of the biggest cap weighted stocks. And this index is where you wanted to be lately.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=XLG,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][ F1!3!.5!!2!20]&pref=G>XLG .5 chart</a>

This XLG has had better than a 10% run in the last 2 month. Not to shabby I would say. This could have a lot to do with why the indexes are getting close to a all time high. We need a nice pullback and jump on board. Right now we are at the top of the trading band so patience is key...

Take care,

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 26, 2006 6:41 AM

Steve Madigan :

Hi SteveT and thanks for the question. I would be happy to do that.

As you know the semi's have been starting to move a little lately as seen in the NDX.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$NDX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!5.0!!2!20]&pref=G>NDX 5 point chart</a>

Now as far as AMAT and LRCX, these are two big ones for the NDX.

AMAT has been in a solid down trend since 2000 as seen by the 2 point chart.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=AMAT,PLUADANRBO[PA][D ][F1!3!2.0!!2!20]&pref=G>AMAT 2 point chart</a>

Amat has been heading down since Jan 2006 and the chart looks pretty ugly. RS is negative to the market and its peers. It has been trying to rally since 8/2006 but still is in a negative trend. There are much better choices than Amat, with Lrcx being one of them.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=AMAT,PLUADANRBO[PA][D ][F1!3!0.5!!2!20]&pref=G>AMAT .5 point chart</a>

Now for Lrcx. This is a totally different looking chart pattern. Lrcx is in a positive trend, with RS to the market and peers is positive. A break out above 45.5 should move Lrcx to higher levels.

If I compare Lrcx to Amat RS wise, Lrcx is out performing AMat. So the choice out of these two is Lrcx.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=lrcx,PLUADANRBO[PA][D ][F1!3!0.5!!2!20]&pref=G>LRCX .5 point chart</a>

So there you are. If you are going with one of these, chose LRCX over AMAT. I wish I could show the RS charts, but the new system does not allow it.

Hope this helps,

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 26, 2006 9:23 AM

cr :

Toes,would you please run an analysis on NOVL. Thanks S3.

Sep 26, 2006 3:16 PM

Steve Madigan :

Sure S3, no problem.

Novell, Inc. (NOVL) is in the software sector which right now is unfavored but the BP is in X's which is good. It has been negative for weekly momentum for 2 weeks and they will normally stay that way for 6.

It is currently sitting right in the middle of the 10 week trading band which is good. It has pulled back to the trend line which has been in place since 2003. It has been as high as 14 in 2004 and been heading back to the trend line ever since then.

RS to the market and peers are on a buy in O's which is probably why this hasn't been moving with the markets of late. It has been hanging in there though.

Looks ok for entry now with a stop at 4.75 which would break the trend line (not good) and also break a double bottom at 5. 4.75 is the last resort for this one.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=NOVL,P&listNum=>NOV L default chart</a>

Doesn't look to bad as long as it does not break the trend line. Right now it is still in a positive trend.

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 26, 2006 3:29 PM

cr :

Thanks, I bought at 6.65. Small % of portfolio. I'll hold and see what happens.S3

Sep 26, 2006 5:56 PM

James Joseph Kenney :

If you get a chance I would be interested in what the charts say about TSM. It appears to be perpetually undervalued even though it pays a generous dividend which incudes some "free shares" - actually some weird mini-split. It also has a fairly strong growth rate and is in a beaten down (since early 2004) in a sector (Semiconductors) that also appears due for a significant rebound (which may have already started). Perhaps it looks cheap because of fears about what China may do with Tawain?

Sep 27, 2006 6:54 AM

Steve Madigan :

doctorj2 no problem. I have such a good time doing these and sometimes they show me a good one too.

In the case of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM), this has been trading between 6.5 and 10 for 3 years now. Right now it is in a column of X's, but RS to its peers and market shows that there are better semi stocks out there. RS is not good.

Weekly momentum has been positive for 8 weeks and typically it stays there for 6 so it is over due for a pause. It is sitting just above the mid of the 10 week trading band.

Semi's are starting to make a move but still unfavored sector with the BP in X's. It has been trending higher since 7/04, but it does not move much.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=TSM,P&listNum=>TSM default chart</a>

Just so you know, the charts that I use on the Dorsey Wright site is totally different than the one I just posted for you. This chart that I posted is working a shakeout pattern which says get in now with the stop at 7.5 or the break of the double bottom. This is the first time that I have seen the charts so far off......I would not trust the one I posted...Just my opinion...

If I were you I would look for a different one. That trading range could happen again and when it hits 10 it reverses back down. Plus when it hit the 10 area it is then at the top of the 10 w band and should want to revert back to the mean.

I hope this helped and I enjoyed it.

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 27, 2006 7:19 AM

Steve Madigan :

Well I feel for the people who thought RMBS was going to continue to move higher back in April and May. Way what a fall from grace...

RMBS continued to fall until it found support at 10.5 from a point back in 2005. Since then it has been moving higher. Almost a double since the bottom, not bad.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=rmbs,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!.5!!2!20]&pref=G>RMBS default chart</a>

So what is up with RMBS and the charts.

Momentum has been positive for 5 weeks (normal is 6 weeks). RS to the market and peers is in X's which is good on the default chart. I went a head and speeded up the RS chart and it has reversed back into O's, so caution is in the air.

The chart is in X's and moving higher and you could get in here with a stop at the 14.5-16 level depending on your risk tolorence...

It is sitting just above the mid of the 10week trading band. The sector is semi and still unfavored but the BP is is in X's and has good field position for a move upward. a break and print above 19.5 should move it higher.

So the thought is you can get in but be ready to pull the trigger if it hits the numbers listed above.

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 27, 2006 7:50 AM

Steve Madigan :

Well when I posted the info below in june and the RS turned negative I had said that it could hit 2.75 on the down side. It hit 2.5, not too bad, I came real close. Here read what I said in June of 06.

I think it is amazing how a trend line can be so powerful. When FNSR was rallying from 11/05 to 3/06 it came right up and hit the Bearish resistance line at 5, then it hit its head against 5 again in 6/06 to find that it was to much to handle and started to falter again. That trend line was in effect from 1/02. Now FNSR is setting up for a shakeout pattern. Usually these patterns are good ones to play when the market is on offense, but we are not on offense right now. The defensive team is on the field, so not sure how this pattern is going to play out.
If you wanted to play it you would buy on the 3 box reversal back to 4 and use the previous low as your stop out point which would be 3 right now. Now if it continues to make new lows the numbers above will all change. So just so we understand each other, the numbers above are if 3.25 is as low as it goes. The nice part about this pattern is that you have a very tight stop. Say for example it reverses back to 4 which will give you the x's again and then reverses back into o's and hits 3 that aborts the pattern. But again, these work best in offensive markets better than in defensive markets.

Right now relative strength is negative which is saying that FNSR is going to under perform the market near term. This just occurred on 6/8. Could we see the lower end of the trading bands at 2.75, that is certainly possible right now with RS negative and the defensive team on the field. The bearish price objective is 1.25. It would have to really tank to get there. Bullish support line is at 1.75.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=FNSR,P&listNum=>FNS R default chart</a>

RS on the default scale is still in O's but getting stronger. If I speed up the scale it has reversed back to X's. It is still working a shakeout pattern and has not failed it yet, and has reversed back to X's on the chart. Looking pretty good.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=FNSR,PLUADANRBO[PA][D ][F1!3!.125!!2!20]&pref=G>FNSR .125 chart speed</a>

If I speed up the chart just a bit and go to the .125 scale it shows the trend line from the May highs at 4.25. So we are going to need to bust through that.

It is not looking to bad right now. Top of the trading band is 4.5. Just be ready

Sep 27, 2006 9:47 AM

Steve Madigan :

Wow, DOW is moving without CAT. Boy you would think that it would need all the big boys to move and sustain a new high...but we will have to wait and see.

There is some really bad news for CAT. RS on a little faster speed than the default speed, shows that RS is in a SELL in O's. This is the first time that it has been in this mode since 2001. Wow, now that is not a good thing.
This means that CAT is going to under perform the SPXEWI, and boy oh boy has it ever.

CAT has been moving lower since July 2006. From a high of 75 to 62 so far for the low. This could definitely move lower from here. If and when the DOW decides to take a break, CAT could move lower. 57 is the bottom of the 10 week trading band and we could see that I think.

We could see a bump since we are below the mid of the 10 week band.

CAT is still in a positive trend with the bullish support line at 50. bearish price objective is 48.

May want to lighten up on any rallies. Need to bust through 71 to see this move significantly higher.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=CAT,P&listNum=>CAT 1 point chart</a>

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=CAT,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][ F1!3!.5!!2!20]&pref=G>CAT .5 chart</a>

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 27, 2006 12:35 PM

James Joseph Kenney :

Thanks, maybe I am overly optomistic about TSM because I am up about 38% in the past year and a half trading it. Perhaps I'll lower my next sell target and expect a bit less from it.

Does the future look brighter for INTC?

Sep 27, 2006 2:18 PM

Steve Madigan :

Heck that is a great return, you must have bought it in around july. Nothing wrong with being optimistic on that return. And like I said it is working a shakeout on the stockcharts.com and in x's on dwa, so either way is a positive. Keep up the good work.

INTC, wow what a story. I used to work for them in the late 80's to mid 90. When I was there the price was 140 before several splits. But that is a whole other story.

INTC currently pretty much of late stinks. I think it is the largest loser of the DOW stocks. It has been heading south since 1/03 and hasn't looked back. It seems to have bottomed out here lately though.

You have a bearish resistence line sitting at 22 which should cause some problem when it gets there, since it is 3 years old and has some weight. RS to its peers and the market stinks. It is almost at the top of the trading band now that it has finally rallied a little. Momentum has been positive for 7 weeks now and should be ready to turn the other way any time soon.

I mean there is some wiggle room in Intel from here. Maybe to 22-24, but who know how long it will take to get there.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=INTC,P&listNum=>Int c default chart</a>

If you want something in the semi sector take a look at some of these:
DIOD is pulling back, could be a good time for entry, RS positive.
FSL on a pull back..
LRCX is looking better.
MRVL has pulled right back to the trend line and has reversed with a good stop.

So there are a few for you to look over. Of course no gaurantees, but there are sure looking better than INTC for sure.

Thanks for visiting and invite your friends to come over and check us out. If you have any other questions just ask it is my pleasure.

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 27, 2006 2:24 PM

Steve Madigan :

Hey Kirk, how the heck are you. Good question.

I was watching FDX today to see if it was going to break 110 and sure enough it did for a double top break. This one is looking pretty good to me.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=fdx,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][ F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G>FDX default chart</a>

Bullish price objective is 135, so that is ok from here.

Positive weekly momentum for 3 weeks which is ok, just broke a double top, RS is positive, sector is average in X's which is ok. All in all not a bad pick.

Would like to pick it up now around the mid 105 area, so a little pullback and go.

Looks good Kirk, keep up the good work with your portfolio,

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 28, 2006 6:11 AM

Steve Madigan :

So what is google up to. It has recovered nice from the lows in Aug and is now poised to do something.....but what....lets take a look...

It is sitting just above the mid of the 10week band which is 385 and the top is 435. RS is positive to its peers and market. Weekly momentum has been positive for 4 weeks, so there is some room left (6 weeks is normal).

Seems to have found support at the 365 area that it has held 2 times.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=GOOG,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!5!!2!20]&pref=G>GOOG 5 point chart</a>

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=GOOG,PLUADANRBO[PA][D ][F1!3!2.0!!2!20]&pref=G>GOOG 2 point chart</a>

I am not sure and we will have to see if this is a bull trap on the 2 point chart. The trend line is at 390.

We could move to the down side a little maybe to the trend line of 390. Which would also put it in the middle of the trading range.

We really need to see this bust 420 to see this move a lot higher. This is a high risk stock, so be careful.

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Sep 28, 2006 6:28 PM

James Joseph Kenney :

Thanks for the input on TSM and INTC. LRCX is already my largest holding (thanks to Kirk) and I also own UTEK (my only loser out of 15 stock picks) so I'll take a look at MRVL, DIOD, & FSL and see if I can buy one on the cheap.

Sep 28, 2006 6:34 PM

hickfish :

Dr. J2: Be mindful of FSL that they have approved an offer to be taken private at $40/sh. I am not sure of the timeline, but the b shares I own are around $38 as of today.

Sep 28, 2006 6:39 PM

hickfish :

Beartoes: wondering if you might investigate this one for me.

Thanks as always.

Oct 2, 2006 6:34 AM

Steve Madigan :

Sorry for the delay, but I was out of town for the weekend.

Reynolds American Inc. (RAI), what a rocket ship. This has been moving higher and higher since 03. Wow, wish I was in this in 03.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=RAI,P&listNum=>RAI 1 point chart</a>

You would think looking at the chart that this is due for just a little pullback. It is sitting right in the middle of the 10 week band (perfect), has been negative momentum for 6 weeks, should be ready to go positive here soon. RS to its peers and market is great.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=RAI,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][ F1!3!.5!!2!20]&pref=G>RAI .5 point chart</a>

As you can see, it is moving a little lower right now on the .5 chart, so there may be an opportunity to get this a little cheaper. Watch for support around the 57.5 - 58.5 range.

Looks pretty good overall.

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Oct 2, 2006 10:07 AM

Steve Madigan :

Just an FYI on [NOVL] Novell, Inc..

When I change the scale to a .25 per box size, I see that this has reversed back into O's. It has printed a 5.99 today so far.

This is getting close. Need to be on the look for further deteriation of NOVL.

5.75 has held a couple of times in the past and would watch for that.

I posted on this a couple of weeks ago, so this is just an update.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=NOVL,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!.25!!2!20]&pref=G>NOVL .25 point chart</a>

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Oct 2, 2006 10:25 AM

Steve Madigan :

I have posted on this one several times in the past, but thought I would just give an update.

[FNSR] Finisar Corporation just reversed back up to X's last week, right on the trend line. This trend has been in force since 2005, so this one has some meat to it.

A break up to 4.25 would be great, but be careful of a break to the down side and a bust of the trend line. So a reversal back to O's might not be so good for FNSR.

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=fnsr,PLUADANRBO[PA][D] [F1!3!0.25!!2!20]&pref=G>FNSR .25 chart</a>

If I speed up the RS chart comparing FNSR to the SPXEWI, it has reversed back into X's. It is still not on a buy signal, but could see out performance near term.

Doesn't look like to bad an entry with a close stop.

Beartoes
Free PnF analysis of stocks in my <A HREF= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1 >Point and Figure Forum</A>

Oct 12, 2006 6:13 PM

Special Report: US$

By Enrico Orlandini | 12 October 2006

<a href="http://www.321gold.com/editorials/orlandini/orlandini101206/2.gi f">P&F US Dollar Index (End of Day) $USD</a>

I really like to use P & F charts because it strips out all the opinions, prejudices, politics, and other assorted garbage and boils everything down to price. It tells you what price is saying, and price is saying new multi-decade lows! If you want an opinion, I give you one: the dollar will go a lot lower than 76.00 over time. I predict that by the end of the decade, the dollar as we know it today will cease to exist. Inflation, or better yet hyperinflation, will see to that. And if we should be unlucky enough to see deflation, I suspect we'll all resort to barter and gold coins. No matter which of the above-mentioned three horsemen pop to the surface, there will be only two monies of choice: gold and silver. After all, it's in the U.S. Constitution and our forefathers had the presence of mind to put it there because they not only had foresight, but a good understanding of human nature.

<a href="http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/230">Norm xxx</a>    <a href="http://s13.sitemeter.com/stats.asp?site=s13s101discussions" ; target="_top"></a> <a href="http://s25.sitemeter.com/stats.asp?site=s25Normxxx" target="_top"></a>
______________
The contents of any third-party letters/reports above do not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.

The content of any message or post by normxxx anywhere on this site is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. Such is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should always consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

Jan 3, 2007 1:13 PM

Im Smile :

BT,

If you are still doing these I can't get a good read on CTL.

I'm looking to take some profits and wondering if I should punch out here or wait to see if the latest telecom lovefest will drive it up 5 points.

Insider selling + earnings multiple makes me want to take profits at the 44 level.

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