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Point and Figure Charting

Technical Analysis Using Point and Figure Charting

Jul 15, 2006

by Beartoes

Beartoes explains Point and Figure charting and answers your questions on the discussion forum.

What is point and figure. It is the relationship between supply and demand. If you were to look at a chart, you will see (X's) and (O's), some numbers and some letters.

What does all that me. It is quite simple. The X's signify demand and the O's signify supply. It is that simple. The letters and the number just tell you what month you are in. Starting in January (1) to December (C). So 1-9 are the first nine months of the year and A,B,C are the last 3 months.

Point and figure charts are the easiest charts to read. There is no ambiguity about it. Here is why. If you go to the far right of the chart, and lets say it is in a column of X's. If the last column of X's exceeds a previous column of X's you have what is called a double top and the chart is on a buy signal. The opposite applies to O's. If the last column to the right is O's and that column exceeds the previous column of O's, you have a double bottom and a sell signal. It is that easy. If you are on a buy demand has control and if you are on a sell supply has control. It is basic economics. Supply and demand.

When demand is in control the price will rise, when supply has control the price will drop.

What I hope to accomplish with this topic is to show and explain various charts to determine if we have demand in control or supply in control.

PnF can also be used to show relative strength. I hope to show relative strength in conjunction with the charts. This will help to show if you will see under performance or out performance of a specific chart for the near term as well as the long term.

There is so much activity going on in the markets, PnF can help clear up some of the confusion. I hope to accomplish this with the various charts and topics that I will be displaying.

I also have many other indicators using PnF that will help to show if the overall market is on offense or defense.

I take a top down approach for the markets. First is the overall market expecting to go up/down. Next the sector, then the stock.

For example right now all of my indicator are showing that we are in a defensive mode. The risk is high in the markets currently. I hope to show this relationship using PnF charts.

I feel that this will be a wonderful learning experience for all to see.

The copyright of the article Point and Figure Charting in Investment is owned by Kirk Lindstrom. Permission to republish Point and Figure Charting in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.

Comments

Jun 15, 2006 10:49 AM

Steve Madigan :

Point and Figure
What is point and figure. It is the relationship between supply and demand. If you were to look at a chart, you will see (X's) and (O's), some numbers and some letters.
What does all that me. It is quite simple. The X's signify demand and the O's signify supply. It is that simple. The letters and the number just tell you what month you are in. Starting in January (1) to December (C). So 1-9 are the first nine months of the year and A,B,C are the last 3 months.
Point and figure charts are the easiest charts to read. There is no ambiguity about it. Here is why. If you go to the far right of the chart, and lets say it is in a column of X's. If the last column of X's exceeds a previous column of X's you have what is called a double top and the chart is on a buy signal. The opposite applies to O's. If the last column to the right is O's and that column exceeds the previous column of O's, you have a double bottom and a sell signal. It is that easy. If you are on a buy demand has control and if you are on a sell supply has control. It is basic economic. Supply and demand.
When demand is in control the price will rise, when supply has control the price will drop.
What I hope to accomplish with this topic is to show and explain various charts to determine if we have demand in control or supply in control.
PnF can also be used to show relative strength. I hope to show relative strength in conjunction with the charts. This will help to show if you will see under performance or out performance of a specific chart for the near term as well as the long term.
There is so much activity going on in the markets, PnF can help clear up some of the confusion. I hope to accomplish this with the various charts and topics that I will be displaying.
I also have many other indicators using PnF that will help to show if the overall market is on offense or defense.
I take a top down approach for the markets. First is the overall market expecting to go up/down. Next the sector, then the stock.
For example right now all of my indicator are showing that we are in a defensive mode. The risk is high in the markets currently. I hope to show this relationship using PnF charts.
I feel that this will be a wonderful learning experience for all to see.
beartoes
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Jun 15, 2006 11:26 AM

Steve Madigan :

Well lets get this going with a little discussion about OIL. Seems to be one of the market movers on a daily basis.
Everyone I think knows about the OIH (Oil Service Holders) ETF. This seems to be a play when Crude is moving up/down. So what is the story on the OIH using PnF. Well here goes. This is what I am seeing. The charts will follow the discussion.
One thing to note here before I get started is, ETF's are weighted, so 1 or 2 companies can move the ETF dramatically, so be sure you know the makeup before you think about using them in your portfolio. For example, BHI is 10.3% of the OIH, HAL is 10.5%, RIg is 9.03%, there is 30% of the move of the OIH in just those 3 and there are approx 18 members. I am not going to list them all. If you want more info please check www.amex.com for a list of all the ETF's and there corresponding members. So let move on.
The trend for the OIH has turned negative for the first time since 5/05, when it just recently broke through the Bullish Support Line (Diagonal line on the chart). This chart went negative at 140. It did find support at the 132 level not once but now 3 times. So this will be a critical level for the future. Break 132 and print 130 and all bets are off.

OIH 2pt chart
<pre>
176 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 176
174 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 174|
172 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 172|
170 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 170|
168 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | 168|
166 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| |X|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | 166|
164 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | | 164|
162 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| |5|O|X|O| | |•| | | | | | | | | | 162|
160 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O| |O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | 160|
158 | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X| | |O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | 158|
156 | | | | | | | | || |X| | | | | | | | | |X| |X|O|X| | |O| | |X| | |•| | | | | | | 156|
154 | | | | | | | | X| |X|O|X| | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X| | |O| | |6|O| | | | | | | Med|154|
152 | | | | | | | | X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | |4|O|X|O| | | |O| | |X|O| |

Jun 15, 2006 12:13 PM

stocktiger :

Great explanation BearToes! You are one mean PF charting guru my friend. I am learning a great deal from you and am damn glad you joined this forum!!!!!!

Jun 15, 2006 2:06 PM

Steve Madigan :

They are dancing on the floor of the exchange. A couple of good days and the bottom is in...Ha! Not according to my indicators. Look at the bold below. O's are not good, and bear confirmed is even worse. We will just have to wait and see...

Symbol Date Level Current Change Status Column
BPNYSE 06/14/2006 44.00 42.58 -1.03 Bear Confirmed O 
MONYSE 06/14/2006 20.00 18.89 -1.36 Bear Confirmed O 
PTNYSE 06/14/2006 68.00 66.45 -0.49 Bear Confirmed O 
RSPNYSE 06/14/2006 54.00 52.11 -0.05 Bull Correction O 
RSXNYSE 06/14/2006 42.00 40.42 -0.28 Bull Correction O 
TWNYSE 06/14/2006 16.00 15.94 -0.09 Bear Confirmed O 
30NYSE 06/14/2006 32.00 30.93 0.68 Bear Confirmed O 
HILO 06/12/2006 34.00 32.01 -1.15 Bull Alert X

BP = bullish percent (1 stock one vote)
MO = momentum
PT = stock in a positive trend (above their bullish support line)
RSP = % of stocks on RS buy signal
RSX = % of stocks with RS in a column of X's
TWN = % of stocks above there 10 Week ma
30 = % of stocks above there 30 week ma

Todays has not been posted, so when it does I will post it here and we can see the change.

Beartoes
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Jun 15, 2006 3:08 PM

stocktiger :

Good info to know, the RSI data I looked at on specific investments sure didn't look like a sure fire turn yet but YOU are the man when it comes to these charts. Almost jumped in the pool today but need more data. Norm has been a pretty good predictor and seems to think this is just a tango, not a full blown waltz.

Good job on sharing!!!

Jun 16, 2006 12:16 PM

You'll get the break you want, but probably not until Q4, when the slowdown/recession has set in— that should prove the impetus for the next big rally in stocks.

Jun 16, 2006 6:06 PM

Steve Madigan :

I think you are seeing crude stuck at 70 because statistically that is where it should be the majority of the time. 70 is the mid of the 10 week trading band. I can see this trading from 69-74. Print 68 then the bullish support line should show some support at 67. The top of the trading band is 76 and should be some form of resistence once 75 is printed. Bottom of the band is 64 for FYI. I would show the chart but don't have the html to make them print right.
beartoes.
Kirk...could you plese send me the info to get the charts to print right. I am on the road and can not get to the mail on my home computor to look it up. Please email it to me and I will be able to pick it up once I get to Texas and open my mail. Thanks Kirk...

Jun 16, 2006 7:20 PM

Steve Madigan :

Kirk,
plese email me the html that makes my pnf charts show up right. You know <pre><font... you know what you gave me before. I can't get to my email because I am out of town. email it please. I got your other email
Thanks,
beartoes

Jun 20, 2006 7:34 AM

Steve Madigan :

I was just looking at the SPX sept contract chart and this chart has been making lower low's and lower highs. Not a very pretty chart. If I look at the 5 pt chart it will take a breakout to 1275 go give a buy signal and that could give it a chance to hit the middle of the trading band at 1295 and then it will run into trouble again. But that is just my opinion. I will show you both charts the 2 pt and the 5 so you can see what I mean.
Sept SPX 2 pt chart
<pre>
1350 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1350
1348 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1348|
1346 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1346|
1344 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1344|
1342 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1342|
1340 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1340|
1338 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1338|
1336 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1336|
1334 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | |X|O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1334|
1332 | | | | | | | | | | | |X| |X|O|X| | | |X|O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1332|
1330 | | | |X| | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O| | |X|O| | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | 1330|
1328 | | | |X|O| | |X| |X| |X|O|X|O|X|O|X| |X|O| | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | 1328|
1326 | | | |X|O|X| |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|5|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | 1326|
1324 | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | 1324|
1322 | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|4|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| |O| | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | 1322|
1320 | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | |O| | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | 1320|
1318 X| | | |X|O| |O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | |O| | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | 1318|
1316 X|O| | |X| | |O|X|O| |O|X|O|X| | | | | | |O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1316|
1314 X|O|X| |X| | |O|X| | |O| |O|X| | | | | |•|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1314|
1312 X|O|X|O|X| | |O| | | | | |O|X| | | | |•| |O|X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1312|
1310 |O|X|O|X| | | | | | | | |O|X| | | |•| | |O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1310|
1308 |O|3|O|X| | | | | | | | |O

Jun 20, 2006 8:40 PM

allancoleman :

Hello Mr. Beartoes ,

appreciate it if you would visit our ' GNMA " Ginne Mae " ' forum ( http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/541 ) and give us your opinion of the PnF chart that smile1 posted on our forum . any other fundamental and technical analysis would also be appreciated .

thanks in advance :) , allancoleman

Jun 21, 2006 7:29 PM

Steve Madigan :

What I would like to show you is the crude oil continous chart. This chart takes into account the front month oil contract. So as the front month contract expires this chart then adds on the next forward month contract. And so on and so on. This shows how crude is trading a little different than just the crude oil chart.
What I will show is the 1.25 point chart and you can see how this has been on a beautiful up trend for years and looking at the chart can go on for some time. We could see a drop to 63.75 and still be in that same up trend.
Right now we are statistically in the middle of the trading band. Right where we should be.
<pre>
80.00 |-----|---------------|---------------------------|--------------------- 80.00
78.75 | | | | Top 78.75
77.50 | | | | 77.50
76.25 | | | | 76.25
75.00 |-----|---------------|---------------------------|-------X------------- 75.00
73.75 | | | | X O 73.75
72.50 | | | | X O X 72.50
71.25 | | | | X O X O 71.25
70.00 |-----|---------------|---------------------------|-------X-5-X-O-------Med 70.00
68.75 | | | X X X O X 6 68.75
67.50 | | | X O X X O 4 O 67.50
66.25 | | | X O X O X O X 66.25
65.00 |-----|---------------|---------------X-9-X-O-----X-2-----X------------- 65.00
63.75 | | | X O A X O X X • 63.75
62.50 | | | X O 1 O X O X • Bot 62.50
61.25 | | | 7 8 O X X O X O X • 61.25
60.00 |-----|---------------|-----------X-O-X-----O-C-O-X-O-X-3-•------------- 60.00
58.75 | | | X O X B X O X O • 58.75
57.50 | | X 4 X O X O X O | • 57.50
56.25 | | X O X O X O O | • 56.25

Jun 22, 2006 5:57 AM

Steve Madigan :

I was just checking the US dollar spot (DX/Y) and it may have turned the corner and as NORM says we will continue to see weakness in the dollar. This may be the time to move some cash to the EURO (FXE), this is a Rydex ETF that plays the EURO so we don't have to go to the futures market to play this.
As you can see from the charts the DX/Y has now reversed back to O's and the FXE has broken a double top to give a buy signal after it came all the way back to the middle of the trading band.
Here are the charts. First I will show the .25 chart for the DX/Y
<pre>
93.25 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 93.25
93.00 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 93.00|
92.75 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 92.75|
92.50 | •| | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 92.50|
92.25 | X|•| ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 92.25|
92.00 O|C|O|•||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 92.00|
91.75 O|X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 91.75|
91.50 O|X|O| |||•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 91.50|
91.25 O| |O|X||| |•| | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 91.25|
91.00 | | O|X|O| | |•| | | |X| |X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 91.00|
90.75 | | O|X|O| | | |•|•| |X|O|X|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 90.75|
90.50 | | O|X|1| | | | |X|•|X|O|X|O|X|•|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 90.50|
90.25 | •|O|X|O| | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|4|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 90.25|
90.00 •| |O|X|O| | | | |X|O|X|3|X|O|X|O|X|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 90.00|
89.75 | | O| |O| | | | |X|O| |O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 89.75|
89.50 | | | | O|X| |X| |2| | |O|•|O|X|O| |O|X|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | TOp|89.50|
89.25 | | | | O|X|O|X|O|X| | |•| |O|X| | |O|X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 89.25|
89.00 | | | | O|X|O|X|O|X| |•| | |O| | | |O|X|O| | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 89.00|
88.75 | | | | O| |O|X|O| |•| | | | | | | |O|X|O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 88.75|
88.50 | | | | || |O|X| |•| | | | | | | | |O| |O|X| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | |

Jun 22, 2006 7:41 AM

Be careful. The Europeans do not want the dollar much lower vs the euro; and the pressure of the G7 is on the Asiatics to raise the yen and yuan. So, I would favor the ¥en here.

However, Japan has temporarily stopped sopping up their 'free money' (aka QE— Quantitative Easing and ZIRP— Zero Interest Rate Policy) because it was wacking the Carry Trade so (and deflating everything it had erstwhile inflated), so the dollar is likely not to move much at all for a while here. When they resume their actions of 'ending' QE and ZIRP, the dollar should drop further against the ¥en, but hardly any more (if at all) against the euro.

I don't have much of a play for the yuan; I refuse to invest in a country, like Russia and China, that can and probably will screw you at any time! So, all that is left are direct money plays— you can buy CDs denominated in renmimbi (http://www.everbank.com/main.asp?idpage=pro_mscd&affid=eb&referID=11600). But, I am not comfortable with a pure FX play. I know when I am out of my league, even for 'trifling' amounts (anything less than a billion in FX).

If you have the nerves and stomach for it (50% moves are not uncommon), you can also play the PMs.

Jun 22, 2006 7:59 AM

Steve Madigan :

Normxxx
I don't know Normxxx. Looking at the Sept Yen chart, it sure looks pretty ugly to me. Even the Yen spot is heading lower. You make the choice. You could be right, we shall see. Here is the Sept Yen chart.
<pre>
0.9400 | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.9400
0.9375 | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.9375|
0.9350 | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | TOp|0.9350|
0.9325 | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.9325|
0.9300 | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.9300|
0.9275 | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.9275|
0.9250 | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | |X| |X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | 0.9250|
0.9225 | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O| | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | 0.9225|
0.9200 | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | 0.9200|
0.9175 | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | |X| |X|O|X|O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | 0.9175|
0.9150 | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | |X|O|X|O| |O|X| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | 0.9150|
0.9125 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | |X|O|X| | |O|X|O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | 0.9125|
0.9100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | |X|O| | | |O|X|O|X| |X| | |•| | | | | | | 0.9100|
0.9075 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | |X| | | | |O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | 0.9075|
0.9050 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| |•| |X| | | | |O| |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | 0.9050|
0.9025 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|•|X| | | | | | |O| |O|X|O| | | | | | | | | 0.9025|
0.9000 O|X| | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X| | | | | | | | |6|X|O| | | | | | | | | 0.9000|
0.8975 O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | |5|O|X|O|X| | | | | | | | |O|•|O| | | | | | | | | 0.8975|
0.8950 O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| |O|X| | | | | | | |•|•| |O| | | | | | | Med|0.8950|
0.8925 O| |O| | | | | | | | | | |X| |X| | |O| | | | | | | |•| | | |O|X| | | | | | | | 0.8925|
0.8900 | |O| | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X| | | | | | | | | |•| | | | |O|X|O| | | | | | | 0.8900|
0.8875 | |O| | |3| | | | | | | |X|O|X| | | | | | | | |•| | | | | |O|X|O| | | | | | | 0.8875|
0.8850 | |O| | |X|O|X| | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | |O| |O| | | | | | | 0.8850|
0.8825 | |O| | |X|O|X|O| | | | |X| | | | | |

Jun 24, 2006 5:39 PM

Steve Madigan :

Somewhere on one of these topic's I had mentioned the AGG (iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond Fund) as a place to put some money. It had given a nice buy signal here just lately, but now we have seen some deterioration. It has just broke two previous bottoms and with no near term support you can you this break as your stop. Bearish price objective 95.80, so there is some room here to fall.
Now with the spread triple bottom break, it does not look so good near term.

AGG (iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond Fund)
<pre>
104.2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 104.2
104.0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 104.0|
103.8 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 103.8|
103.6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 103.6|
103.4 | | | X| |X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 103.4|
103.2 | | | X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 103.2|
103.0 | | | 6|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 103.0|
102.8 | | | X|O|X|7|X| |X| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 102.8|
102.6 | | | X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 102.6|
102.4 | X| |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 102.4|
102.2 | X|O|X|O| |O| |O|X|9|X| | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 102.2|
102.0 | X|O|X| | | | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 102.0|
101.8 | X|5|X| | | | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 101.8|
101.6 | X|O| | | | | |8|X|O| |O| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 101.6|
101.4 | X| | | | | | |O|X| | |O| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 101.4|
101.2 O|X| | | | | | |O|X| | |A| | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 101.2|
101.0 O|X| | | | | | |O| | | |O|X| | | | | |X| |1|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 101.0|
100.8 O| | | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O| | |X| |X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.8|
100.6 | | | | | | | | | | | | O|X|O| | |X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.6|
100.4 | | | | | | | | | | | | O| |O| | |X|O|X|O|||O|X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100.4|
100.2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | O|X| |X|O|X| |||O|X

Jun 24, 2006 10:30 PM

The scenerio I gave you is the preferred scenerio of the G7 exJapan; Japan and China have their own scenerio, which is much less accommodative. It's why I prefer the sidelines when the elephants dance.

Nevertheless, however it works out, I think they can hold it together at least until 2009. After that, le déluge!

The content of any message or post by normxxx anywhere on this site is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. Such is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should always consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

Jun 26, 2006 5:33 AM

Steve Madigan :

Was just looking over the GOOG chart and it has been making higher lows and higher highs of late. Not looking to bad. During the recent market down turn, GOOG did not break the BSL. It did come down some, but no major breaks of trend lines.
Right now we are almost right in the middle of the trading band at 396, which might not be a bad place to get on.
The only thing I don't like is the stop is quite far away at 376 for a triple bottom break or even the trend line is farther away at 360. These are the down falls that I see right now.
RS is looking good against the market and its peers. In fact RS to the market just reversed back into X's. There has been some debate on where this stock belongs as far as sectors go and right now it is in the Internet sector and it is positive.
Overall market risk is still high right now so options would be the play.
Just some thoughts on the mighty google...Here are the charts.
4 pt default chart on Google
<pre>
484 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |484
480 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |480|
476 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |476|
472 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |472|
468 O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 468|
464 O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 464|
460 O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | TOp|460|
456 O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 456|
452 O|X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 452|
448 O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 448|
444 O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 444|
440 O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 440|
436 O|X|O|X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 436|
432 O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 432|
428 O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 428|
424 O|X|O| |O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 424|

Jun 26, 2006 11:47 AM

Steve Madigan :

Yep, it sure does. Has come down and touched it many times and bounces right off.
If we could get a little pullback on this 2 pt chart, it might not be to bad, say a sept or Oct call...
Get a little pullback to say the mid of the 10w at 396 or so, might look pretty good...
2 pt chart GOOG
<pre> 
458 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |458
456 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |456|
454 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |454|
452 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |452|
450 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 450|
448 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 448|
446 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 446|
444 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 444|
442 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 442|
440 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 440|
438 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 438|
436 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 436|
434 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 434|
432 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 432|
430 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 430|
428 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 428|
426 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 426|
424 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 424|
422 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 422|
420 | | | | | | | | | | | | | X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 420|
418 | | | | | | | | | X| | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 418|
416 | | | | | | | | | X|O| | |X|5| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 416|
414 | | | | | | | X| |X|O| | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 414|
412 | | | | | | | X|O|X|O|X| |X|O| | |

Jun 26, 2006 1:19 PM

Steve Madigan :

Here is an interesting chart...
CBST (Cubist Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ), in the Drug sector. This stock has over doubled since 5/05, which ain't bad. I wish I would have been in it from then, and that didn't happen. It did pop up on a search I did and looking at the chart it doesn't look to bad.
Here are the facts. The drug sector is unfavored right now which is a definite negative. But...it has only moved back to the mid of the 10w during all of the downward move of late in the market. RS to the market and its peers is positive. It has been adding X's since 6/15 and more today...
I show these of interest only... not a recommendation to buy/sell. For information only. When they pop up in certain searches that I do, I put them out here. Like GOOG, DIOD. These are from previous post. You make up your own mind.
So, let see some charts...
.5 chart of CBST
<pre> 
28.5 | | | 28.5
28.0 | | | 28.0
27.5 | | | 27.5
27.0 | | | 27.0
26.5 | | | X 26.5
26.0 | | | X O 26.0
25.5 | | | X O 25.5
25.0 |---|-----------------|-------X-------X-O--------- 25.0
24.5 | | | X X O X O 24.5
24.0 | | | 3 O X O X O 24.0
23.5 | | X X O X O 5 X O 23.5
23.0 | | X X O X O O X O X 6 x 23.0
22.5 | | X O 1 O X 4 X O X O X Med 22.5
22.0 | | X X O X O X O X O X O X 22.0
21.5 | | X X O X C X O X O X O X O X 21.5
21.0 | | X O X O X O X O X O X O X O X 21.0
20.5 | | X O B O O | 2 X O O X O 20.5
20.0 |---|-----X-A-X-------|-O-----------O-X----------- 20.0
19.5 | | X O X | O X 19.5
19.0 | | X O X | O 19.0
18.5 | | 9 O X | 18.5
18.0 | | X O X | 18.0
17.5 | | 8 O X | 17.5
17.0 | | X O | •

Jun 26, 2006 1:41 PM

Steve Madigan :

Just wanted to give you a quick update on the post a couple of days ago on FXE...
The chart has reversed up nicely right off of the trendline. Now we will need to see if it holds. A reversal back into O's and a print of 125 would not bold well for FXE. A break of 127 could take this to new all time highs. Time will tell...
Here is the chart
FXE chart
<pre> 
130.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 130.50
130.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 130.25|
130.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 130.00|
129.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 129.75|
129.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | | | 129.50|
129.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | |X| |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | 129.25|
129.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | |X| |X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | 129.00|
128.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X| | | |X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | 128.75|
128.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X| |X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | 128.50|
128.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|6|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | 128.25|
128.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| |O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | 128.00|
127.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | |O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | 127.75|
127.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | |O|X|O|X|O| |O| |O| | | | | | | | | | | 127.50|
127.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | |O| |O| | | | | |O| | | | | | | | | | | 127.25|
127.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O| | | | | | | | | | | 127.00|
126.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |5| | | | | | | | | | |O| | |X| | | | | | Med|126.75|
126.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O|X| |X|O| | | | | | | 126.50|
126.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | 126.25|
126.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O|X| | | | | | 126.00|
125.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O| |O|X| | | | | | 125.75|
125.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O| | | |O|X| | | | | | 125.50|
125.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O| | | | | | | 125.25|

Jun 27, 2006 8:44 AM

Steve Madigan :

This is an interesting chart. During the down ward move of the market LRCX came down to its support level around the 41 area. Did not break down, which is good. Looks to me like a print of 47 would move this stock to higher prices. RS is still in O's, but if it would move to the 47 number then I think you might see a switch in the RS to positive. 47 is right in the middle of the trading band. I will keep an eye on this one for the future. It is not quite ready to me right now. It is outperforming its peers in the Semi sector by the way. Looking at the middle chart the .5 chart, you can see that the print of 47 would break a spread quad top and also the bearish resistance line.
Here are the charts. First chart is the 1 pt chart. Next is the .5 and finally is the RS chart vs the SPXEWI. Here goes...
<pre>
57 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | TOp|57|
56 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 56| |
55 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 55| |
54 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 54| |
53 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | 53| |
52 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | 52| |
51 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | 51| |
50 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | |5|O| | | | | | | | | 50| |
49 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | ||| | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | 49| |
48 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | |2| | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | 48| |
47 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | |X|O| | | | | | | Med|47| |
46 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | |X|O|X| |X| | | | | | 46| |
45 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | |X|O|3| |X| |4|O|X|O|X| | | | | | 45| |
44 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X| | | | | | 44| |
43 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|6|X|O| | | | | | | 43| |
42 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | |X|O| |O|X|O| |O| | | | | | | | | 42| |
41 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | |X| | |O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 41| |
40 | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | |X| | |

Jun 27, 2006 2:50 PM

Steve Madigan :

This is just another opinion, and we will just have to wait and see what happens. You may be right that the bottom has been put in since it did get pretty washed out at 28. But anyway here goes.
The BP is a great indicator and one that I use frequently. For those who don't know, what it is, one stock, one vote. So once a stock gives, say a PnF buy that is its vote. It could have 10 more buys, but it has already voted. The only time it gets to vote again is when it gives a sell signal, and that would be its vote. For example...you have 100 stocks and 50 of them are on PnF buy signals, you would divide the 50/100 and then multiply by 100 to get a % and you have 50%. This is then plotted on the chart.
So how does this compare to the DOW, NASDAQ or S&P. It doesn't compare. All of these indexes are either CAP weighted or PRICE weithted...In the DOW the higher priced stocks have more votes and the other 2 the stocks with the largest CAPITALIZATION weight have more votes. So in these indexes an handful of stocks can move the indexes a lot.
So in the charts below, I see the NDX making new highs ever since say OCT (A) of 2002. Beautiful pattern. Followed that trend line all the way up. Higher highs and higher lows.
What I see when I look at the BPNDX I see this making lower highs since June (6) of 2003. This meaning that fewer and fewer stocks were going on buy signals and the index was moving to new highs. Not to good of a thing.
The BPNDX did move below 30 in O's, which indicates a some what of a "washed out" condition. That could be the bottom.
We did see the reversal back into X's in June (6) of 2006. Will it keep moving higher. Will see... We really need to hold that trend line that we are flirting with right now. It needs to hold that 1500 level on the 25 pt chart. 1475 would not be a good thing.
We may have to retest that 30 level again on the BPNDX one more time buy we shall see.
The NDX is in beginning stages of what is called a shakeout pattern. If it holds and does not move lower at 1525 the 3 box reversal to 1600 would indicate a buy signal. That would start the shakeout pattern. The reversal to me is what we need to go long here.
Here are the charts...
First the 25 pt NDX chart and second the BPNDX chart. 2 pts per box.
<pre> 
1850 | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | ||| | ||| | | | | | | | | | 1850
1825 | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | ||| |

Jun 28, 2006 11:06 PM

Steve Madigan :

Well the FXE reversed again back to O's and is testing the trend line one more time. Lets see if it holds. A print of 125 would not be a good thing for the FXE. That would be another sell and a break of the trendline.
Here is the chart. RS is still positive.
FXE .25 chart
<pre>
130.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 130.50
130.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 130.25|
130.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 130.00|
129.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 129.75|
129.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 129.50|
129.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | |X| |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 129.25|
129.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | |X| |X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 129.00|
128.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X| | | |X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 128.75|
128.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X| |X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 128.50|
128.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|6|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 128.25|
128.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| |O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 128.00|
127.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | |O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 127.75|
127.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | |O|X|O|X|O| |O| |O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 127.50|
127.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | |O| |O| | | | | |O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 127.25|
127.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O| | | | | | | | | | | | | 127.00|
126.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |5| | | | | | | | | | |O| | |X| | | | | | | | Med|126.75|
126.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O|X| |X|O| | | | | | | | | 126.50|
126.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O|X| | | | | | | | 126.25|
126.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | 126.00|
125.75 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O| |O|X|O| | | | | | | 125.75|
125.50 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | |O| | | |O|X|O| | | | | | | 125.50|
125.25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O|•| | | | | | | | 125.25|
125.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | | | | |•|•| | | | | | |

Jun 29, 2006 4:54 AM

Steve Madigan :

Hello,

Here is the chart for the SEP06 contract. It is showing a bearish triangle. This bearish triangle was made with the 1250 print. But I do have an alert that we closed up on the day, so this should reverse back to X's tomorrow, if it doesn't print a 1246 and in that case the chart would continue to be in O's.
I was looking at the early morning trading of this contract and it is trading at 1261.70. If it opens there the chart will reverse back to X's. We shall see...
<pre>
1350 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1350
1348 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1348|
1346 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1346|
1344 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1344|
1342 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1342|
1340 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1340|
1338 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1338|
1336 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1336|
1334 | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | |X|O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1334|
1332 | | | | | | | |X| |X|O|X| | | |X|O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1332|
1330 X| | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O| | |X|O| | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1330|
1328 X|O| | |X| |X| |X|O|X|O|X|O|X| |X|O| | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1328|
1326 X|O|X| |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|5|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1326|
1324 X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1324|
1322 X|O|X|O|X|O|4|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| |O| | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | 1322|
1320 X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | |O| | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | 1320|
1318 X|O| |O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | | | |O| | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | 1318|
1316 X| | |O|X|O| |O|X|O|X| | | | | | |O| | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | 1316|
1314 X| | |O|X| | |O| |O|X| | | | | |•|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | 1314|
1312 X| | |O| | | | | |O|X| | | | |•| |O|X| | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | 1312|
1310 X| | | | | | | | |O|X| | | |•| | |O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | 1310|
1308 X| | |

Jun 29, 2006 5:23 AM

Steve Madigan :

I was just looking over a few charts and noticed that GLD has reversed back into O's. Could we see a test of the trendline at 54.5? Who know's...
Right now it is bid at 57.85. Slightly higher than yesterday's close...
If we were to get a print of 59.5 from here, that would be a buy signal and possibly a good opportunity to get in. Might see a rally from there to the Mid of the 10 week trading band at 63-64 area.
Will just have to wait and see how it plays out.
Here is the chart.
GLD w/ .5 chart
<pre> 
74.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |74.0
73.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |73.5|
73.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |73.0|
72.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |72.5|
72.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |72.0|
71.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |71.5|
71.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |71.0|
70.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |70.5|
70.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X|O|X| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |70.0|
69.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |69.5|
69.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |69.0|
68.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |68.5|
68.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |68.0|
67.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X|O| |O| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |67.5|
67.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X| | |O|X| | | | | | | | | | | | | |67.0|
66.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X| | |O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | | | |66.5|
66.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X| | |O|X|O|X| | | | | | | | | | | |66.0|
65.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |5| | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | |65.5|
65.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X| | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | |65.0|
64.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X| | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | | | | | |64.5|
64.0 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | |X| | |O| |O|X|O|X| | | | | | | | | |64.0|
63.5 |||| | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | |X| |X| | | | |O| |6|X|O| | | | | | |Med|63.5|
63.0

Jun 29, 2006 10:25 AM

Steve Madigan :

This a test to see if the charts work...
<A href=http://208.149.108.58/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1U60NK2QCD.N&symbol=cat|.5&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart>Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT)
</a>beartoes, I hope this works.

Jun 29, 2006 10:35 AM

Im Smile :

beartoes,

nice charts, I like better than the links I posted on the intel thread.

Jun 29, 2006 10:57 AM

Im Smile :

Beartoes,

As though we did not know this before, it really shows how dramatic scale impacts these charts

I just did Intel and look at the .5 vs the traditional in the price objective as well as the resulting charts.

<a href="http://206.155.168.124/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1U60NK2QCD.N&symbol=intc|.5&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart" target="_TOP"> Intel 0.5x3 PnF</a>

Bearish Price Obj: 17.00 Bearish Reward to Risk 0.58

vs...

<a href="http://208.149.108.72/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1U60NK2QCD.N&symbol=INTC&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart" target="_TOP"> Intel 1x3 traditional PnF</a>

Bearish Price Obj: 10.00 Bearish Reward to Risk 2.59

It really points up how important the scale you use is to the resulting price objective and the resulting chart results.

I like all the data analysis these charts provide also ie. reward risk , and colors are really nice.

Great job Beartoes!

Jun 29, 2006 11:08 AM

Steve Madigan :

What I really find fascinating is the .5 chart price objective was done off of the sell in Aug 2005. 28-11=17. Amazing, hit it right on the nose and then reversed up into X's.
<A href=http://206.155.168.118/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1U60NK2QCD.N&symbol=intc|.5&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart>INTC on .5 Scale</a>beartoes

Jun 29, 2006 11:50 AM

Im Smile :

yup.

These charts helped a lot on my last buy at 16.75.

Jun 29, 2006 1:08 PM

I just ran INTC on this program; it's projecting a bottom of 10!

(I think maybe I'll buy around there!)

______________
The content of any message or post by normxxx anywhere on this site is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. Such is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should always consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.

Jun 29, 2006 1:34 PM

Steve Madigan :

Lets take a look at Carrier Access Corp (CACS) and see what we got.Here is the default chart for CACS.<A href=http://206.155.168.120/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1U60NK2QCD.N&symbol=CACS&source=showchart&type=TREND&country=&amp>CACS default chart</a>As you can see from the chart the overall trend of the chart is negative. When it broke down over the red trendline it went negative. It has rallied here of late, starting in Dec 2005.Now if we take a look at the .25 chart. <pre> 16.00 | | | 16.00
15.75 | | | 15.75
15.50 | | | 15.50
15.25 | • | | 15.25
15.00 |-X-•-------------------------------|-------------|--------------- 15.00
14.75 | X O • | | 14.75
14.50 | X O • | | 14.50
14.25 | X O • | | 14.25
14.00 | X O • | | 14.00
13.75 | X O • | | 13.75
13.50 | X O X • | | 13.50
13.25 | X O X O • | | 13.25
13.00 | X O X O • | | 13.00
12.75 | X O O • | | 12.75
12.50 | 7 O • | | 12.50
12.25 | X • O • | | 12.25
12.00 | X • O • | | 12.00
11.75 O • O • | | 11.75
11.50 • O • | | 11.50
11.25 | O • | | 11.25
11.00 | O • | 11.00
10.75 | O X | • | 10.75
10.50 | O X O • | 10.50
10

Jun 29, 2006 2:08 PM

Im Smile :

already discussed http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/29-38#message_5

scale is important for PnF

but you may get your chance if INTC decides to do a 7:1 split.

Jun 29, 2006 2:54 PM

stocktiger :

7:1 INTC split? Ok Smile time to share those brownies you are eating. Obviously you are kidding and still predicting a AMD crossover at 20. Time will tell.

I know some overseas Intel folks are coming to the USA for training but I'll let you guess which country they are training for (new Fab).

PF chart still questionable and I trust BearToes analysis. We'll see how this shakes out, if it hits 13 I'm buying some.

Jun 29, 2006 7:46 PM

Im Smile :

if it is training on 65nm they must be from Ireland (new Fab) just a guess.

about half of Intel's production now is 65nm

I was at an apple store the other day and all the machines had Intel dual core. Nice looking lap machines. Merom should be out soon.

I hope you are able to buy some at 13, but I have a hunch you will only have an opportunity to buy AMD at 13 :)

Jun 30, 2006 5:24 AM

Steve Madigan :

We are seeing some improvement in the crude charts. The first chart is NYMEX Crude Oil (CRUDE). As you can see from the chart we have the reversal back into X's. It held the 69 level and has now turned up and we need a print of 73 for a double top buy <A href=http://208.149.108.6/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1U70EXO4ZC.N&symbol=crude|1&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart>NYMEX Crude Oil (CRUDE) default </a> The Crude Oil Continuous (CL/) chart takes the front month contract and adds it to the chart, so it is like a running total. This chart is showing signs of strength, with the triple top break at 73.5. Here is the chart. <A href=http://208.149.108.62/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1U70EXO4ZC.N&symbol=CL/&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart>Crude Oil Continuous (CL/) default</a> Demand seems to be in control of this chart. Weekly momentum has turned positive also.
If I take a look at the Crude Oil Continuous (CL/) chart on the 1 pt scale we can see that a print of 74 would give a triple top break and turn this chart into where demand is also in control. <A href=http://208.149.108.62/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1U70EXO4ZC.N&symbol=cl/|1&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart>Crude Oil Continuous (CL/) 1 pt. chart</a> So let's see what happens and if we get that 74 print today. The price objective of the CL/ default chart is 84, so you can see we have got some room to move to the upside. It certainly seems that demand is starting to come back into the picture. We could be seeing much higher crude prices over the summer as well as higher gas prices due to this.

Jun 30, 2006 5:40 AM

Steve Madigan :

Just wanted to show you the chart for the spiral trading, so you can see where we are.
Here is the chart. <A href=http://208.149.108.58/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1U70EXO4ZC.N&symbol=sp/u6|5&type=TREND&country=&source=none>S&P 500 Sept. 06 (SP/U6) 5 pt chart </a> This 5 point chart slows it down a bit to see the different support/resistence area's. 1285 will put it right on the bearish risistence line and a print of 1290 would move this option to higher ground, putting demand clearly in control. Everyone has been waiting for the tripe top break and we finally got it yesterday. We are still not out of the woods. The above numbers are critical. 1290 would move the option right to the middle of the trading band. Let's see what happens over the next week.

Jun 30, 2006 7:45 AM

stocktiger :

Hey Smile, kind of wish I would have bought in the 16's but who really knows. I'm definetly not buying in now, suspect when Intel announces their plans publicly the price will bounce up ST. You should realize a nice return.

The training I referred to was for Israelis but I'm sure some Irish will be involved as well. Since both countries have significantly lower salaries (and no EPA), LT this is not good for USA workers.

Jul 5, 2006 5:19 AM

Steve Madigan :

I use the Bullish % as my main guide. NYSEBP is the main coach. This has just reversed back into X's along with the OPTIONABLEBP is back in X's also. The one that is having the problem is the OTCBP and it is not even close to switching back into X's. SPXBP is in X's too. So the thing to do is right now stay away from tech...until the OTCBP flips back to X's. Here are the charts:
<A href=http://206.155.168.122/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UC0GZDCZC.N&symbol=BPNYSE>NYSE BP</a> 
<A href=http://206.155.168.118/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UC0HDOHXY.N&symbol=BPOPTI>OPTIONABLE BP</a> 
<A href=http://206.155.168.118/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UC0HDOHXY.N&symbol=BPSPX>SPX BP</a> 
<A href=http://206.155.168.118/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UC0HDOHXY.N&symbol=BPOTC>OTC BP</a> Now the question is where is the market going to go from here? That is a good question...one that I don't have the answer for. But what I do know is the risk is less today than it was a week ago and some of my cash that has been waiting is now heading back into the markets, due to the BP's being in X's. Can these change back to O's as fast? You bet they can and when they do I will head back to cash. But until then, trust your indicators and move forward... Don't forget...What is...is I don't try to predict the indicators, I just follow what they tell me. <a href= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1>Beartoes</a> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/js/counter.js?site=s25PnFCharts"></script><noscript><a href="http://s25.sitemeter.com/stats.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" target="_top"><img src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/meter.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" alt="Site Meter" border="0"/></a></noscript>

Jul 5, 2006 9:13 AM

Steve Madigan :

I saw RMBS up today and it caught my attention. I checked the charts and it came down and hit right on the trendline and bounced right off. RS stinks which is understandable coming down from the highs to where it is now. It is starting to stabilize a bit now. But that trend chart is interesting. Here it is...
<A href=http://208.149.108.62/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UC0HDOHXY.N&symbol=RMBS&source=showchart&type=TREND&amp>RMBS default chart</a> I guess you could play this one with some options and stop out at 19.5 which would create a sell as well as break that trendline. Just thought I would show this, found it interesting...
<a href= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1>Beartoes</a> 
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Jul 5, 2006 6:02 PM

Tim Trainor :

I was going to ask you to run a PNF on RMBS, as this is one I've traded since 1999, mostly profitably. I rebought recently at an avg price of 21.75, and am trying to decide where to start taking profits. If the market rallies, I expect this one to return to the 30 plus area.
I bought on the idea that we had reached a 60% retracement of the recent highs, and used only "gambling money", <1% of portfolio.

Jul 5, 2006 6:19 PM

Steve Madigan :

I was looking over a few charts of stocks that were on the move today in the down market and Genentech, Inc. (DNA) caught my eye. I thought I would share with you what I found. Maybe it will fit into your portfolio since the offense is on the field and putting cash to work now is the right thing to do. With that in mind maybe Genentech, Inc. (DNA) will be a fit for you.First the sector of BIOM is unfavored. Short term indicators for the sector have reversed back to positive (10,30,Momentum), but the BP is still in O's but improving and has a way to go before it changes to X's. So that is a negative for sure but the stock is performing better than its peers with PEER RS in X's. Momentum for the stock has turned positive for about 2 weeks now. Earning are due out on 7/11/06, and who knows how the stock will react. Your guess is as good as mine. Good earnings and the stock goes down, good earnings and the stock goes up, bad earnings and the stock goes up, bad earnings and the stock goes down. Will have to wait and see on that one.We do have good support at the 76 level as you will see. The stock has been trading from 76 to 83 for a couple of months and has just broke out from that range. Lets look at the charts: <A href=http://206.155.168.120/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UC0HDOHXY.N&symbol=dna|.5&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart>.5 DNA chart</a> 
<A href=http://208.149.108.62/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UC0HDOHXY.N&symbol=DNA&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart>Default DNA chart</a> 
<A href=http://206.155.168.122/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UC0HDOHXY.N&symbol=dna|2&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart>2 pt DNA chart</a> As you can see on the 2 pt chart the break at 84 giving the buy signal was a nice move today. Stop out at 74 which would be a triple bottom break on 2 pt chart. Stop at 75 on default chart. Price objective is 102 on the 2 pt chart RS chart DNA vs SPXEWI 
<pre>
6.600 | | | | 6.600
6.392 | | | | 6.392
6.191 | | | | 6.191
5.996 | | | | 5.996
5.807 | | | X B | 5.807
5.624 | | | 8 O A O 5.624
5.447 | | | 7 O X O 5.447
5.276 | | | 6 9 X 1 5.276
5.110 | | | X O O 5.110
4.949 | |

Jul 6, 2006 6:18 AM

Lcha :

Beartoes, whenever I click on one of your PnF links I get a page that says, "You've been bumped". Basically denied access. Just a heads up.

Jul 6, 2006 6:19 AM

Steve Madigan :

I was looking for a Gold play other than the Ishare GLD and came accross Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX). Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) came right down to the trendline during the retreat of Gold. No breakdown, which is great. Right now it is just at the mid of the 10 week band and in X's, ready to go... Weekly momentum has been negative for 7 weeks and it usually stays P/N for 6-8 weeks. 31.67 will flip it to positive. The chart looks good also. Like I said before following the trendline to the money and the trendline has been in effect since 8/04 so it is a nice long term trend. Lets take a look at the chart.
<A href=http://206.155.168.120/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UD0FYC867.N&symbol=ABX&type=TREND&country=&source=showchart>Default ABX chart</a>
<A href=http://206.155.168.120/cgi-bin/foxweb.exe/fwchart?sessionfile=1UD0FYC867.N&symbol=ABX&source=showchart&type=rs&country=&usernum=>RS chart ABX vs SPXEWI</a> So you can see that this looks pretty good. RS positive and trend chart positive. All systems go... Hope you enjoyed and maybe this will fit into your portfolio.

Jul 7, 2006 3:31 AM

Steve Madigan :

Icha, thanks. That is what was happening to me also. I had one of my buddies stocktiger check and he said it was ok. But I just checked again and I was bumped. Thanks for the heads up. Will have to figure something else out on how to post the charts.
thanks again icha
beartoes

Jul 7, 2006 3:46 AM

Steve Madigan :

<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=DNA,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!.5!!2!20]&pref=G>dna chart</a> If someone could let me know if they can read the above chart, it would be greatly appreciated...
Thanks

Jul 7, 2006 6:54 AM

Lcha :

Yes, I could read the chart.

Jul 7, 2006 7:06 AM

Steve Madigan :

It looks like we have an uh-oh, with a reversal on the .25 chart. Take a look...
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=INTC,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!.25!!2!20]&pref=G>INTC .25 chart</a> And it ain't looking to good for AMD...Take a look.. <A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=amd,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!0.25!!2!20]&pref=G>AMD .25 chart</a> Broke support on the default chart at 23... <A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=AMD,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G>AMD default chart</a> Just a quick take....

Jul 8, 2006 11:33 PM

Im Smile :

I just saw this tonight for the first time. Prior to this everytime I pulled a chart on AMD the PO was above 20.

The bearish PO has broken 20:

<a href="http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/Pnf.asp?S=amd&Y=U&B=.5&N=A&C=2" target="_TOP"> AMD PnF .5 PO 18</a>

Bearish Price Obj. (Revised): 18.00
P&F Pattern: Descending Triple Bottom Breakdown

Did I mention AMD insiders dumped big time:

AMD Insider Purchases - Last 6 Months
<table border>
<tr><th>NET SHARE ACTIVITY</th><th>Shares</th><th>Transaction</th></tr>
<tr><td>Purchases</td><td align="center">N/A</td><td align="center">0</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sales</td><td align="center">878,771</td><td align="center">54</td></tr>
<tr><td>Net Shares Purch (Sold)</td><td align="center">(878,771)</td><td align="center">54</td></tr>
<tr><td>Total Insider Shares Held</td><td align="center">556.72K</td><td align="center">N/A</td></tr>
<tr><td>% Net Shares Purch (Sold)</td><td align="center">(61.2%)</td><td align="center">N/A</td></tr>
</table>

_____________________

I agree with you on Intel, if Intel stumbles on these new rollouts and blows the opportunity for headcount reduction & dumping nonprofitable units Ortellini and crew will be further down the toilet along with intel stock price.

Jul 9, 2006 7:48 PM

Steve Madigan :

I was looking over the SPX chart and on the 5 pt chart it looks like it is setting up for what is called a bullish catapult formation. This happen when a triple top is broken and then it reverses back into O's (which is where it is now) and on the reversal back into X's is when the catapult starts. When the catapult exceeds the previous col. of X's the catapult is complete. This is a very powerful formation and highly successful if it occurs. We will just have to wait and see.
<pre> 
1,345.00 | | | 1,345.00
1,340.00 | | | 1,340.00
1,335.00 | | | 1,335.00
1,330.00 | | + | 1,330.00
1,325.00 | | X + | 1,325.00
1,320.00 | | 5 O + | 1,320.00
1,315.00 | | X X O + | 1,315.00
1,310.00 | | X X X X O X O + | 1,310.00
1,305.00 | | X O X O X O X O X O + | 1,305.00
1,300.00 | | X O X O 4 O X O O + | 1,300.00
1,295.00 | | X X X O O O X + O + | 1,295.00
1,290.00 | X X O X O X O X + O X + | 1,290.00
1,285.00 | X O X X O 3 O X O + O X O + | 1,285.00
1,280.00 | X O X 2 X O O X + + O X X O + 7 | 1,280.00
1,275.00 | X O X O X O X + O X O X O + X O | 1,275.00
1,270.00 | X O X O X X O + O X X O X O X + X O | 1,270.00
1,265.00 | X O X O X O X + O X O X O 6 O X O + X O | 1,265.00<
1,260.00 | X O O X O X + O X O X O O X O X + X | 1,260.00
1,255.00 | 1 O O + O O X O O X O X X + X | 1,255.00
1,

Jul 17, 2006 6:31 AM

Steve Madigan :

The bullish catapult that I had mentioned above has been voided, due to the fact that the 5 pt chart has broken the bullish support line and is now again in a negative trend.Here is the chart <A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SPX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!5!!2!20]&pref=G>5 pt SPX chart</a>

Jul 17, 2006 7:09 AM

Steve Madigan :

I have been out of town for the last week at the Jr. world golf championships with my son, who finished tied for 7th out of 186 of the best boys golfer 15-17 in the world.Coming back, I had a bunch of charts to update and to my surprise, I found some interesting info.I track 40 sectors with various indicators for each sector, both long and short term indicators. Now the short term indicators definitely show that we are due for a bounce. But the longer term indicators, I would have thought would have fallen out of bed and they didn't. The BP's gained 1 last week from the week before and the PT's remained the same (positive trend-stocks trading above their bullish support line).Let me show you the data. The first line is the weekly date, next are the number of sector who's BP is in X's, next is the number of sector's who's PT are in X's, then the sectors who's 10 weeks are in X's and finally the number of sectors who's 30 weeks are in X's. As you can see from the last 2 lines we are due for a bounce with the oversold condition of the 10w and the 30w. But what was interesting is the line under the date the BP's gained and X over the week before and the next line the PT remained steady at 5.Here let me show you.
060609 060616 060623 060630 060707 060714
2.0 2.0 4.0 10.0 12.0 13.0
8.0 2.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 5.0
4.0 20.0 26.0 39.0 17.0 2.0
3.0 24.0 18.0 38.0 28.0 0.0
I thought this was interesting in that as bad as the markets performed last week, I would have thought that the above data would have shown a decline, but it didn't. So what does it all mean.What it says to me is that if you are in the right sectors you can make some $$. There are some sectors out there that are moving higher. I am sure you can guess which ones those are. I thought this was interesting and thought I would share it with you. I hoped you found it interesting as I did. I am not sure how to get the columns to line up with the dates so you are just going to have to shift them over as you read it, sorry...

Jul 19, 2006 5:21 AM

Steve Madigan :

As I wrote the above the other day, the bp's and pt's were hanging tough...But not anymore...bps from 13 to now 8 and pts from 5 to 3 currently. Also the Optionable bp has reversed back into O's, not a good thing I assure you.risk is the market has been ratcheted up with these reversals and $$$ Cash should be king for a while.The NYSE bp has not reversed into O's yet, but is very close and one more down day and we should see that happen. The Hi/low indicators have also reversed into O's matching the 10w in O's already.Chances of seeing lower prices a head is highly likely. I will keep you posted of any changes

Jul 19, 2006 5:54 AM

Steve Madigan :

Crude has sure been taking a hit of late. Is this normal or due to the ME stuff going on. Lets see if the charts can shed any light on this.I tried to find this chart on stockcharts.com and had no success, so I will just paste it here. As you can see from the chart, crude spiked straight up to 77 which was the top of the trading band. It makes sense to see a pull back from there. Coming back to the 71 area as long as we don't break the 69 support seems to be quite normal (statistical). Here is the chart:

81 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 81
80 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 80|
79 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 79|
78 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 78|
77 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | TOp|77|
76 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | 76|
75 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | | | 75|
74 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | | | |X| | | | | |7| | | | | | | 74|
73 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | |X| |X|O|X| | | |X| | | | | | | 73|
72 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | |X|O|5|O|X|O|X| |X| | | | | | | 72|
71 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X| | | | | Med|71|
70 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ||| | | |X|O|X|O| |O|X|O|X| | | | | | | 70|
69 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | |X| | | | | ||| | | |X|O| | | |O| |6| | | | | | | | 69|
68 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| | | | |X| | | |4| | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | 68|
67 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X| | | |X|O| | |X| | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | 67|
66 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | |X|9|X|O| | |X|O| | |X| | | | | |•| | | | | | | BOt|66|
65 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | |X|O|X|O| | |X|2| | |X| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | 65|
64 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | |X|O| |A| | |X|O| | |X| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | 64|
63 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | |X| | |O| | |X|O|3| |X| | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | 63|
62 | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | |X| | |O| | |1|O|X|O|X| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | 62|
61 | | | | || | | | | | | | | |X| |8| | |O|X| |X|O|X|O|X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 61|
60 | | | | || | | | | | | |X| |7|O|X| | |O|C|O|X|O|X|O|•| | | | | | |

Jul 19, 2006 4:36 PM

Steve Madigan :

Kirk, sorry for the delay in answering your above question.The only way we would get a new objective (bullish) would be if we get a buy signal at the 1285 level. That would then give us a new bullish price objective (approx 1340) would be my estimate...<a href= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1>Beartoes</a>

Jul 19, 2006 4:54 PM

Steve Madigan :

Well, since the bullish catapult got nulled when it broke the bullish support line, we have the possibility of a bearish catapult. In the SPX looking at the 5 point chart. We can see the triple bottom sell at 1235 for the index and 1245 for the Sept SPX... As long as we don't break the bearish resistance line at 1285 for the Sept and the 1280 level for the index, we have the chance for it on the next reversal down. A majority of the time when this occurs they are powerful moves that can take these much lower.Just an observation. Will have to wait and see if it happens. If the above limits are exceeded the pattern is nulled and all bets are off...Here are the charts...
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SPX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!5.0!!2!20]&pref=G>SPX 5 point chart</a>
SPX SEPT 5 point chart

1360 | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1360
1355 | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1355|
1350 | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1350|
1345 | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1345|
1340 | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | | | |X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1340|
1335 | | | | | || | | | | | | | | | | |X| |5|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1335|
1330 | | | | | || | | | | | | |X| |4| |X|O|X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1330|
1325 | | | | | || | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1325|
1320 | | | | | || | | | | | | |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1320|
1315 | | | | | X| | | | | |X| |X|O| |O|X|O| |O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1315|
1310 | | | | | X|O|X| | | |X|O|X| | |O|X| | |O| | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1310|
1305 | | | | | X|O|X|O| | |X|O|X| | |O|X| |•|O| | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | 1305|
1300 | X| |X| |X|O|X|O| | |X|3|X| | |O| |•| |O| | |X| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | 1300|
1295 | C|O|X|O|X|O|X|2|X| |X|O| | | | |•| | |O| | |X|O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | 1295|
1290 O|X|O|X|O|1|O|X|O|X|O|X| | | | |•| | | |O|X| |X|O| | | | | |•|•| | | | | | | | | 1290|
1285 O|X|O| |O|X|O| |O|X|O|X| | | |•| | | | |O|X|O|6|O| | | | | | |X|•| | | | | | | | 1285|
1280 O| | | |O|X| | |O| |O| | | |•| | | | | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | |X|O|•| | | | | | | 1280|
1275 | | | | O||| | | | | | | |•| | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | |X|O| | | |

Jul 20, 2006 5:00 AM

Steve Madigan :

Looks like the 10700 is a pretty good support area. It has held 3 times now. This time it reversed right off of it and the bullish support line. This is using the 100 point per box scale... Here take a look...
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$INDU,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!100!!2!20]&pref=G>DJIA 100 point scale</a> Lets see if we can sustain some kind of rally... <a href= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1>Beartoes</a> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/js/counter.js?site=s25PnFCharts"></script><noscript><a href="http://s25.sitemeter.com/stats.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" target="_top"><img src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/meter.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" alt="Site Meter" border="0"/></a></noscript>

Jul 20, 2006 6:11 AM

Steve Madigan :

I was just looking at some charts this morning and the SOX caught my eye. Had not been doing very good, but has now pulled right back to the trendline...This could find support all the way down to 360, but the trendline is right at 400 where it is now.With the NASD so crappy, it is hard to decide what to do here. Maybe a long call might be in order...The earnings for the tech's are ok, some good, some bad, so this is a tough decision. Here take a look for yourself...
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SOX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!20!!2!20]&pref=G>SOX 20 point scale</a> Interesting huh... Don't forget that trendline is 3-4 years old. Should be pretty powerful. If it breaks then we are in for trouble in the Tech sector... <a href= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1>Beartoes</a> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/js/counter.js?site=s25PnFCharts"></script><noscript><a href="http://s25.sitemeter.com/stats.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" target="_top"><img src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/meter.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" alt="Site Meter" border="0"/></a></noscript>

Jul 21, 2006 6:44 AM

Steve Madigan :

Yesterday in the semi cap equip discussion, I had mentioned that a break at 40 could be a costly mistake and should carry the stock lower.Well it looks like that is happening. Lrcx is heading lower today early in the trading session. I cold see this heading down to the 32 area, but first stop could be at the bottom of the trading band at 36.Will just have to wait and see.Here is the chart...
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=LRCX,P&listNum=>LRCX default chart</a> I did get in on the put option at 40 which has a nice profit already... <a href= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1>Beartoes</a><script type="text/javascript" src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/js/counter.js?site=s25PnFCharts"></script><noscript><a href="http://s25.sitemeter.com/stats.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" target="_top"><img src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/meter.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" alt="Site Meter" border="0"/></a></noscript>

Jul 21, 2006 9:41 AM

Steve Madigan :

Looking at the default chart of GOOG, it appears that it may have found support at the 380 level for the time being...A print of 376 would, I would guess much lower. Possibly to the 360 area which is the support trend line?
Check out the chart. Could we rally off of the 380 and continue with the GOOG up trend? We will have to wait and see. <A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=GOOG,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!4.0!!2!20]&pref=G>GOOG 4 point (default) chart</a> <a href= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1>Beartoes</a><script type="text/javascript" src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/js/counter.js?site=s25PnFCharts"></script><noscript><a href="http://s25.sitemeter.com/stats.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" target="_top"><img src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/meter.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" alt="Site Meter" border="0"/></a></noscript>

Jul 22, 2006 12:31 PM

Steve Madigan :

With everything looking pretty bleak last week, I thought I would take a look at GLD again.Looking at the .5 chart, we see the high in May of 72, then the drop in June to 55.5, which almost hit the bullish support line, then the most recent rally and now the most current pullback. Will the pullback continue?? Good question...Let's try to figure that question out. Looking at the 1 point chart which is slowing the chart down, we see the same things as above and also this...Each new rally since the May high has made a lower high and now we are heading down again and could we make a lower low. We will see. If it does, chances are that we could see a test of the bullish support line before it is all over.That could take GLD down to the 52 area.Here are the chart.
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=GLD,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!.5!!2!20]&pref=G>GLD .5 point chart (default)</a>
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=GLD,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!1!!2!20]&pref=G>GLD 1 point chart</a> RS is currently negative also. So we will just have to wait and see how this turns out. I have been wrong in the past and will probably be wrong in the future again, so lets see what happens. I have no GLD holdings at this time and until the charts start to show a definitive pattern, I think I will keep it that way for a while.Right now the trend is still positive.

Jul 22, 2006 6:28 PM

Steve Madigan :

I see that on the 5 point chart the price objective of 385 has been met. The price objective is just a guage of how far something might fall measuring from a sell signal. We are also all the way down to the bottom of the trading band of 380. The weekly distribution for the SEMI sector is at a 52% oversold position right now. Not at its lowest level but close. If I look at the 10 point chart the price objective has been exceeded past the 420 PO. The default chart of 20 points is right on the bullish trend line at 400. A print of 380 as mentioned in one of my previous post would not be good. The PO for the 20 point chart is 240 which is the low almost of 2002. Man that could get ugly...Look what happened the last time this bullish trend line was broken in 2002, it never looked back until it was in the basement. Hopefully this won't happen this time, but....who knows.The RS vs the SPXEWI just added another O for another sell signal and that is a really ugly chart.With the NASD in the toilet (all be it the SOX is not helping), we could see lower prices. You don't want any tech issues right now. Looks really bad for the sox.We could see a little rally in around now due to the enormously oversold position it is in. So that would not be out of the question for next week. That might be a good time to sell out of some positions you have and maybe short the index (SOX) when it completes its up leg and take if for a ride probably through the BSL. But who knows. What is..is..So we will just have to wait and see how it turns out. The markets are pretty vulnerable right now.Lets take a look at all the charts mentioned above and you can make the decision...
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SOX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!5!!2!20]&pref=G>SOX 5 point chart</a>
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SOX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!10.0!!2!20]&pref=G>SOX 10 point chart</a>
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SOX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!20.0!!2!20]&pref=G>SOX 20 point chart (default)</a>
RS chart SOX vs SPXEWI

135.9156 | | | | | || | | ||| | | ****||| | | | | | | | 135.9156
127.6203 | | | | | || | | ||| | | ****||| | | | | | | | 127.6203|
119.8313 | | | | | || | | ||| | | ****||| | | | | | | | 119.8313|
112.5176 | | | | | || | | ||| | | ****||| | | | | | | | 112.5176|
105.6504 | X| | | ||| | | ||| | | ****||| | | | | | | | 105.6504|
99.2022 | X|O| | ||| | | ||| | | ****||| | | | | | | |

Jul 22, 2006 6:36 PM

Steve Madigan :

I had talked about this one earlier also in a prior post. The bearish catapult for the SPX has begun when the chart reversed to O's this past week. Not a good thing I assure you. Let's see if it carries through. The catapult will be completed when a print of 1220 happens. Typically this pattern will carry through that point and continue to head lower. Let's just wait and see. Here is the chart again:
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SPX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!5!!2!20]&pref=G>SPX 5 point chart</a>
Have a good one.

Jul 24, 2006 10:08 AM

Steve Madigan :

I was just checking the chart for the s&p mini and it looks like 1272 would give us a new buy signal, according to the chart. That would also break the trendline that dates back to May. Looks like it came right up to 1264 print and did not give us the 1268 print yet...
Here is the chart...

S&P Sept Mini


1356 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1356
1352 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1352|
1348 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1348|
1344 || | | | | | | | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1344|
1340 || | | | | | | | | | | |X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1340|
1336 || | | | | |•| | | | | |X|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1336|
1332 || | | | | |X|•|X| |X| |X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1332|
1328 •| |X| |4| |X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1328|
1324 X|•|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1324|
1320 X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X|5| |O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1320|
1316 X|O|X|O|•|O|•|O|X|O|X| |•|O| | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1316|
1312 ||O|•|•| |•| |O|X|O| |•| |O|X| | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1312|
1308 ||•| | | | | |O|X| |•| | |O|X|O| | | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1308|
1304 || | | | | | |O|X|•| | | |O|X|O| | |X| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1304|
1300 || | | | | | |O|•| | | | |O| |O| | |X|O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1300|
1296 || | | | | | |•| | | | | | | |O| | |X|O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | |1296|
1292 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O|X| |X|O| | | | | |•|•| | | | | | | | | | | |1292|
1288 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | |7|•| | | | | | | | | | |1288|
1284 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | |X|O|•| | | | | | | | | |1284|
1280 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|6|O| | | | | | |X|O|X|•| | | | | | | | |1280|
1276 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O| | | | | | |X|O|X|O|•| | | | | | | |1276|
1272 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O|X| | | | | |X|O|X|O| |•| | | | | | |1272|
1268 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O| |O|X|O|X| | | |X|O| |O|X| | | | | |Med|1268|
1264 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O| | | |O|X|O|X|O|X| |X| | |O|X|O| | | | | | |1264|
1260 || | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |O|X|O|X|O|X|O|X| | |O|X|O|

Jul 24, 2006 11:33 AM

Lcha :

Beartoes, what call letters are you using to get the S&P Sept e-mini chart?

Thanks.

Jul 24, 2006 12:12 PM

Steve Madigan :

I do it through Dorsey Wright.com, not through stockcharts.
beartoes

Jul 24, 2006 1:05 PM

Steve Madigan :

Well it looks like GOOG held that 380 level today and rallied off of it to reverse into X's again. Can the up trend continue. Time will tell.here is the chart
<A href=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=GOOG,P&listNum=>GOOG default chart</a> So if you wanted to play it, now would be ok since the stop is so close and use the 376 print for the stop. Let's see what happens. Today there were several different times that you could have picked this up for under 385. The closer to 380 the better.<a href= http://investment.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/1574/1-1>Beartoes</a><script type="text/javascript" src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/js/counter.js?site=s25PnFCharts"></script><noscript><a href="http://s25.sitemeter.com/stats.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" target="_top"><img src="http://s25.sitemeter.com/meter.asp?site=s25PnFCharts" alt="Site Meter" border="0"/></a></noscript>

Jul 24, 2006 3:36 PM

Steve Madigan :

I am not sure if you have been following the spiral trading thread, but this post in a reference to that thread. It is quite interesting if you wanted to check it out. Now that the spiral is pointing higher and we are now in a long position, this is what I would love to confirm the spiral. Check this out and see if it makes sense to all of you.Today we crossed and closed above the 1266.9 level to put us in a new long position. Looking at the SPX SEPT chart, I would love to see a print of 1270 on the default chart. On the longer term chart I would love to see a print of 1275. 1270 would put us right on the trend line at 1270, even though that would be a buy signal.When we see the print of 1270, I could see some trouble getting through the 1288 level which is the bearish resistance line on the default chart. Here are those 2 charts:S&P 500 SEPT 06 default chart
<pre>
1350 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1350
1348 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1348|
1346 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |1346|
1344 | | | | | •| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1344|
1342 | | | | | X|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1342|
1340 | | | | | X|O|•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1340|
1338 | | | | | X|O| |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1338|
1336 | | | | | X|O| | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1336|
1334 | | | | | X|O| | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1334|
1332 O|X| | | |X|O| | | | |•| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1332|
1330 O|X|O| |