Bradley Siderograph and Astrology
Crawford and astrologosts use it but does it predict the markets?
Nov 29, 2006
What is it?
The Bradley siderograph was developed in the 1940's by Donald Bradley to forecast the stock markets. Bradley assigned numerical values to certain planetary constellations for every day, and the sum is the siderograph. It was originally intended to predict the stock markets. William Eng, a noted technical analyst, singled out the Bradley as the only 'excellent' Timing Indicator in his book, "Technical Analysis of Stocks, Options, and Futures" (source: Astrikos).
Many traders and financial astrologers misunderstand the Bradley siderograph. The Bradley siderograph does not reliably predict the direction but only turning points in the financial markets (stocks, bonds, bonds, commodities) within a time window of +/- 4 calendar days. Some incorrectly report "Bradley inversions" which cannot occur because the Bradley Siderograph does not reliably indicate trend directions. In addition, it is not a timing tool for short-term trends but rather for intermediate-term to longer-term trends because the turning window is +/- four calendar days.
Peter Eliades of "Stock Market Cycles" wrote, "The indicator was devised in the 1940s by Donald Bradley. He assigned numerical values to the position of planetary constellations for each day and used the sum of those calculations to draw a siderograph, the prefix "sidero-" in this case standing for stars or constellations." Eliades also wrote "Theoretically, the dates of the turns in the Bradley are more important than the actual magnitude of the moves, but the recent indications of turns have been eerily accurate."
Kirk's Take
Arch Crawford and Peter Eliades write newsletters that incorporate the Bradley timing system into their models. Neither of these newsletters have good long-term performance.
"The Hulbert Financial Digest " reports in the "Long Term Performance Ratings through June 30, 2006" the following:
- "The Crawford Perspective" has an average annual return of only 4.9% since its 12/31/88 inception. If shorting is allowed, the returns are a negative 7.2% while a buy and hold of the Wilshire5000 over the same period yielded an average annual return of +11.5%!
- Peter Eliades' Stockmarket Cycles has an average annual return of only 4.7% since its 12/31/84 inception while a buy and hold of the Wilshire5000 over the same period yielded an average annual return of +12.4%!
As Crawford and Eliades' returns indicate, most astrology is of little utility except for the effect it has on others. If you can predict how some will react to what the astrological cycles, perhaps say they will go long on this or that date, then you might be able to get in front of their recommended trades. I study this stuff hoping to find a way to get in front of trades like this but they are far and few between. Of course, the hedge funds are well aware of this, which makes it harder for the small investor.
It seems the stars are best for gazing upon.
The average annual return for "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" since 12/31/98 through June 30, 2006 is 16.1% while the S&P500 yielded an average annual return of only 2% over the same period.
Free Charts and Other Stuff
Since beating the market is hard for most to do, I recommend a "Core and Explore" approach to investing. Core means place 80 to 99% of your money into a CORE, buy-and-hold, no load, mutual fund portfolio and then EXPLORE with the remainder. To build your core portfolio, I suggest a diversified basket of index funds.
I welcome suggestions for future articles at Kirk's Market Thoughts.
Kirk Lindstrom:
DISCLAIMER: Answers & my words are general in nature, are not meant as specific investment advice, and do not necessarily represent the opinion of anyone but Kirk. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.
Much of the information for this post was originally posted on our old site.
